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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

With the PNA forecast to go positive, and the AO and NAO predicted to at least relax some, you'd think more cold would be showing up on the models. Maybe they are just as wrong about the flooding warmth as they are when they forecast cold. It's odd that the ensembles show the positive PNA but the OP just has storm after storm heading into the PACNW right through what should be a nice ridge.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Looked at the CFS for today. It backs off a little for January in terms of warmth. Sometimes, any backing off by the CFS hints at a cold(ish)pattern for that time period. IMO, it has feedback problems in that it cannot sense a pattern change. So the slightest hint of backing off is a better sign for cold in January. December just appears to have very little cold in North America for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Even WxSouth mentioned how very little cold is in the pattern for December. He does like the SE cold anomalies under very warm anomalies for most of Canada during January and February with "just enough" cold for winter weather.....I hate being right when it comes to warm winters. But I think this winter keeps showing warm signal after warm signal beginning with a strong El Nino that is not west based and a cold Greenland. It is not all bad...Most Ninos can payoff in late winter though certainly not a given. The recent strong ones have not. But lots of energy in the atmosphere. Might be worth watching the ENSO during December. If it crashes...we might be able to squeeze out some late season magic. If it doesn't, enjoy the nice temps. I promised myself after the strong Ninos of the 90s to never again hope for cold winters during strong Ninos . This winter might come down to a couple of windows where it gets cold enough for some snow. With the Nino juicing the atmosphere, anything is possible. Like a homerun hitter...most of the time he strikes out. But sometimes he hits it over. But they guy isn't hitting singles. This winter I just don't envision several small events. I see us getting one or two big opportunities even into mid March. Mid-January to mid-March seems like the time when Nino climo and local climo best mesh. I do think the mountains may get pounded in late winter. Normally, I lean cold in my assessments FWIW. I continue to hold with slighlty above normal temps for DJF for the eastern Valley(I just don't know the climo in mid or west) and below normal snow. I am tempted to go with " very below" but Nino winters can hold some surprises. Nino snows can be big. Could be a winter where some are +.5 to +1.5 and go above snow climo with one storm. Some could get blanked. I think the further north in the Valley that you are...there you will find the larger departures in terms of warm temps. Some in northern Alabama may be closer to normal where TRI could be +1.5.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

With the PNA forecast to go positive, and the AO and NAO predicted to at least relax some, you'd think more cold would be showing up on the models. Maybe they are just as wrong about the flooding warmth as they are when they forecast cold. It's odd that the ensembles show the positive PNA but the OP just has storm after storm heading into the PACNW right through what should be a nice ridge.

The AO needs to go negative IMO...would signal some cold in NA somewhere. Still, it is not quite winter yet and far from the heart of winter. The same set-up may yield colder results in six weeks. IMO, you sit in the best spot for at least some chances for frozen precip this winter.

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

What Carvers said..

 

The real polar vortex, not the media invented crap, is strong and tight right now. Cold is bottled up in the arctic so tight that even Canada is mild. However Siberia 500 mb heights and surface press are both running well above normal. Theory goes that later in winter it is a set-up for an attack on the polar vortex. If so, the polar vortex could break up or at least wobble - the road to a -AO. The next challenge is where does the cold go? East Asia, Europe, North America or a combo of 2 or 3? Strong Nino forcing does not favor North America.

 

However anything can happen if threading the needle right. Love the power hitting metaphor. I always liked small ball, and clippers back in the Plains. Southwest lows are so strike-out dryslot prone. Tough to get a clipper into the Valley. However they are gems in the mountains, esp if dry snow. In spite of my warm forecast, I'm so ready to ski!

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rbowman

rbowman

Posted
Posted

What Carvers said..

The real polar vortex, not the media invented crap, is strong and tight right now. Cold is bottled up in the arctic so tight that even Canada is mild. However Siberia 500 mb heights and surface press are both running well above normal. Theory goes that later in winter it is a set-up for an attack on the polar vortex. If so, the polar vortex could break up or at least wobble - the road to a -AO. The next challenge is where does the cold go? East Asia, Europe, North America or a combo of 2 or 3? Strong Nino forcing does not favor North America.

However anything can happen if threading the needle right. Love the power hitting metaphor. I always liked small ball, and clippers back in the Plains. Southwest lows are so strike-out dryslot prone. Tough to get a clipper into the Valley. However they are gems in the mountains, esp if dry snow. In spite of my warm forecast, I'm so ready to ski!

Spot on. That vortex has got to weaken to allow cold air to move out.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I always believe in science and life that it is important to look at both sides of the coin. In the IDF, if all parties agree...one person is required to switch to the opposing viewpoint. John1122 has mentioned these ideas often...DT's forecast. Excellent write-up.

https://powerpoint.officeapps.live.com/p/mPPT.aspx?PowerPointView=ReadingView&Fi=SD1CA2F9A16D1A6375!280&H=emul&C=5_810_BAY-SKY-WAC-WSHI&ui=en-US&rs=en-US&wdo=2&wde=pptx&wdp=7&su=2063486051004605301&ad=en-US&sc=host%3d&cy=canary&ak=t%3D0%26s%3D0%26v%3D%21AOSv7HIr2qlPss8%26aid%3Ddd443ee2%2Dafcf%2D4ba1%2Dad24%2Dba68ba9dd2c5%26m%3Den%2Dus&wdMobileHost=2

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Can't argue with the IDF! Over there stakes are huge. If the IDF messes up, they lose their country - and millions of lives.

 

European weeklies pushed back the cool week; they can't seem to move it forward from week 4. However the CFS maintains the Christmas week cool-down. CFS went cooler after yesterday's warm flip-flop. Either way I would expect a cold front into our region after the 7-10 day blowtorch. Cold should be brief like right now.

 

Always looking for what could go wrong, the following favor cold late winter change: Siberian high is strong. Summer AO was negative; while not now, it could surge back. Even so, we don't know where cold would go. Warmth is still favored by very cold temps in Alaska and Greenland. Atlantic SSTs are warm off the coast and cold up near Greenland. El Nino is driving SOI very negative. The warm forcing is incredible - and focused on North America. Looks generally warm through at least mid-January perhaps late January. Hard to call February yet; but, each much warmer than normal week drives the arithmetic toward a warmer than normal winter overall.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Change is coming.  The SOI is currently TANKING after the recent spike.  Biggest question in my mind is whether the coming change is transient or something that will be more prolonged.  I can see ways BOTH scenerios could play out.

 

SOI values for 04 Dec 2015

 

Average for last 30 days-6.67

Average for last 90 days-15.21

Daily contribution to SOI calculation-29.43

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

post-3027-0-76273800-1449293257_thumb.pn

 

I'll wait until it gets boring for us In Mid Tn before i start a Nina thread.I don't have a great feeling for us in Mid Tn this winter.This pattern we're in seems to fit Nino for us in Mid to the western parts of the Valley.I think we could end up being above avg rain and clouds  should/could possibly keep us below temp anoms for Dec,just my gut feelings anyways.Jan should be a big dud for us as soon as the S/jet does it's work(hope i'm wrong).Maybe Feb is a wild card?To far out to tell for us in our parts.

 

Also KW is on going,1.2 is warming 

 

post-3027-0-91312200-1449297055_thumb.pnpost-3027-0-24917900-1449297075_thumb.pn

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Tom Petty also sings my song about my mild winter. I Won't Back Down. Almost the entire Northern Hemisphere SSTs are above normal. Heat flux is intense and relentless. Euro weeklies and monthlies have consistently underforecast the forcing. January is going to come in warmer than the Euro forecast. February is a wild card, and I hope we score, but I'm mentally preparing for a Texas winter in Tenn.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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Posted

I think we stand a decent chance to find temperatures cool/cold enough to get everyone in the Christmas spirit in the days before Christmas.  It's likely transient and there may be more than one shot between the 17th and 27th, but it's better than nothing.  Those hanging on to the hopes of the CFSv2 snow maps and the chance at snow with this transient cold shot are likely going to be disappointed.  But.........it's the southeast and snow, disappointment is generally the rule anyway.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how this winter evolves (or IF it evloves).  Most guidance shows the El Nino falling off a cliff, hence the cold mid and late winter forecasts.   I am not liking the tightly wound and stable strat look, but it's still the first 10 days of December.  I have seen winter turn on a dime many times and I think this winter will be no exception.  I just don't know if it turns in January, February, or when it's mostly too late (in March).  Going to be a fun ride even if it stays mostly warm (golfing year round is pretty fun).

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

Tom Petty also sings my song about my mild winter. I Won't Back Down. Almost the entire Northern Hemisphere SSTs are above normal. Heat flux is intense and relentless. Euro weeklies and monthlies have consistently underforecast the forcing. January is going to come in warmer than the Euro forecast. February is a wild card, and I hope we score, but I'm mentally preparing for a Texas winter in Tenn.

 

You got lucky but yer so bad with your outlook, don't do me like that.  The weenies are going to have a breakdown and go free falling off a cliff.  I need to know if the long range guidance is showing something in the air or if the wildflowers are going to start blooming in January.  It'll all work out I guess because even the losers get snow sometimes.

 

:guitar:

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

You got lucky but yer so bad with your outlook, don't do me like that.  The weenies are going to have a breakdown and go free falling off a cliff.  I need to know if the long range guidance is showing something in the air or if the wildflowers are going to start blooming in January.  It'll all work out I guess because even the losers get snow sometimes.

 

:guitar:

Long range guidance says transitory cool/cold shot (possible flurries at some point........mountains, but not likely anywhere else imo) followed by another stretch of warm weather before we can see if this pattern heads somewhere more useful for those that like winter (me included).  Hope I am wrong, but pattern persistence FTL is the way it appears at this point.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Amazingly, we're running behind last December in terms of warmth so far. It featured 20 days of above normal temps, 11 of them were at least 8 degrees above normal and several of those were 15-16 degrees above normal.

 

It's been a while since we've managed a cold December.

 

I expect there will be a few cool shots and probably 5-8 total days below normal the rest of the month. Which would put us around where we were in December 2014.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Looked at the CFS for today. It backs off a little for January in terms of warmth. Sometimes, any backing off by the CFS hints at a cold(ish)pattern for that time period. IMO, it has feedback problems in that it cannot sense a pattern change. So the slightest hint of backing off is a better sign for cold in January. December just appears to have very little cold in North America for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Even WxSouth mentioned how very little cold is in the pattern for December. He does like the SE cold anomalies under very warm anomalies for most of Canada during January and February with "just enough" cold for winter weather.....I hate being right when it comes to warm winters. But I think this winter keeps showing warm signal after warm signal beginning with a strong El Nino that is not west based and a cold Greenland. It is not all bad...Most Ninos can payoff in late winter though certainly not a given. The recent strong ones have not. But lots of energy in the atmosphere. Might be worth watching the ENSO during December. If it crashes...we might be able to squeeze out some late season magic. If it doesn't, enjoy the nice temps. I promised myself after the strong Ninos of the 90s to never again hope for cold winters during strong Ninos . This winter might come down to a couple of windows where it gets cold enough for some snow. With the Nino juicing the atmosphere, anything is possible. Like a homerun hitter...most of the time he strikes out. But sometimes he hits it over. But they guy isn't hitting singles. This winter I just don't envision several small events. I see us getting one or two big opportunities even into mid March. Mid-January to mid-March seems like the time when Nino climo and local climo best mesh. I do think the mountains may get pounded in late winter. Normally, I lean cold in my assessments FWIW. I continue to hold with slighlty above normal temps for DJF for the eastern Valley(I just don't know the climo in mid or west) and below normal snow. I am tempted to go with " very below" but Nino winters can hold some surprises. Nino snows can be big. Could be a winter where some are +.5 to +1.5 and go above snow climo with one storm. Some could get blanked. I think the further north in the Valley that you are...there you will find the larger departures in terms of warm temps. Some in northern Alabama may be closer to normal where TRI could be +1.5.

Jon, in the SE thread, posted a great comparison of the CFS2 for January. Has begun to gradually weaken some of the January warmth that was portrayed the mid-section of the NA. Go over and take a look at it. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago...it is important to see when and where the model backs off. It can barely see a flip coming, but it provided hints last winter. It is like an eighteen wheeler on a hairpin turn. Can't make the turn, but tries to...

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

I have read some thoughts about this pattern behaving more like a La Nina with this big ridge in eastern NA. Now personally, this reminds me of 97-98. I sort of dimiss the La Nina comparisons, because this December fits recent strong Nino climo. That said...Today @ TRI we broke a record from 1984, a La Nina year that followed a very strong Nino from a couple of years earlier. Anyone want to roll that forward to January 1985? Set the all time record low at -21. I am not saying that will happen or even close. But to goes to show that weather in the Valley can flip on a dime. Interestingly, 1984 still holds another record high in late December. I don't remember the record heat from that December. But I do remember sitting under my house with my dad while we tried to thaw the pipes. One pipe was cracked. We fixed it. I always remember that winter as the benchmark for just how cold it can get. Last winter was almost in that category with -12. Maybe it should be. But anyway, be wary of warmth in December. Could be the first step to a non-winter or the precursor to a flip.

Edit to add Bristol area temp data...

Dec 1984 +7.7

January 1985 -7.6

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

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I see posts in other forums speaking to the demise of the steroidal PV. I just don't see it. I have seen a couple of obvious false starts, but most data/modeling shows a tight PV heading into the last part of December. I hope we start seeing some meaningful changes there in the coming week or so...

I have only seen it out of that one persistent poster in the SE Forum....It is going to take a while to really break that sucker down and then does that even mean we get the cold....it is a weird year for sure. Analogs are not always the right way to go and never yield the exact same results. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

Just looking for a glimmer...the teleconnections show a sharp drop of the NAO to neutral in early January. AO ventures there as well. The PNA is neutral by then as well. Looks like a more zonal weather pattern on the way if just going by today's CPC ensembles only. Better than a big ridge. Not yet to a snowy pattern. The CFS2 continues to back off the heat for January. Again something to watch. Like Mr. Bob says...a few days of seasonal cold and then more warm. Personally, I think things shake-up just before mid-January. Of course the pattern could remain stable all winter, but that rarely happens.

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