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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

The next 7 days have a good chance of being cold and getting a couple events.

I would totally agree with you here.  Just glancing at the ensembles from last night one would think after the minor chance of snow Sunday morning we will have another more substantial system to at least track.  I hope we (and you guys) can score a nice one before we relax the pattern into the last week or so of January (and probably the first several days of Feb).

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

Posted
Posted

I would totally agree with you here.  Just glancing at the ensembles from last night one would think after the minor chance of snow Sunday morning we will have another more substantial system to at least track.  I hope we (and you guys) can score a nice one before we relax the pattern into the last week or so of January (and probably the first several days of Feb).

I like the chances and like you said should be fun to track at least!

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

I would totally agree with you here. Just glancing at the ensembles from last night one would think after the minor chance of snow Sunday morning we will have another more substantial system to at least track. I hope we (and you guys) can score a nice one before we relax the pattern into the last week or so of January (and probably the first several days of Feb).

hopefully the midweek deal will pan out for everyone. I saw some good hits on the euro ensembles for next Friday. I'm hoping we can get our first miller a before the pattern relaxes.
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

18z GFS has weak sauce for the mid week storm (maybe an inch or two at best for some northern areas) then cuts the Friday storm for a rainer.

Nothing is easy for us is it?EPS and GEFS are going in different directions now.EPS is surpressed going towards N/Fl, GEFS has a slider going through Cen Ala,which is how we get good storms here by the GEFS.Like you mentioned before Euro is keying on the mid week and GFS is going through the Valley the latter part...sigh..

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

The MJO is being shown going into phase 3 and 4(unfavorable phases in Jan and Feb) with the PV getting knocked around the wrong side of the globe coming up in ten days,it wouldn't surprise me to see it settle back to the pole and croakTop this off with the enso still hanging on,i dont see much left of this winter heading into long range into Feb

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Just looking at model trends the past couple of days along w the AO rising and NAO skyrocketing into positive territory...It would seem that warm(a few torch days but generally +2 to +4) temps will be the rule for much of NA during the last week of Jan and the first week of Feb at a minimum. It is on the table that a prolonged cold spell will not occur in Feb. My hope at this point is that the models have been iffy and may be wrong. Some strong Nino years did see winter leave and never return. Others would see a limited return of winter inf Feb. I think the forecasts that had E TN at 150-200% of normal should be disregarded at this point. And to be honest, I disregarded them as soon as I saw them. I always have to remind myself that Super Ninos(the recent ones) offer very few snow chances. At KTRI we have not even had a swing and a miss this winter. This does not mean it won't snow. Strong Ninos can offer late season surprises. Juiced jets and brief cold shot will sometimes combine for a winter storm. This is definitely not 98...January has had normal temps. What is on the horizon, however...let's hope the models don't verify. During this next week the window is still open, but after next weekend...chances should be limited for a minimum of two weeks.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The MJO is being shown going into phase 3 and 4(unfavorable phases in Jan and Feb) with the PV getting knocked around the wrong side of the globe coming up in ten days,it wouldn't surprise me to see it settle back to the pole and croakTop this off with the enso still hanging on,i dont see much left of this winter heading into long range into Feb

The MJO has been a poor indicator this winter IMO...but I can't disagree with the rest. Very hostile pattern in regards to winter looming in the medium to LR. It is possible the models are wrong. They have been trying to break down the current pattern since the beginning. But it seems they have an actual handle on things with a pattern change to zonal beginning late next weekend. After this week, we have five more weeks of winter roughly, excluding March. We lose a couple of weeks min due to a warm pattern and we have about three weeks left.

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Runman292

Runman292

Posted
Posted

Just looking at model trends the past couple of days along w the AO rising and NAO skyrocketing into positive territory...It would seem that warm(a few torch days but generally +2 to +4) temps will be the rule for much of NA during the last week of Jan and the first week of Feb at a minimum. It is on the table that a prolonged cold spell will not occur in Feb. My hope at this point is that the models have been iffy and may be wrong. Some strong Nino years did see winter leave and never return. Others would see a limited return of winter inf Feb. I think the forecasts that had E TN at 150-200% of normal should be disregarded at this point. And to be honest, I disregarded them as soon as I saw them. I always have to remind myself that Super Ninos(the recent ones) offer very few snow chances. At KTRI we have not even had a swing and a miss this winter. This does not mean it won't snow. Strong Ninos can offer late season surprises. Juiced jets and brief cold shot will sometimes combine for a winter storm. This is definitely not 98...January has had normal temps. What is on the horizon, however...let's hope the models don't verify. During this next week the window is still open, but after next weekend...chances should be limited for a minimum of two weeks.

I disagree with your overall view. I do think that the el nino is weakening and that February and March is going to be colder than average. I think we're going to see a February similar to last year.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I disagree with your overall view. I do think that the el nino is weakening and that February and March is going to be colder than average. I think we're going to see a February similar to last year.

Know this, I generally lean cold on my "forecasts." And I don't mind disagreement. We will see. The ensembles certainly don't support the cold camp at this point. The CFS2 is quite warm for Feb as well the Euro weeklies. March, we will see. Sometimes, Ninos can hold surprises. I will gladly be wrong. As for a Feb like last year, I had 23-24" in about 17 days w multiple events, that is prob not happening. I lived in Knoxville during several moderate to strong Ninos in Knoxville in the mid 90s and we were blanked. One area I see as a positive is that the GOM has been open for business. If the jet can slow, we might have a chance, even w wamer than normal temps. I don't think I said the Feb would be above normal, just the first week or two...But very few models show a cold Feb at this point. Most normal to much above.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I disagree with your overall view. I do think that the el nino is weakening and that February and March is going to be colder than average. I think we're going to see a February similar to last year.

The Nino has weakened much slower than many thought which has led to some potential forecast busts. Right now, I see a cool spring followed by a very warm late summer and fall due to a potentially strong La Nina. Normally, I roll w cold Februarys for Nino years, but the timing of the pullback may make that tough.

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Runman292

Runman292

Posted
Posted

The Nino has weakened much slower than many thought which has led to some potential forecast busts. Right now, I see a cool spring followed by a very warm late summer and fall due to a potentially strong La Nina. Normally, I roll w cold Februarys for Nino years, but the timing of the pullback may make that tough.

I do appreciate your thoughts. There's some things I have to admit.

1. I'm still pretty new when it comes to following the teleconnections, the different models, and other weather enthusiasts. I'm hoping that I'll be able to fully understand all of this in the future.

2. For most of my weather information, I still lean heavily on David Aldrich. The guy has been excellent when it comes to winter weather. I started watching him in January 2014, and in my opinion, he has been consistently the best meteorologist in East Tennessee when it came to predicting snow. He hasn't changed his thoughts of February being the snowiest month, so I'm not giving up on Winter.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I do appreciate your thoughts. There's some things I have to admit.

1. I'm still pretty new when it comes to following the teleconnections, the different models, and other weather enthusiasts. I'm hoping that I'll be able to fully understand all of this in the future.

2. For most of my weather information, I still lean heavily on David Aldrich. The guy has been excellent when it comes to winter weather. I started watching him in January 2014, and in my opinion, he has been consistently the best meteorologist in East Tennessee when it came to predicting snow. He hasn't changed his thoughts of February being the snowiest month, so I'm not giving up on Winter.

Great met! Good to hear. I am not throwing in the towel either. I have seen it snow even in very warm patterns. Just much more difficult. And I don't mind disagreement. I always appreciate straight forward people. Please keep sharing information. One thing I know...most folks (who are not mets) are wrong more than they are right. That definitely includes me.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

MRX evening discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

325 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BE ON THE LOW JUST OFF

THE TEXAS COAST AS IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MOVE

INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER

AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE

RAP INDICATES THAT THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PARTIALLY PHASE

ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING

BELOW 1000 MB. WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LESS THAN 12-24 HOURS

OUT...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DETAILS TO WORK OUT. THE NAM KEEPS

THE LOW WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A LIMITED

AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. THE

GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND

AREA OF FLORIDA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...THE NAM DOES SHOW SIMILAR PW

VALUES TO THE GFS JUST NOT AS MUCH LIFT DUE TO THE LOW TRACK. THE

09Z SREF WAS IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE MEMBERS SHOWING AS MUCH AS

2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY BUT LOOKING AT THE 15Z SREF IT

APPEARS THE NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A GOOD BIT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW FAR NORTHWEST WILL

THE NORTHERN BAND OF PRECIPITATION BE. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE

SUGGESTED THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW

FREEZING BEFORE THE MOISTURE ARRIVES. MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS TO

BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW

ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST REAL SNOWFALL

THREAT OF THE SEASON...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AND ADVISORY

FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE. SNOW WILL

BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (MOUNTAINS) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY

MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ARCTIC RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL

DOMINATE THE PATTERN PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD

NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST

FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET

DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE

VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF SNOW..SLEET..AND RAIN

IS ALSO ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE/GEORGIA STATE-LINE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND ARCTIC HIGH EAST OF THE

AREA WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NEXT

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENT MEDIUM

RANGE MODELS SHOW A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE

VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DEPENDING ON EXACT PATH OF

SURFACE/850MB LOW WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS THE

STRONGEST SYSTEM DURING THE EXTENDED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF

PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FOR SATURDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER WILL BE PULLED ACROSS

THE AREA WITH SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.

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dwagner88

dwagner88

Posted
Posted

Latest GFS has at least a couple inches of snow here before a change to rain area wide on Wednesday. Temps in the mid 20's when precip starts, rising to the mid 30's by the end of precip. Close to something interesting. I wouldn't exclude tomorrow either. May not amount to much, but one of Chattanooga's worst traffic nightmares occurred with only 1.5" of snow 2 years ago.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

We might pull 1-3 out on Wednesday. Then it looks too warm for Friday to get much done. Even with the southern track the Euro puts the heat over Tennessee and rains on us for the most part.

Those were my thoughts, to be more excited for the weaker system than the Friday system. The EPS low locations dont show a cutter, but are clustered mostly in the northern parts of the gulf states (hints of a Miller B there too). Maybe we can achieve a changeover in the northern parts of the valley with this one ....or maybe we have a colder profile up top as that system comes into view? Still time to trend into something more substantial than a mostly rain senario.

We may need a thread for the first system. Most modeling is showing 1-3 at this point in the northern parts of the Valley and we are under 100 hours. Somebody fire one up.....

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

The GFS is on an island right now. The GEFS,Euro, EPS, Ukie all have a low going over Georgia and South Carolina. The Euro had a slight Miller B look but nothing like the GFS. It had some low pressure making it into the TN valley. That's why the Euro was too warm for the Friday storm.

I think we will see colder solutions if this trends to solely a Miller A. If it turns out to be a Miller B then we are cooked.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

GFS moved the LP about 150 miles south on 18z. I think it will keep heading south with it just due to the fact that it's ensembles have been well south of it's op track.

That seems reasonable, I really think with the eps and ukie (JMA too?) south and rather strong it wouldn't take much to produce a nice snow. Interested in the ensembles at 18z.

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