Winter 2015-16

[Carvers Gap]

yup the gfs is showing a warm up but to quick

Also, Feb 13th timeframe has that slider that the 12z Euro has had for two days. Weaker but there. Post Feb 15, it tries to snow right in the middle of a warm pattern. I will have to check, but seems Jan and/or Feb 96 was maybe at or above on temps w decent snows in the East.

[Carvers Gap]

You are posting stuff Carver on the GFS 384 hrs out?Sorry but i dont get it?

Based on post 714, I can see why...

[jaxjagman]

Based on post 714, I can see why...

Dont get what you are getting at still,sorry

[Carvers Gap]

Ian has a nice breakdown on the Euro and para from yesterday in the MA forum. Going to be interesting to see if the blocking can hold. Would gladly be wrong. Will check the 0z Euro in the AM...also, will be interesting to see if the d8 feature is still there.

[Carvers Gap]

Monday AM model roumdup...

If you want cold, the 0z Candian ensemble has it...reloading pattern.

0z GEFS(using it since I posted the opmaps above) supports the op.

0z EPS. Continues its habit of showing storms at d10-11. That manages to blunt the warmup on the mean. The control is very warm past d10.

Nice to see the warm-up delayed by a couple of days(on some ensembles) after spending some time this winter watching the cold get delayed. The models show the MJO fighting the cold every step after

d10. To what degree it wins will be interesting and is still not resolved. I certainly hope the warm is denied or blunted...but right now it is just delayed by 48-72 hrs on the EPS. The 0z GEM, which has had some skill this winter, is a reloading cold pattern. The 0z GEFS is prob a good compromise between the Euro and GEM.

[jaxjagman]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
925 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE WESTERN
RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVES
ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL TIMING AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES.  THE TIMING RELATES TO THE 06Z GFS FASTER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL TIMING.  THE PHASING DIFFERENCE LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST US WITH THE 00Z ECMWF QUITE
AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 0Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN USED FOR
DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND ADJUSTED SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES.

IN THE NORTHEAST/COASTAL WATERS...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES WITH POSSIBLE MULTI CIRCULATION
CENTERS EMBEDDED THEREIN. AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION DEPARTS...COLD
AIR SPILLS OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
A SECONDARY FRONT NEXT WEEKEND DRIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND FL
ON THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RESIDUAL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD CYCL0NIC CIRCULATION.  LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
EXPECTED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR WITH EACH COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEAST BUT NO MAJOR PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE EASTERN US.  TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA OVER THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND
THEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.

IN THE WEST...THE PRIMARY PRECIP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH THE
BIGGEST ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN MT WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI
AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT 13 FEB-SUN 14 FEB.

PETERSEN/FRACASSO

[1234snow]

The 6z GFS and the 0z Euro have our storm in the 9 day period. Hopefully we can bump this up a few days and get a real threat. It does make sense to have a storm right after a cold period going into a warmer pattern. That's how we got the big storm in January. Then maybe we warm up for a few weeks and have a colder than normal end of February and start of March?

[jaxjagman]

The 6z GFS and the 0z Euro have our storm in the 9 day period. Hopefully we can bump this up a few days and get a real threat. It does make sense to have a storm right after a cold period going into a warmer pattern. That's how we got the big storm in January. Then maybe we warm up for a few weeks and have a colder than normal end of February and start of March?

Yeah the storm in the 9 day period you talk about is going to be a thread the needle.If there is something we'd like it come in sooner than later like you said

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS and the 0z Euro have our storm in the 9 day period. Hopefully we can bump this up a few days and get a real threat. It does make sense to have a storm right after a cold period going into a warmer pattern. That's how we got the big storm in January. Then maybe we warm up for a few weeks and have a colder than normal end of February and start of March?

Good post. The Euro and GFS have been developing systems in mass past d10. In terms of winter wx, once inside d10 most then disappear. The pattern, as you say, should support a winter storm as the cold are recedes or relaxes depending on your perspective. Seems WPC likes a slower pattern and that would be in our favor. The Euro and EPS do show at the time some blocking that would force a slp into cold air. Whether that verifies, tough to tell...unless the system is inside of five or six days, the models have varied wildly(the DC storm being an exception).

[Carvers Gap]

Phase 8 of MJO could possiby be reached by Feb 25th per JB. He likes the idea of winter chances continuing into March.

[jaxjagman]

Nothing not to like with the teles -AO/EPO +PNA.Last week of Feb look cold after a brief warm up

[franklin NCwx]

Nice hit day 8 on the Euro.

[Carvers Gap]

Nice hit day 8 on the Euro.

Yep. A storm attacking retreating cold. Seems to be a theme this winter. Still a ways out there and the Euro has been bad at putting storms out there only to have them vanish a run later. It has had this for a few days. Still need a couple of days before I get excited...but the clown map is nice!!!

[franklin NCwx]

Yep. A storm attacking retreating cold. Seems to be a theme this winter. Still a ways out there and the Euro has been bad at putting storms out there only to have them vanish a run later. It has had this for a few days. Still need a couple of days before I get excited...but the clown map is nice!!!

yeah it's still out in fantasy range. Its been consistent in the ops and ensembles, hopefully it can work for us.

[1234snow]

Clown Euro map looks really good. 6+ from Nashville east to the mountains. There was a little warm nose in the valley but plenty of precip. The Plateau, NC/TN mountains, SEKY and SEVA have totals from 6-12 inches. To me the GFS and the Euro look similar at the 500 mb level so this may be a valid threat. Both models really are trying to cut off the energy east of us which could really help with cold air on the backside.

[tnweathernut]

Euro OP, ensembles, and control at 12z generally agree that a pretty wintry period is ahead of us for a large part of the mid-south. Should be a fun week....

[Carvers Gap]

Euro OP, ensembles, and control at 12z generally agree that a pretty wintry period is ahead of us for a large part of the mid-south. Should be a fun week....

Concur. Going to give it a couple of more runs, but I like the trends for the next ten days.

[franklin NCwx]

Ensembles look good for a nice event.

[Stovepipe]

The Euro is sniffing one out here. Too much consistency and ensemble support to ignore it. My exuberance is rising!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jaxjagman]

http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/2016/02/mid-february-storm-continued.html

[jaxjagman]

East Asia on the EPS and GEFS continue to advertise the heights lowering on the 14th of Feb

 

 

Todays AO index are still showing the AO going into the negative  then rising for a few days then headed back south

 

 

During the upcoming time frame we are also possibly seeing a -epo with a postive PNA rising

 

 

This has a cold look pattern to me is around the 22nd.I'm also seeing some possible severe weather around the 21st..The MJO is headed into p7 which is a transition period when it hits 8 in still a enso year it's  colder in the east

 

[Carvers Gap]

Nice post, Jax.

[jdrenken]

East Asia on the EPS and GEFS continue to advertise the heights lowering on the 14th of Feb

 

ea.png

 

Todays AO index are still showing the AO going into the negative  then rising for a few days then headed back south

 

5.png

 

During the upcoming time frame we are also possibly seeing a -epo with a postive PNA rising

 

4panel.png 1024×1024 .png

 

This has a cold look pattern to me is around the 22nd.I'm also seeing some possible severe weather around the 21st..The MJO is headed into p7 which is a transition period when it hits 8 in still a enso year it's  colder in the east

FebENMJOphase7gt12mT.gif 847×655 .png

 

ex.png

 

With the SW flow aloft, severe weather is a threat especially with how the actual OBS is usually either NW or North of what the BSR showed.

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

With the SW flow aloft, severe weather is a threat especially with how the actual OBS is usually either NW or North of what the BSR showed.

 

 

 

Thanks JR,I was wondering how quick the pattern is moving this tells me i was right my thinking and the models for the winter storm being shown long range is to quick to pull the cold out of the Valley.Of course,we need a storm

[Carvers Gap]

Thanks JR,I was wondering how quick the pattern is moving this tells me i was right my thinking and the models for the winter storm being shown long range is to quick to pull the cold out of the Valley.Of course,we need a storm

Nah, man. You and runman got some business to take care of... We can talk severe in a bit.

[jaxjagman]

Nah, man. You and runman got some business to take care of... We can talk severe in a bit.

ok man.You're going to make me cringe arent you,I will honor this ugly pic..lol

[Carvers Gap]

ok man.You're going to make me cringe arent you,I will honor this ugly pic..lol

Up to the Runman...he makes the call since he was brave enough to take the bet.

[Runman292]

ok man.You're going to make me cringe arent you,I will honor this ugly pic..lol

Sorry, but a deal is a deal, lol.

[Carvers Gap]

Sorry, but a deal is a deal, lol.

There you have it. Now, back to our regularly scheduled program of medium and extended weather discussion. Here's to hoping for a low ampitude phase 4 MJO and a high amplitude phase 8.

[1234snow]

The 0z GFS says what storm? Doesn't have much at all with the upper level energy. It's such a different looking run than the 12z Euro and 12z GFS. I'm interested in the Euro tonight. Might be time to throw a red flag if the Euro slips. Anyways this week is looking cold all the way to next Sunday. So we get a whole week of below normal temps and maybe a storm to end it.