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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Read this last night.Could be a wild ending to this winter.MJO is being shown going into p7 into the last week of Feb then into p8,after that winter is done but how long it takes to get out of the cold phase is another question if it's weak or a stronger signal.Could be March Madness

Isotherm has flat-out nailed the last two winter forecasts. DonS also had some good thoughts today. I still think the MJO has a say. I am really pulling for it to be partially muted.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Isotherm has flat-out nailed the last two winter forecasts. DonS also had some good thoughts today. I still think the MJO has a say. I am really pulling for it to be partially muted.

You quoted me to fast Carver.I didn't mean to leave out the MJO AT 8,1,2, these are cold phases.It's still interesting the pole is headed towards record temps.This could possibly send some of the coldest temps we've seen yet this winter even though the models arent showing this latter on.It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the MJO gets into 8

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

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Isotherm has flat-out nailed the last two winter forecasts. DonS also had some good thoughts today. I still think the MJO has a say. I am really pulling for it to be partially muted.

I'm with you on that buddy! ISO. and Don are both gems. ISO. has just been money in the bank. He has always been an great long range forecaster, going back several years. Just keeps getting better, what better there is left.lol.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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East Asia split flow look, temps will moderate some in the long range in the Valley.The euro looks good to me after the storm or possible storm long range, we'll see some moderation,the AO is headed north as well.This doesn't look to last past 4 days though.By this time the MJO is being shown going into a transition phase 7 headed towards 8 with even stronger signals today than the map Carver showed yesterday.Also during this time the AO is back on a decline.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Just glancing at the 18z GEFS. It actually warms-up quicker than the EPS.

Edit: Looks like 7-10 day warm-up. Some temps will be 8-10C above normal or more. Fourth week of Feb could go either way.

Don't buy it.Ridge building into Japan will rise the heights then shortly after you see the heights lower in South Asia,this is transient warm.Matter of fact this high should go north of us pulling colder air down.Might be dry but i don't see a big warm up long range,this isnt more than a four day warm up to me anyways

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Don't buy it.Ridge building into Japan will rise the heights then shortly after you see the heights lower in South Asia,this is transient warm.Matter of fact this high should go north of us pulling colder air down.Might be dry but i don't see a big warm up long range,this isnt more than a four day warm up to me anyways

We shall see. I am at +10 for the first five days of Feb. The models nailed it.
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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This is traditionally a time of the year where forecasting can be very difficult in all time frames. Numerical models often run astray due to increasing sun angle, shifts in the ENSO profile (a very big deal this year), and sudden introduction of snowpack (which can radically deviate from the existing snow line with the approach of calendar spring). Stratospheric warming events are not as important IF they develop after mid-February, as the tendency with higher sun percentages for warmer heights and cut-off lows often negates the effects of higher latitude ridging.

But since we have had an existing warmer phase at 10MB, and continue with same through the next 16 days, the ongoing +PNA/-AO blocking configuration should stick around for a while. There has been some variance on the longer term numerical models (which show a sudden semizonal turn, only to replace it a run or two later with the blocked set-up over North America). Ultimately, I favor a warm West vs. a mostly cold Central and East alignment for the rest of this month and into the middle of March.

The declining El Nino will prove important, as that feature has been fueling the strong, very low-latitude presence of the jet stream that cuts through Mexico and up along and off of the East Coast. You will see a very subtle poleward shift in the southern branch wind field beginning later this month. That will mean higher precipitation potential in Texas and the Deep South, across Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. This feature will not really translate far enough north to ease or end cold advection until late in March, as colder regimes will drift toward the edge of least resistance, which is what the subtropical jet flow represents.

For the February 17 - 21 period, analog outlooks seem to be a colder, more well-defined version of what the ensemble packages are telling us. Basically a warm West against a sometimes cold Central and East alignment. There is a consistent mark for a stronger Colorado/Trinidad "B" cyclone at the start of this time frame, which promotes the risk for important snowfall across the Midwest and Northeast and perhaps some stronger thunderstorms in parts of the Dixie states. Colder values will likely sweep in behind that system; note the return of strong +PNA, -AO and even perhaps a -NAO signature on the most recent GFS and GGEM ensemble packages.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE

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