Winter 2015-16

[Carvers Gap]

I continue to look at the model suite and see no impressive cold air anywhere...until that changes it is going to be difficult to get a major snow storm in our area....higher elevations should get some but other than a few fringe events, we are going to struggle. Look back at 2010 when we had such a deeply negative AO and we pretty much stayed below 32 degrees for over a week. We are struggling to get down to the low 20s in most areas next week. The trouble when El Nino goes over the top....

I think Jeff mentioned it yesterday and WxSouth mentioned it last night...the source region is not as cold as it normally would be due to the extreme warmth in December. The LR models are not warm by any means, but not frigid either. We are currently below normal at KTRI(we will see what today brings). But it feels much colder than it actually is since we are 20-40 degress colder than those mid 70s days a little over a week ago. I suspect we finish close to normal in temps for the month. What I have seen trend on the models for the past couple of days is that the normal cold gets easily pushed out of the way by a warm southern jet in the medium range. I still think we get a good bout of winter sooner than later. But I am like you, it would greatly help to have real polar or Arctic cold for an event to tap into...and a storm track not into the Lakes. I have seen normal January cold get it done...but the pattern seems less helpful than the temps.

[Mr Bob]

I think Jeff mentioned it yesterday and WxSouth mentioned it last night...the source region is not as cold as it normally would be due to the extreme warmth in December. The LR models are not warm by any means, but not frigid either. We are currently below normal at KTRI(we will see what today brings). But it feels much colder than it actually is since we are 20-40 degress colder than those mid 70s days a little over a week ago. I suspect we finish close to normal in temps for the month. What I have seen trend on the models for the past couple of days is that the normal cold gets easily pushed out of the way by a warm southern jet in the medium range. I still think we get a good bout of winter sooner than later. But I am like you, it would greatly help to have real polar or Arctic cold for an event to tap into...and a storm track not into the Lakes. I have seen normal January cold get it done...but the pattern seems less helpful than the temps.

Bingo....whether or not the sensible weather follows the exact pattern of 82-83 or 97-98 this fact remained pretty much true for both super El Ninos.....It is not really about how warm it was in December or if we are totally different day to day than those two analogs....We will see what Feb holds and you guys up in the NE corner will get some but the Great Valley is going to struggle to get much unless it is purely dynamically driven. 

[Carvers Gap]

Bingo....whether or not the sensible weather follows the exact pattern of 82-83 or 97-98 this fact remained pretty much true for both super El Ninos.....It is not really about how warm it was in December or if we are totally different day to day than those two analogs....We will see what Feb holds and you guys up in the NE corner will get some but the Great Valley is going to struggle to get much unless it is purely dynamically driven.

Was talking about the source region in Canada being above normal for December. I may be wong on that...not sure. So, when the teleconnections flipped, there was not the usual cold air to draw from. Cold by their standards, not here like Jeff was mentioning yesterday. My thinking, is eventually the block does its work and suppresses the storm track enough that we have winter wx chances in the Valley, not just NE TN. But admittedly, other than strong teleconnections there is little support on the models right now for winter wx. Normal temps, yes. Snow, no. Also, it will be interesting to see it the extreme blocking actually develops to near record levels. For me, rain or snow, it will be interesting to see which is the trump card...super Nino or very strong blocking. Obviously, the super Nino has the lead at this point. With 12+ Dec temps and no snow outside of a trace for the usual areas...tough to argue otherwise. Have a great Friday, man!

[jaxjagman]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2016

VALID 12Z MON JAN 11 2016 - 12Z FRI JAN 15 2016

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...PATTERN/WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
AND THREATS...

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLE WELL CLUSTERED GUDIANCE FROM THE 18
UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. LEANED
INCREASING WEIGHT ON THE ENSEMBLES DAYS 5-7 CONSISTENT WITH
INCREASING FORECAST SPREAD. THIS SOLUTION PROVIDES DECENT
CONTINUITY.

ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT SPLITS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WITH A NRN STREAM
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED NW US/WRN CAN/INTERIOR AK
MEAN RIDGE. A SERIES OF POTENT IMPULSES DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE
RIDGE PERIODICALLY REINFORCE A WINTERY EAST-CENTRAL CANADA/LOWER
48 MEAN TROUGH IN A PATTERN FAVORING SEVERAL LOWER LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSIONS. A DEEP LEAD LOW EXITS ERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSION OF MODEST PCPN ORGANIZING
CLIPPER LOWS AND POST SYSTEM ENHNACED COOLING THAT SHOULD ENHANCE
BOUTS OF GREAT LAKES EFFECT SNOWS.

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM PACIFIC ENERGY CUTS UNDERNEATH IN SEPARATED
FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST/SW US ALONG WITH SWATHS OF MODEST PCPN.
SYSTEMS SUBSEQUENTLY EJECTING EASTWARD OUT ACROSS THE US SRN TIER
WILL HAVE UNCERTAIN NRN STREAM FLOW/COLD AIR INTERACTIONS...BUT DO
OFFER SOME SYSTEM/PCPN DEVELOPMENT THREAT BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

SCHICHTEL

[John1122]

Was talking about the source region in Canada being above normal for December. I may be wong on that...not sure. So, when the teleconnections flipped, there was not the usual cold air to draw from. Cold by their standards, not here like Jeff was mentioning yesterday. My thinking, is eventually the block does its work and suppresses the storm track enough that we have winter wx chances in the Valley, not just NE TN. But admittedly, other than strong teleconnections there is little support on the models right now for winter wx. Normal temps, yes. Snow, no. Also, it will be interesting to see it the extreme blocking actually develops to near record levels. For me, rain or snow, it will be interesting to see which is the trump card...super Nino or very strong blocking. Obviously, the super Nino has the lead at this point. With 12+ Dec temps and no snow outside of a trace for the usual areas...tough to argue otherwise. Have a great Friday, man!

Extreme blocking drove the December pattern, just in unfavorable areas for us to see cold or snow. 

 

The models are still all over the place but -10s to -20s over Southern Canada and the upper Midwest should easily be able to be tapped for snow here I'd think. 2009-10 was cold but it was never frigid here. I'll have to look, but I don't think we got below 0 that winter. We just never got very warm from mid to late January until March.

[John1122]

The 12z is absolutely beautiful. Shows a perfect miller A that brings accumulating snow to most of the Valley. The details of precip amounts don't matter but the track is perfect. It's also inside 240, so hopefully the GFS is on to something.

[Mr Bob]

12Z Euro is sure to "release the hounds"...Sooey, polar piggy! 

[Mr Bob]

Well if this holds up on subsequent runs guess I will be deleting my morning posts! 

[Mr Bob]

I know...everyone is complaining about the squashed possibilities for the weekend but I would feel pretty good about a pattern that can deliver that going forward into late Jan and Feb....i would say we would have a pretty good shot at something before the winter is out...We are always just one run away from fatalism or optimism....aren't we? 

[tnweathernut]

12Z Euro is sure to "release the hounds"...Sooey, polar piggy! 

Was just thinking about this.  Funny how we went from there isn't cold anywhere to the 12z suite showing us it found some.

[JayCee]

Was just thinking about this.  Funny how we went from there isn't cold anywhere to the 12z suite showing us it found some.

Ask and ye shall receive.   

 

Perhaps we just need a lil good ole fashioned patience--myself included.  After all, like I said before, I consider last year a good winter (for East Tennessee anyway).  But most of it occurred in a two week span in late February.  Who knows what's in store this go-around. The current situation seems primed for some good times. 

[Carvers Gap]

Well if this holds up on subsequent runs guess I will be deleting my morning posts!

Heck no. I was thinking the same thing about the cold air. You and Jeff are money on this board. Been rebuilding a light fixture today. Glad to see some cold wx modeled. Hope it verifies. Be around later this evening to talk wx.

[Carvers Gap]

Extreme blocking drove the December pattern, just in unfavorable areas for us to see cold or snow. 

 

The models are still all over the place but -10s to -20s over Southern Canada and the upper Midwest should easily be able to be tapped for snow here I'd think. 2009-10 was cold but it was never frigid here. I'll have to look, but I don't think we got below 0 that winter. We just never got very warm from mid to late January until March.

Don't disagree w/ any of that.  Seasonal temps in January will get the job done whereas they might not in February and December.   Some patterns just want to snow no matter what.  Here in Kingsport last year, that was one of those winters.  So, sometimes it just seems the pattern is as important as the temps.  But really, I am very interested to see what happens w/ strong blocking in combination w/ a Super Nino.  A very rare chance to see a super Nino and every index in our favor.  I like our chances.  But up until 12z, those opportunities appeared limited.  Someone on the MA forum made a good comment...basically stated until that block is in place it may be tough to know the actual weather that accompanies it.   I have said it before...I like our chances.  Also, seems a lot of this is also coming together at a time when climatology favors big snows.   I am not counting my chickens until they hatch...or something like that, but I certainly think it would be a remarkable event if the EC did not see a memorable stretch of winter.   But right now, just have to wait to see if those thoughts verify.  If not, hey...I have certainly been wrong before.

[1234snow]

The past two runs of the GFS has been a little bit beefier with the mid week clipper. The 16th/17th storm is finally under 200 hours and is moving in the right direction. A couple of the earlier threats haven't panned out yet and have gotten lost in fantasy lure. Maybe this is the threat that we can track all the way to the barn.

[1234snow]

Don't disagree w/ any of that. Seasonal temps in January will get the job done whereas they might not in February and December. Some patterns just want to snow no matter what. Here in Kingsport last year, that was one of those winters. So, sometimes it just seems the pattern is as important as the temps. But really, I am very interested to see what happens w/ strong blocking in combination w/ a Super Nino. A very rare chance to see a super Nino and every index in our favor. I like our chances. But up until 12z, those opportunities appeared limited. Someone on the MA forum made a good comment...basically stated until that block is in place it may be tough to know the actual weather that accompanies it. I have said it before...I like our chances. Also, seems a lot of this is also coming together at a time when climatology favors big snows. I am not counting my chickens until they hatch...or something like that, but I certainly think it would be a remarkable event if the EC did not see a memorable stretch of winter. But right now, just have to wait to see if those thoughts verify. If not, hey...I have certainly been wrong before.

This is really why I was rooting for a super El Niño this winter. I knew we would struggle and have a very warm December and most likely a warm January. But I figured if we would get the indices in our favor (-NAO,-AO,-EPO,+PNA) we would be in uncharted territory. I feel like our chances for a "Big Dog" are greatly increased with a stronger El Niño. Most of the time we get nickel and dimed more with La Niñas. The big catch with El Niños is that the big storms come with big time warm air advection which is a killer. 2009-10 is the pinnacle for El Niño with a negative NAO/AO. Maybe we can have a few week stretch where we have a 09/10 pattern.

[jaxjagman]

Here is the BSR off Joe Renkens blog for tomorrow,they drew this up a couple weeks ago,pretty close.The bottom is the 16th give a day or two

[nrgjeff]

Weekly models, both European and American CFS, turned markedly colder. Euro was mentioned two pages back, but it is worth pointing out the CFS finally came into agreement through week 3. Previously the CFS warmed up after week 2; and, it has been performing better this winter. Now both weekly model suites show cold week 1-2 and lingering into week 3 for the South.

 

Short to Mid-range models also turned colder the last 24 hours. The 11-15 suite, ops and ensembles, are colder which bridges the gap into those weekly forecasts. We are still dealing with lack of truly brutal cold in the Arctic. I joke about Anchorage lows, but the real problem is the Northwest Territories. See if some 500 mb ridging can drive surface ridging up there and create some 1050 surface highs itching to dive bomb the mid-latitudes...

 

Now we just need some systems. Marginal Risk of severe Saturday, War Eagle! You all know I can't resist a severe blurb, lol!

 

OK about winter precip. I do not see anything big yet. Tue/Wed front from Ohio Valley clipper should bring snow showers to the Plateau, Mountains and Virginia. Weekend of Jan 16 is a double barrel dance that could be anywhere from a debacle to a miracle. Too early to track anything, but if you believe the 10-20 day and weeklies more chances may present themselves.

 

Finally I would not worry too much about the southern stream being too buried. Sure on some days it is in the middle of the open Gulf, but other days models show systems cutting north. Just have to hope/wait for one in the sweet spot. As Bob noted we are having trouble with cold air at the same time as precip. The issue is less about a buried southern stream, and more about keeping it cold enough for snow. That said, the door is open in the colder pattern.

[jaxjagman]

Weekly models, both European and American CFS, turned markedly colder. Euro was mentioned two pages back, but it is worth pointing out the CFS finally came into agreement through week 3. Previously the CFS warmed up after week 2; and, it has been performing better this winter. Now both weekly model suites show cold week 1-2 and lingering into week 3 for the South.

 

Short to Mid-range models also turned colder the last 24 hours. The 11-15 suite, ops and ensembles, are colder which bridges the gap into those weekly forecasts. We are still dealing with lack of truly brutal cold in the Arctic. I joke about Anchorage lows, but the real problem is the Northwest Territories. See if some 500 mb ridging can drive surface ridging up there and create some 1050 surface highs itching to dive bomb the mid-latitudes...

 

Now we just need some systems. Marginal Risk of severe Saturday, War Eagle! You all know I can't resist a severe blurb, lol!

 

OK about winter precip. I do not see anything big yet. Tue/Wed front from Ohio Valley clipper should bring snow showers to the Plateau, Mountains and Virginia. Weekend of Jan 16 is a double barrel dance that could be anywhere from a debacle to a miracle. Too early to track anything, but if you believe the 10-20 day and weeklies more chances may present themselves.

 

Finally I would not worry too much about the southern stream being too buried. Sure on some days it is in the middle of the open Gulf, but other days models show systems cutting north. Just have to hope/wait for one in the sweet spot. As Bob noted we are having trouble with cold air at the same time as precip. The issue is less about a buried southern stream, and more about keeping it cold enough for snow. That said, the door is open in the colder pattern.

You think the cold is over done by the euro?I liked the pattern we are in.Like we know extreme cold does nothing but send dry air in our parts

[jaxjagman]

By cold i mean the euro is bringing wind chills to almost -10 by the plat..brrrr.Almost 0 in our parts

[jaxjagman]

None the less what the euro showed when i ran my text off the 12z the following Monday we won't get over 20F for the high in parts of the mid Valley,even colder to the east

[Carvers Gap]

None the less what the euro showed when i ran my text off the 12z the following Monday we won't get over 20F for the high in parts of the mid Valley,even colder to the east

Yeah, looked good. I want to see a few more runs before jumping-in. For sure, I certainly want to see cold, wintery wx. We have been talking about this time frame forever it seems. Nice to see it on the models. Would be even better to see those ideas verify in reality. Euro has been bouncing everywhere, but the12z was a heckuva run for cold. I want to see further suites support it.

[jaxjagman]

Yeah, looked good. I want to see a few more runs before jumping-in. For sure, I certainly want to see cold, wintery wx. We have been talking about this time frame forever it seems. Nice to see it on the models. Would be even better to see those ideas verify in reality. Euro has been bouncing everywhere, but the12z was a heckuva run for cold. I want to see further suites support it.

Yeah,what caught my eye was the GEFS showing 18 for the low off tidbits,this model is usually warm biased

[John1122]

The Euro was just amazing. It vastly under performed it's precip shield and had the moisture south of us, but I'll take a 999 mb low near Panama City with cold air in place every single time.

 

Has another huge snow event on the heels of the first one, once again a northern GOM low with a much smaller precip shield than would actually be the case with the track it shows. 

 

If that run came to pass I believe most of the valley would be under 6-16 inches of snow.

[1234snow]

The Euro was just amazing. It vastly under performed it's precip shield and had the moisture south of us, but I'll take a 999 mb low near Panama City with cold air in place every single time.

Has another huge snow event on the heels of the first one, once again a northern GOM low with a much smaller precip shield than would actually be the case with the track it shows.

If that run came to pass I believe most of the valley would be under 6-16 inches of snow.

This run was just incredible. Not many words can describe it. Easily the fantasy run of the season. The first storm on the Euro around hour 150 isn't even being picked up by the GFS. There is a big difference by both models at 500mb. The GFS barely sees the first wave but it is weak and most of the moisture is suppressed into the Gulf. The Euro is much more amplified with the wave causing a bigger storm.

Then right on the heels of the 1st one is an even bigger one that gives the Deep South a monster snow.

My excitement meter is rising so I will post the Euro clown. It is too good not to.

[John1122]

It's very much a run to hopefully build upon. That would be near record level snows for Atlanta if it came to pass. 

 

Not sure why the first storm, which is pretty strong and in a reasonable position can only get flakes to Chattanooga and not many there. 

 

Right now I just hope those players stay on the field.

[1234snow]

It's very much a run to hopefully build upon. That would be near record level snows for Atlanta if it came to pass.

Not sure why the first storm, which is pretty strong and in a reasonable position can only get flakes to Chattanooga and not many there.

Right now I just hope those players stay on the field.

The Euro Ensembles are not very supportive of the operational run. Only like 3 or 4 members out of 51 have accumulating snowfall >2 inches. The mean snowfall was virtually zero.

[jaxjagman]

B'ham shuts down with a one incher,can you imagine that   

[tnweathernut]

I wa pumped to see the PBP and then the maps from the 0z Euro, then bummed to see the ensembles...lol

It does show potential though and I have thought for several days we'd start seeing pretty clown maps more often. There are SO many impulses and interactions to try to work through that it may not be possible to accurately predict much of anything (except generalities) beyond a few days.

The truth is, we may have already seen a solution for next weekend that is close to reality sometime in the last two days. The perplexing news is........which one??

[jaxjagman]

I wa pumped to see the PBP and then the maps from the 0z Euro, then bummed to see the ensembles...lol

It does show potential though and I have thought for several days we'd start seeing pretty clown maps more often. There are SO many impulses and interactions to try to work through that it may not be possible to accurately predict much of anything (except generalities) beyond a few days.

The truth is, we may have already seen a solution for next weekend that is close to reality sometime in the last two days. The perplexing news is........which one??

Dunno,but you just got to have that feeling someone in the Valley is going to cash in,in the Valley.I like where we are in the battle zone,on the northern edge,usually we are on the southern part and time after time we just miss systems and watch them go north of us.Will we get anything?Who knows but if i were a betting man i'd go for you guys in the east

[Chattownsnow]

The Euro Ensembles are not very supportive of the operational run. Only like 3 or 4 members out of 51 have accumulating snowfall >2 inches. The mean snowfall was virtually zero.

Yeah I saw that as well. The ensemble run does have a low present in the northern gulf on 16/51 of the individuals. Which isn't great support for being 6 days out. However, the mean snowfall is at least 2> for most of the state of Tennessee by the end of the run. So the potential is still there for something during this period.