Winter 2015-16

[Carvers Gap]

GFS moved the LP about 150 miles south on 18z. I think it will keep heading south with it just due to the fact that it's ensembles have been well south of it's op track.

 

Still a bit of a longshot...but the 12z JMA, EPS, UKMET all have low positions in prime locations w a Miller A look.  GFS and Euro operationals did not look good at all for snow w/ a Miller Bish or hybrid look.  The questions that need to be answered in subsequent runs revolve around how much energy goes up west of the Apps, energy transfer timing if that happens, and where/when that primary low forms, and the strength of that low.  Long way to go yet.  Will be fun to watch either way.  Nice storm depicted on almost all models even if it isn't here.   Hope somebody gets hammered, even if it isn't us. 

[Carvers Gap]

That seems reasonable, I really think with the eps and ukie (JMA too?) south and rather strong it wouldn't take much to produce a nice snow. Interested in the ensembles at 18z.

 

Great point.  Really want to see where the low is on the ensembles...Overnight runs should be interesting.  At the very worst, something interesting to follow...

[John1122]

First system drops 1-3 still, second system drops 2-4. Both events look to favor north of 40 as of now. Southern Ky, SW Va, North Central Middle TN, Far NW TN, and the elevated areas pick up 4-6 inches on the GFS this week. Basically all the state gets some accumulation except right over Memphis. 

 

Virginia gets slammed with 18 inch totals just east of SW Va.

[John1122]

The 18z ensembles are slightly south of the 18z op run, probably 75 miles or so.

[Carvers Gap]

I do appreciate your thoughts. There's some things I have to admit.

1. I'm still pretty new when it comes to following the teleconnections, the different models, and other weather enthusiasts. I'm hoping that I'll be able to fully understand all of this in the future.

2. For most of my weather information, I still lean heavily on David Aldrich. The guy has been excellent when it comes to winter weather. I started watching him in January 2014, and in my opinion, he has been consistently the best meteorologist in East Tennessee when it came to predicting snow. He hasn't changed his thoughts of February being the snowiest month, so I'm not giving up on Winter.

 

Finally have had a bit of time to really dig into the Euro weeklies.  The control run during the last seven days or so of the 1.14 run (most recent) does show a very cold pattern for the US.  Shows a serious block in place developing around the 10th.  So, that fits with your idea of winter returning.  And really, it is a beautiful look.  Interestingly, the weeklies have a tendency to be warm in their fourth week.  So, when cold shows up on the weeklies...that gets my attention.

[Runman292]

Finally have had a bit of time to really dig into the Euro weeklies. The control run during the last seven days or so of the 1.14 run (most recent) does show a very cold pattern for the US. Shows a serious block in place developing around the 10th. So, that fits with your idea of winter returning. And really, it is a beautiful look. Interestingly, the weeklies have a tendency to be warm in their fourth week. So, when cold shows up on the weeklies...that gets my attention.

Perhaps that is why David Aldrich is still confident in February being a snowy month.

[Carvers Gap]

Perhaps that is why David Aldrich is still confident in February being a snowy month.

Could be. So, basically a pretty big warm-up relative to norms and relative to this current week beginning after the big EC storm(?) next weekend. Should last about two weeks. Some days may be 10+. Most will be 2-5+. Then, the second week of Feb we may get one last blast from winter. Now, there are two pieces to the weeklies...the control was good. The mean was not. I do see some signs of the NAO reloading in the LR.

Edit: Isotherm, who had a hot hand last winter and so far this winter, has a nice write-up on the main forum.

[John1122]

Getting warm wouldn't surprise me, and I personally don't think February is going to be particularly wintry, but I refuse to trust models beyond day 5 right now. They bring both major cool downs and major warm ups way to fast most of the time.

[Carvers Gap]

Getting warm wouldn't surprise me, and I personally don't think February is going to be particularly wintry, but I refuse to trust models beyond day 5 right now. They bring both major cool downs and major warm ups way to fast most of the time.

Some wild swings for sure. 0z runs tonight will be big for this week. Keep us updated if you pull the night shift.

[jaxjagman]

DT's storm looked much better today towards the end of next work week.The euro on the OZ went from a 1012 mb open wave to a closed 1004 mb going through mid Tn.Not trying to wishcast  but if the ens are right this would be further S possibly.Also the 250mb some slight phasing is being shown,would like to see this get better.But over all the euro was much better this afternoon

[1234snow]

Could be. So, basically a pretty big warm-up relative to norms and relative to this current week beginning after the big EC storm(?) next weekend. Should last about two weeks. Some days may be 10+. Most will be 2-5+. Then, the second week of Feb we may get one last blast from winter. Now, there are two pieces to the weeklies...the control was good. The mean was not. I do see some signs of the NAO reloading in the LR.

Edit: Isotherm, who had a hot hand last winter and so far this winter, has a nice write-up on the main forum.

I just read Isotherm's and Don's posts and it has made me feel a little bit better than I was feeling about February. It was interesting to note that Isotherm said that sharply rising values from a -AO/NAO led to increased chances of a East Coast storm. This seems to gel good with the end of week storm

Also it was interesting to note this from Don:

Today's AO is -4.916. That's the lowest figure since March 22, 2013 when the AO was -5.240. That figure has pushed the AO's average for meteorological winter to -0.075. To date 58% of days have been positive and 42% negative. However, 19% of days have been at or below -3.000.

So, it is interesting to me to see how we have had perfect indices and still nothing to show for it. The strong El Niño has really counter balanced that.

I'm still worried February is going to end up warmer than we hoped for due to the presence of the strong El Niño, +SOI, and unfavorable MJO phases. I hope the blocking can return to level those signals out. I'm not so sure a SSW event can help us out now.

I remember the CFS was really warm in December for January and then toward the last few days of the month turned toward a colder January. So far it has been right. I think the CFS has performed generally well this winter. Maybe it will back off the warm February idea in the last few days of January as it did for this month.

[Jed33]

This may belong in banter, and mods you can move it or delete it. David Aldrich is a great met for sure. He has been very bullish on this winter, despite what a lot of other people say. I like his forecasts a lot, because he always brings lot of energy. He's had a tough go of it so far though this winter, as he said he was confident Knoxville would see their first big snow between Jan 9-14. In most years, with all this blocking that we've had, you'd think sure, absolutely, but as several have said, the Pacific has been hard on us with the fast flow knocking down, or muting the PNA ridges that have been forming out west. This has definitely hampered our cold source from being as cold as it might have normally been. That said, the last time I heard him speak about his update, he said that he would actually increase his projections for snowfall this year. He has most of the valley in double digit projections. So, I don't know. He must see something I don't, because I just don't have that much faith in this winter producing that much snow. However, when he speaks I usually listen, because he is a pretty good met.

[Carvers Gap]

I just read Isotherm's and Don's posts and it has made me feel a little bit better than I was feeling about February. It was interesting to note that Isotherm said that sharply rising values from a -AO/NAO led to increased chances of a East Coast storm. This seems to gel good with the end of week storm

Also it was interesting to note this from Don:

So, it is interesting to me to see how we have had perfect indices and still nothing to show for it. The strong El Niño has really counter balanced that.

I'm still worried February is going to end up warmer than we hoped for due to the presence of the strong El Niño, +SOI, and unfavorable MJO phases. I hope the blocking can return to level those signals out. I'm not so sure a SSW event can help us out now.

I remember the CFS was really warm in December for January and then toward the last few days of the month turned toward a colder January. So far it has been right. I think the CFS has performed generally well this winter. Maybe it will back off the warm February idea in the last few days of January as it did for this month.

Good write-up. Hey, also am no longer on Twitter...good to see your thoughts. Will definitely be watching the cfs2 during the coming days to see where it goes w Feb. Right now it is warm. But its submonthly has been quite snowy. Very conflicting models looks for Feb...but all seem to agree week one is warm.

[Carvers Gap]

This may belong in banter, and mods you can move it or delete it. David Aldrich is a great met for sure. He has been very bullish on this winter, despite what a lot of other people say. I like his forecasts a lot, because he always brings lot of energy. He's had a tough go of it so far though this winter, as he said he was confident Knoxville would see their first big snow between Jan 9-14. In most years, with all this blocking that we've had, you'd think sure, absolutely, but as several have said, the Pacific has been hard on us with the fast flow knocking down, or muting the PNA ridges that have been forming out west. This has definitely hampered our cold source from being as cold as it might have normally been. That said, the last time I heard him speak about his update, he said that he would actually increase his projections for snowfall this year. He has most of the valley in double digit projections. So, I don't know. He must see something I don't, because I just don't have that much faith in this winter producing that much snow. However, when he speaks I usually listen, because he is a pretty good met.

Good post. I have not read his forecast for this winter. I think most of us who follow wx know that seasonal forecasts are very difficult. I have some mets who I regard highly that forecasted big numbers. Like I said earlier, I normally discount big seasonal forecast numbers...but I still highly respect the forecasters nonetheless. But to me a seasonal forecast is about as tough as it gets. This winter is a great example. But I will say our own mets, Jeff and Mr Bob, have been been excellent this winter.

[Jed33]

Yes Jeff and Mr. Bob are outstanding! Always love to see their posts.

[jaxjagman]

We'll see what happens but it sure looks like thunder storms  towards Feb 1st.Possibly one of these power house storms where temps drop rapid behind a strong cold front?Not sure yet

[jaxjagman]

We'll see how this plays out

 

[1234snow]

GFS is a little more amped. It goes on to crush DC.

[1234snow]

Just not a believer as some of you are.Enso is still in control,going to be tough to get any snow beyond after this month.Tri yeah maybe ,rest of us,good luck

Check out around hour 222-240 on the GFS, Jax. It has another bomb that covers western TN.

[1234snow]

0z GFS Ensemble members. A big mix between Miller A's and B's on this run. A few big dogs. Check out e14

[John1122]

Looks like 16 of 22 have pretty big hits for parts of the valley if not all of it. Basically all have some accumulated snow.

[John1122]

The OP dropped a good dumping on quite a few of us, rain to very heavy snow. The huge totals are creeping down through Kentucky on there and lots of Tennessee piles up 3-6 inches.

[Daniel Boone]

The OP dropped a good dumping on quite a few of us, rain to very heavy snow. The huge totals are creeping down through Kentucky on there and lots of Tennessee piles up 3-6 inches.

you can still distinctly see the old thorn great valley between the smokies and Cumberland's effect. Downslope compression/heating. Sometimes, I wonder if the tn valley would do better snow wise if the mountain chains weren't there, especially the smokies.

[Runman292]

you can still distinctly see the old thorn great valley between the smokies and Cumberland's effect. Downslope compression/heating. Sometimes, I wonder if the tn valley would do better snow wise if the mountain chains weren't there, especially the smokies.

Another reason that the valley amounts vary is the wind direction. If the winds are coming from the Northwest or West, then the valley won't typically get much. However, if the winds are coming from the East or Northeast, then they valley can get some good snow.

[1234snow]

0z Euro run is out. It really was a close one this time. The wedge really is helping out east of the mountains. It seemed to be more of a miller A this time. Some energy made it west of the Apps which was just enough to warm us up too much. Overall it was less amped than the GFS which may be a good thing with warm advection.

[John1122]

you can still distinctly see the old thorn great valley between the smokies and Cumberland's effect. Downslope compression/heating. Sometimes, I wonder if the tn valley would do better snow wise if the mountain chains weren't there, especially the smokies.

If the bottom of the valley wasn't open it'd be much better for the whole thing. If just south of Chattanooga there was a mountain chain running SW to NE like the one from this area over to Cumberland Gap it would disrupt the warm nose that creeps up the valley at times. 

[John1122]

0z Euro run is out. It really was a close one this time. The wedge really is helping out east of the mountains. It seemed to be more of a miller A this time. Some energy made it west of the Apps which was just enough to warm us up too much. Overall it was less amped than the GFS which may be a good thing with warm advection.

 

Still a lot of solutions possible, we may or may not have seen the right one. As of now almost all of them are bringing some snow to the area.

[jaxjagman]

Check out around hour 222-240 on the GFS, Jax. It has another bomb that covers western TN.

We'll see,the low is going towards Eurasia by the GEFS.Even if you get a -AO where does the cold air go?Even if you get the 850's into the Valley into Feb this will be more in influenced by an on going Nino pattern with the enso still 1-1.5C,I just dont buy the cold look.Maybe i'm wrong,but i still believe winter is done by Feb. in the Valley

 

[John1122]

Standard MRX terse disco regarding the Friday/Saturday event.

 

 

 

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE SW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM COLD AIR MOVES BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 30S.

[John1122]

Nashville disco regarding system 2.

 

 

THE FAUCET SHUTS OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE A
SECOND SYSTEM STARTS TO PLAGUE THE STATE. THIS IS ANOTHER GOOD NEWS-
BAD NEWS SCENARIO. THE GOOD NEWS...THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A MIX
OF THINGS GOING ON. RAINS ON THURSDAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLD
AIR FILTER BACK INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BAD NEWS...THE
RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE
TRACK OF THIS LATE-WEEK SYSTEM IS BAD FOR US. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD SPELL A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOW STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...A 10 TO
1 SNOW RATIO WITH CURRENT QPFS SHOULD YIELD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE RAIN FROM THURSDAY...WE CAN PROBABLY CUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN HALF COMPARED TO WHAT THEY COULD BE. EITHER
WAY...THERE WOULD BE A LOT OF TRAVEL IMPACTS. AGAIN...FOR NOW...THIS
IS 5 DAYS AWAY AND THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN WHAT ENDS UP OCCURRING. MORE TO COME ON THIS.