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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Is it not going according to plan? I don't understand.

I'm not a seasonal guy. I really don't care about the second half of winter until the second half.

So far everything showing up is quite underwhelming. I don't like punting entire months during winter. Regardless of expectations and plans.

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I don't like it either. I'm not quite willing to say we won't have one chance this month yet, but we'll see. AO, NAO, and EPO don't look as horrid toward the last 1/3 of the month, but there is plenty of time for that to trend in the wrong direction. 

I think its getting close to punt time- 4th and long for the month of December. Therefore, consideration should be given to upping the despair index. ;)

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I think most people knew December would be a wash given all LR modeling with the incoming torch.

...reminder, MA does better JF and lately M. Don't jump yet people.

Agree. I have also been saying that. I mean, esp for folks in the lowlands, December is not generally a cold/snow month. I am just having fun with it. I enjoyed last December.  But like I said, if I go out to Canaan, and its snow-less there in late December, that is sayin' sumptin.

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I think most people knew December would be a wash given all LR modeling with the incoming torch.

...reminder, MA does better JF and lately M. Don't jump yet people.

x2.  

 

A voice of reason.  We all knew it, and now we just have to find the right coping mechanism(s).

 

Now back to cleaning the lawn mower that I had to use yesterday :bag: 

 

Nut

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Once again, GFS in its la la stage is advertising a pretty nice cold shot (-21c 850s) coming into the Northern Plains by 336-348... and what looks to me as a serviceable h5 map at 384... not the best, but it might do just enough

 

Well, what is more interesting is the Greenland ridging popping up @ Day 9-10, that is BRAND new to the modeling, let's hope it sticks because it would be HUGE for us. 

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6Z seems to continue some positive vibes for 300 and beyond. I know way out there, op GFS, and probably won't hold but I have set my sights on at least seasonal for Xmas eve and day so anything else would be gravy.

For those that follow the CFS2, the weeklies off of Tropical Tidbits are fairly encouraging for the last week in December, and not that bad the week before vs. the next week or so. In fact, I'm getting the feeling that the next 10 days may be the most anomalous for some time to come....pending the new Euro monthlies that come out on Wednesday. Lol
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its nice to see some positive vibes.  might get crushed at 12Z and I haven't even looked at ensembles...I was scared to actually.  if we could just get a bit of ridging and move that western trough east.  Also I noticed some real winter air in western Canada toward end of run which has been absent for a while with the Pac flow.  again baby steps. 

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