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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Finally got under a decent band here in SE Ky..Maybe will get a deck coating before everything moves out..Was hoping for at least an inch but it is what it is..Anyways hopefully something will develop this weekend for the Tenn. valley..If Sunday's system can start to trend inland some maybe there's hope.

 

Always good to see lugnuts posting!  Keep us updated.

 

Have limited Internet due to power being out and bad signal here. But getting light snow and strong winds right now. Not been able to look at any 12z suite models.

 

Hate to hear that.  Wind knock it out?  Definitely will be interested on your take once you are connected to the big pipe again.  The 12z Euro is a different look again - thankfully.  Looks to erroneously(?) leave energy in the Southwest at 186.  Messes up the timing on the rest of the run.  Also, it lets a "ridge" build ahead of it that might be more transient if the system progressed out of the Southwest like the GFS does it. 

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JayCee

JayCee

Posted
Posted

Today's event for a few in southeast Ky.  :)

 

It appeared that areas from Louisville to Lexington and southeast from there got in on some pretty good snow bands--  mainly north of Hal Rogers parkway (formerly Daniel Boone Parkway).  Some of the snow bands appeared to be pretty heavy at times.

South of there, it wasn't quite as heavy or consistent. 

 

 

 

a68096b7f059999c286a8b558041b875.jpg

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Always good to see lugnuts posting!  Keep us updated.

 

 

Hate to hear that.  Wind knock it out?  Definitely will be interested on your take once you are connected to the big pipe again.  The 12z Euro is a different look again - thankfully.  Looks to erroneously(?) leave energy in the Southwest at 186.  Messes up the timing on the rest of the run.  Also, it lets a "ridge" build ahead of it that might be more transient if the system progressed out of the Southwest like the GFS does it. 

 

I'm currently not trusting any model past day 5-6. Even then I'm wary of them. They've been too all over the place to look at that closely. From what I understand, if the blocking does relax is supposed to be short lived, there's a major SSW underway currently which should tank the AO again late month.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I'm currently not trusting any model past day 5-6. Even then I'm wary of them. They've been too all over the place to look at that closely. From what I understand, if the blocking does relax is supposed to be short lived, there's a major SSW underway currently which should tank the AO again late month.

No doubt. The 12z Euro brought some "blocking" back to the Davis Straights that was not there previously late in the period. Even model trends I am now wary of... Hope you keep that power on!
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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

The 12z GEFS is fairly bullish on a minor to moderate snow event for early next week.  The last 4 GEFS have shown potential.  Just looking for consistency anywhere I can find it in this chaos.

Unfortunately, the Euro has also been consistent...........just not the consistency we want to see.  haha

Overall, the Euro ensembles do seem to have several nice hits on them for parts of the TN Valley region over the coming 10 days.

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

Each of the last 4 or 5 GEFS mean snow maps have gotten progressively "beefier".  Here is 18z:

 

BSK8Rzl.gif

 

There are some glimmers of hope in the EPS as well but not this good, yet.  Also, the EPS 45 day snow outlook is neat to look at.  The mean is about 5 inches for BNA, 8 for TYS, and over 10 for TRI.  They're telling us there's a chance!

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

With those very cold 850s and the thickness during the precip being 522 or lower, this looks like it would be a valley wide 2-8 inch snow event if you take the qpf the GFS throws out. I suspect the precip amounts with the given track would be higher than this actually. Man not be a bad idea, as mentioned, to have a short term threat thread.

 

gfs_namer_117_precip_p24.gif

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I saw that.  It would be awesome for both of our areas (east TN and western NC) if it were to happen that way.  I just think a solution closer to the Euro is more likely. Euro is trying, but we are in it's wheelhouse and it just doesn't look like we have enough time to create the changes needed to produce snow.  That's why I haven't really been posting in our forum about the possibility it to this point.  

 

I don't have the feeling that winning the powerball lottery is more likely though, so that's a pretty good start.  haha

 

That said, I just don't think there's enough room to amplify. If we moved the entire southeast a couple of hundred miles east I'd be all over it. :-)  Maybe the 12z guidance comes in today and gives us more hope.  I am not optimistic, but I will look to see what changes at 12z............ so I haven't completely punted either.  Percentage wise, I am 90/10 at this point, against a meaningful snow for the southeast and TN Valley.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I saw that. It would be awesome for both of our areas (east TN and western NC) if it were to happen that way. I just think a solution closer to the Euro is more likely. Euro is trying, but we are in it's wheelhouse and it just doesn't look like we have enough time to create the changes needed to produce snow. That's why I haven't really been posting in our forum about the possibility it to this point.

I don't have the feeling that winning the powerball lottery is more likely though, so that's a pretty good start. haha

That said, I just don't think there's enough room to amplify. If we moved the entire southeast a couple of hundred miles east I'd be all over it. :-) Maybe the 12z guidance comes in today and gives us more hope. I am not optimistic, but I will look to see what changes at 12z............ so I haven't completely punted either. Percentage wise, I am 90/10 at this point, against a meaningful snow for the southeast and TN Valley.

I agree, I'm just waiting for the gfs to come in flat.

I do remember a storm last year inside 72 hours that the euro and it's ensembles failed on for our area. It continually showed an over running event for our with 12" totals and inside 72 hours everything jumped into ky and west Virginia. Not saying that's how this plays out but the euro has faltered a lot since it got an upgrade in 2011.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

...SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THURS...
...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS...
...DEEPENING LOW CENTER TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST FRI AND SAT...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECENS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO GRADUALLY EAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON THURS
WHILE ALSO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THURS.
THEREAFTER...THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FRI AND SAT AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN.
SOME OF THIS DEEPENING WILL BE TIED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 00Z UKMET IS A
LEFT-TRACKING OUTLIER TO THE SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY THE 00Z CMC BECOMES A LEFT-TRACKING
OUTLIER AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND IMPACTS NEW
ENGLAND. THE 12Z NAM IS LIKELY TAKING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE
RIGHT AND IS RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE EAST
COAST LOW TRACK. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN
CAMPS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL A BIT RIGHT OF THE 12Z GFS. THE
00Z ECENS MEAN SUGGESTS THE 00Z ECMWF IS TOO FAR TO THE
RIGHT...AND IS EVEN LEFT OF THE 12Z GFS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE 06Z
GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT IS CLOSE
OTHERWISE TO ITS TRACK. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED...BUT WILL PREFER TO RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECENS MEAN AT THIS POINT.

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