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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
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Crazy, and I have KTRI on my fantasy snow team (along with KCSV) for later this week! Please oh please get a dusting, I'm pulling for you guys.

I would put those players on your team on the bench until at least February. Maybe put them on the IR.

Looking at the past day or so of runs from the GFS Christmas is looking really warm. Especially if that big trough drops out west. Yesterday's 12z run had 15c at the 850 level! The flow was coming all the way from Cuba!!!

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Great thoughts in here fellas. I agree the vortex is going to have to take a beating to really start to weaken. I'm not sure it does. My fear is that we get a favorable pattern in spring and it's to late for a lot of people. I'm even questioning February also as this pattern is very stable. It going to take a massive shift to disrupt it.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Weeklies have some decent systems around the 23-27-31.The BSR maps show the same for the 27 and 31 time frame.Should carry lots of rain ,winds and possible t-storms with each one.

 

post-3027-0-14204400-1450199823_thumb.pn

post-3027-0-21805200-1450199834_thumb.pn

 

The models continue look nasty for the upcoming around the 23-24 time frame

 

post-3027-0-99109600-1450200019_thumb.pn

 

Looking around east Asia coming up its going to warm up by that look coming up when we get into the 1st week of Jan,weeklies show the same.

 

So the time being,enjoy the sun,might be a rare thing coming up after the next couple days until after the New Year.

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Good thoughts.

I have read some thoughts about this pattern behaving more like a La Nina with this big ridge in eastern NA. Now personally, this reminds me of 97-98. I sort of dimiss the La Nina comparisons, because this December fits recent strong Nino climo...

 

Yep it is still classic El Nino. Warm North is verifying well. Subtropical jet stream is almost absent; otherwise, we would be cooler. Sure we get rain every few days, but clean FROPAs usher in the sun right after rain. Nina would be colder fronts. So it is El Nino minus the subtropical jet.

 

I like the sun if it is not going to snow anyway. Still hoping for snow after mid-January. Really El Nino does not change much in the South. Like a power hitter we expect lots of strike-outs and hope for the homerun.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Everyone ready for 2 weeks of rain? GFS has very little dry weather from Monday 12/21 through 1/3/16. Not huge totals, just on and off light rain and nearly constant cloud cover. I'm wondering what the record is for consecutive days with precipitation. This is Pacific NW weather.

If we dont get convective out downstream towards the gulf states we could get some good storms on the 23rd.,the euro this afternoon is showing this.But when you see convection towards this area you probably should use caution as it will pinch us off in the Valley.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Seeing some changes in the LR for the better...as in closer to normal. Maybe just after the New Year. Specifically, the set-up in the eastern Pacific is showing some signs of change. Hints of changes over Scandanavia. Pattern after the New Year looks blockier with the PV possibly getting agitated. The GFS at 0z showed some of this and to some extent, the 6z. There is growing spread among the models which hints at a change coming...

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

The long range does seem to be dumping cold in the East and keeping it here. It was varying wildly with each run, but the last several have had lots of cold air hitting the upper midwest and bleeding our way. Those big cold waves that break over the upper midwest are the ones that put the chill on the Tennessee Valley region. I like the western half of the valley to get the first wintry threats under that kind of scenario.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

The 12z and 18z GFS has a monster cutoff moving thru the Tennessee Valley next weekend. I'm really afraid about flooding concerns if this solution comes true. It's going to be a very wet week this week anyways.

27f6b78a751dff82e9106226fd20cdd2.jpg

It's actually what the euro showed yesterday but backed off today.LP that devolops along the boundary around La that is a apps runner with wrap around snow.This could go anyways.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

CPC teleconnection ensembles look 10x better than last week. PNA is forecast to go positive. AO looks to have an equal chance or better of going negative. NAO may go neutral. The models are going to flip all over the place with a potential pattern change(to a more Nino-ish). The torch is gone after first few days in Jan it appears. A decent cold shot and then...? A normal Nino temp pattern I think. Not perfect...but much better with maybe some events to track.

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

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CPC teleconnection ensembles look 10x better than last week. PNA is forecast to go positive. AO looks to have an equal chance or better of going negative. NAO may go neutral. The models are going to flip all over the place with a potential pattern change(to a more Nino-ish). The torch is gone after first few days in Jan it appears. A decent cold shot and then...? A normal Nino temp pattern I think. Not perfect...but much better with maybe some events to track.

 

Just take with a boulder of salt right now (the new pattern locking in)....It looks like a cooler period that second week of Jan but CFS which has been somewhat skillful this year and brings back more warmth as we go into the latter part of Jan....not that is necessarily going to work out that way but is worth being wary of. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Just take with a boulder of salt right now (the new pattern locking in)....It looks like a cooler period that second week of Jan but CFS which has been somewhat skillful this year and brings back more warmth as we go into the latter part of Jan....not that is necessarily going to work out that way but is worth being wary of.

My expectations have been low from the get go. I do think we are leaving the pattern that has left in its wake the warmest December for many. Now, it is very possible that the first cold shot will be transient followed a zonal pattern which is more like a Nino pattern. I can't say I think December was Nino-like with extreme heat and low precip totals. It makes my forecast for a warm winter with torchy times look good...but in the end the result was accurate but maybe with faulty reasoning - meaning December's heat has not been Nino-like. Seems to rival strong Nina winters. I think January will be slightly above for temps with plenty of rain...and will seem like a normal, dreary Nino winter pattern. Throw in some transient PNA ridges with a more negative AO, and we should have some things to track. I don't have access to the Euro weeklies...so would be interested in what the new ones show. As for the CFS, it seems to miss pattern changes. Just seems to lock on a pattern and ride it well past any change. But yes, it has done well so far, but at some point it will be wrong. I will take a normal Nino winter(with limited chances) over the December with no chances. As I mentioned in the fall, strong Nino winters are pretty ugly for snow. But some are not snowless. FWIW, I am more optimistic for January. I could certainly be wrong.
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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Just take with a boulder of salt right now (the new pattern locking in)....It looks like a cooler period that second week of Jan but CFS which has been somewhat skillful this year and brings back more warmth as we go into the latter part of Jan....not that is necessarily going to work out that way but is worth being wary of. 

It's more fun to take the outlook that says warmth returns with a boulder of salt.  :-)  

 

At the very least we have a small shakeup coming and hope that a return to normalish temperatures will provide an opportunity for someone in the mid-south by the finish of the second week of January.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
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I still feel like some of us will do more than okay this winter. I don't foresee anything in the Arctic department like we had the last two years, not likely to have snow on the ground for a month straight like the 2009-10 El Nino or last winter, but we have a shot or three and getting double digit snowfall from a single storm. 

 

I think I posted way back that only 1991-1992 was a snowless Nino for the majority of us and that even Knoxville seemed to get at least 6 inches in most Nino years.

 

Not looked at Nashville or Memphis totals for Nino years but I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't near normal in snow for a lot of them. 

 

Now we just need this to start behaving more like a typical Nino.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

IMO still appears we are on track to leave the pattern that has spawned at least a top 3 December for temps. Looks like a (+) PNA pattern with some zonal flow mixed in for good measure. A more realistic Nino pattern to finally show itself. The GFS caught the changes last year and it appears to have done so again. Extreme heat appears to be gone. Again, I like the look of the first week in January. Looks like someone in the SE may see some frozen stuff.

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

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IMO still appears we are on track to leave the pattern that has spawned at least a top 3 December for temps. Looks like a (+) PNA pattern with some zonal flow mixed in for good measure. A more realistic Nino pattern to finally show itself. The GFS caught the changes last year and it appears to have done so again. Extreme heat appears to be gone. Again, I like the look of the first week in January. Looks like someone in the SE may see some frozen stuff.

Yeah it finally looks somewhat established in the outlying EPS days...a good wedging pattern for the Carolinas and N GA...it does not looks so good for us...for now...perhaps Feb will get there. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Yeah it finally looks somewhat established in the outlying EPS days...a good wedging pattern for the Carolinas and N GA...it does not looks so good for us...for now...perhaps Feb will get there.

I was actually thinking back to December 2000 (nina winter) when they played a bowl game in Louisiana in the snow. A few looks lately on the GFS make me wonder if the deep south won't be dealing w/ some frozen precip. When the trough does arrive, looks like it will shunt a lot of the moisture south or east of us. But still a lot of spread on the models. Merry Christmas! Thanks for being the best mod on AmWx!
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