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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The 12z EPS floods NA w/ warmth in the LR.   That is a consistent feature.  The mean and control try to sneak one more shot of cold in around d10.  Not sure if it will get here.  But....interestingly(and JB mentioned this as well) the EPS does try to rotate some bowling ball lows through the SE during the warm period.  Read the banter if you need any evidence on what those can do...  May just be rain, but depends entirely on where those lows track.  Looks like we are about to leave our period of tranquil weather.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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That is twelve days out though(as long as my eyes are reading that tiny print correctly)....Inside of ten days it has been tough to beat.   The GFS, IMO, has done better at long term temp trends and then the same forecast inside of ten days...it just loses it.  The EURO, OTH, has not been as good outside of ten days...but once inside of ten days it has been better.  Speaking only of the pattern, not specific events.  

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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That is twelve days out though(as long as my eyes are reading that tiny print correctly)....Inside of ten days it has been tough to beat.   The GFS, IMO, has done better at long term temp trends and then the same forecast inside of ten days...it just loses it.  The EURO, OTH, has not been as good outside of ten days...but once inside of ten days it has been better.  Speaking only of the pattern, not specific events.  

Even if the pattern is 12 days, it's not going to flip like that in a day,we are talking days before the time stamp

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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East Asia is showing the heights starting to buckle today.The AO is being shown in a couple days to start trending back into the negative territory.Though the tele says a negative PNA around the 15th i believe it will start showing it more positive.I believe we have a shot at something after V-Day or around that time.After this the models continue to see a decent ridge being building in east Asia  into Japan around the 11th,so we we should be looking at a warm up,somewhere around the 19th give or take

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

Posted
Posted

East Asia is showing the heights starting to buckle today.The AO is being shown in a couple days to start trending back into the negative territory.Though the tele says a negative PNA around the 15th i believe it will start showing it more positive.I believe we have a shot at something after V-Day or around that time.After this the models continue to see a decent ridge being building in east Asia  into Japan around the 11th,so we we should be looking at a warm up,somewhere around the 19th give or take

So, in essence, most of the month should be cooler than normal. I do not think that there are too many people that expected it to be cold into March; good example of how the MJO means something different in an El Nino Winter versus a usual winter imo

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

So, in essence, most of the month should be cooler than normal. I do not think that there are too many people that expected it to be cold into March; good example of how the MJO means something different in an El Nino Winter versus a usual winter imo

I think many expected winter to last into March. As for cooler than normal for the month of Feb...TRI stands at +13.1 after the first four days of the month. I think we erase most of that next week. Then, significant warming during week 3 will put us back in the plus column. The question...can the last week of Feb erase again above normal departures? We really need a head start this upcoming week along w a shortened warm period after. It is not a foregone conclusion that the month ends cooler than normal or warmer than normal. Will be interesting.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Here is the the current GFS ensemble MJO forecast...

 

post-769-0-30161700-1454687645_thumb.jpg

 

From the most recent MJO update here is their chart that they use for it.  I am aware that it has been mentioned that the MJO does not react quite the same during Ninos...but CPC used this correlating chart in their own Feb 1 update.  I have also attached the blurb which discusses confidence levels. 

 

post-769-0-13155800-1454687750_thumb.jpg

 

post-769-0-63452800-1454687784_thumb.jpg

 

 

As John mentioned, there is a bit of a lag.  In other words, what happens where the MJO is calculated does not immediately translate to wx here on the EC(that is my understanding).  As we now enter phase 4 of the MJO...look at the CPC map I posted above and compare it to the phase 4 map that correlates to the MJO.  Striking similarities when one looks at the axis of warmth and pools of normal temps.

 

The MJO update link below:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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I might add that the question is not "if" the MJO will have an impact on NA and specifically the EC.  The question is the duration of the effects from phases 4-6.  I think we will find they correlate pretty well w/ this mornings ensembles and OPs.  Not a perfect fit by any means, but the idea that NA will be flooded w/ Pacific air during the middle part of the month is there.  I think what most will be interested in is whether winter comes back, and personally I think it does late month into March.  That fits w/ what Jeff said earlier in the month before any of us was talking about this.  Now, the further south in latitude that one gets...the tougher it gets to have winter in early March.  For every winter one can name where it snows below I-40 in March(our forum area) I am pretty sure I can name several where it didn't.

 

All of that said, the southern jet is getting very active.  If we can catch a bowling ball low sliding across the south, it is possible that some folks could see snow during the warm-up.  Has happened before and surely will happen again.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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And if you are looking for hope, the 12z OP has it for you in terms of temps.  The third week of Feb on average is warm, but the fourth week the PNA ridge rebuilds.  That is the tnweathernut idea, and I am pulling for him to be right.  Long way out there and it is one run, but it illustrates some thinking that the fourth week has a chance to take a bite out of the MJO.  Also, JB noted today that the MJO is not showing as much amplitude today.  What does that mean for us?  Less time in phases 4,5, and 6.

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John1122

John1122

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Posted

Due to the lag time on the MJO, if it moves through 5,6 during the next 15 days, and other factors don't overwhelm it  (which they can because it's not nearly as big a factor on sensible weather in February as it is in late March or April) we're unlikely to cool down by the end of the month. More like the first week of March imo.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Isotherm has a great write-up about why he thinks the models are in error by breaking down the Pacific pattern. Was written mid-day yesterday. Provides a counter argument to the MJO ruling the pattern. He has been very accurate for at least the past two winters.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47634-february-pattern-disco/page-19

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Surely, somebody is going to talk the 12z Euro. On the road or I would... EPS as well. :-)

It's a "picture-perfect" setup for a mid-south/deep south snow (as shown on the Euro control run from 12z today).  (Day 9-12)

 

Like two dancers that are perfectly synchronized in their dance, the high and low placement and movement (in tandem) are the perfect depiction of how we see a deep south/southeast snowstorm.  Low pressure from Texas into the north central gulf, precipitation exploding, while making a turn and rapidly intensifying while traveling up the east coast.

 

That's the good news.  The bad news is............perfect setups around day 5/6 are hard enough.  Seeing a day 9/10 setups come to fruition is probably like winning the lottery.  

 

Nevertheless, beautiful to look at the maps.  The ensemble packages are showing a setup that could produce so a solution like this can't be dismissed.  Watching the trends in the models with regards to the longwave features will tell us a lot in the coming 3-4 days.

 

Nice way to run a warmup, eh?

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

I've been on the road too. It's my yearly Super Bowl at my brother's house in Chattanooga and I just got here. So since I'm coming back Monday evening, it's almost assuredly going to snow back home Sunday night.

 

I didn't see the Euro, but I'm gonna root for it judging by what Tnweather just said.

 

Like friggin clockwork every year!

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Not only is this looking impressive on todays euro.But the 700mb closes off to the west of the Valley with a 1044mb diving down  south from Canada into the lakes,the cyclogenesis would be awesome.At D10 this is tapping into the GOM with a river of moisture being pulling into.Of course we are talking long range,but you have to like this potential,it's not going to cut into the OV with that HP Nosing S

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John1122

John1122

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Not only is this looking impressive on todays euro.But the 700mb closes off to the west of the Valley with a 1044mb diving down  south from Canada into the lakes,the cyclogenesis would be awesome.At D10 this is tapping into the GOM with a river of moisture being pulling into.Of course we are talking long range,but you have to like this potential,it's not going to cut into the OV with that HP Nosing S

It's the same big event that was on the GFS  a few days ago that dumped 8-12 inches across the Eastern 3/4ths of the valley. That run there was a 1045 hp sliding into the plains with a gulf low getting rolling. Some form of it with the big high was on several runs, including one oddball run where the GFS tracked it from Missouri to West Virginia with a 1044 hp over Iowa and Illinois.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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It's the same big event that was on the GFS  a few days ago that dumped 8-12 inches across the Eastern 3/4ths of the valley. That run there was a 1045 hp sliding into the plains with a gulf low getting rolling. Some form of it with the big high was on several runs, including one oddball run where the GFS tracked it from Missouri to West Virginia with a 1044 hp over Iowa and Illinois.

The control is showing a streak of 12"from N/Al into the Valley,probably or maybe higher amounts for tys and cha.It would be about 6" or so as far S as Birmingham.Very possible.If would be lesser for us.

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

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The control is showing a streak of 12"from N/Al into the Valley,probably or maybe higher amounts for tys and cha.It would be about 6" or so as far S as Birmingham.Very possible.If would be lesser for us.

You and John need to reel that one in!  I saw the GFS run that showed that monster.  Good I guess 2 major models have keyed in on it just not at the same time.  

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Like i said earlier today i didnt feel the PNA looked right ,looking at east asia in my earlier post.Todays models even drop the heights into East Asia even more,i believe come tomorrow you'll see a bigger rise in the PNA on esrl.This is off yesterdays GEFS 12z run and today's  12z run

 

post-3027-0-19179600-1454719392_thumb.pnpost-3027-0-43806400-1454719399_thumb.pn

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

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Like i said earlier today i didnt feel the PNA looked right ,looking at east asia in my earlier post.Todays models even drop the heights into East Asia even more,i believe come tomorrow you'll see a bigger rise in the PNA on esrl.This is off yesterdays GEFS 12z run and today's  12z run

 

attachicon.gifb.pngattachicon.gifa.png

So I know iI should know this but that would translate into what exactly, warmer?

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Give that isotherm piece a quick look. Linked it above. He does a nice job of explaining the weaker amplitude MJO and that models are in err in breaking down the PNA. Really great write-up.

Read this last night.Could be a wild ending to this winter.MJO is being shown going into p7 into the last week of Feb then into p8,1,2,after that winter is done but how long it takes to get out of the cold phase is another question if it's weak or a stronger signal.Could be March Madness

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