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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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      This is correct.   It's worth noting, though, that while the GEFS in effect perturbs the initial state being used by the operational GFS, the actual model is one version behind the operational GFS.     So, in that regard, it's not a pure ensemble, as one would certainly be better off having the ensemble members using the same model as the operational GFS uses.

 

 

Yes, all gefs output is now the upgraded. The old gefs is no longer being run as far as I know. 

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      This is correct.   It's worth noting, though, that while the GEFS in effect perturbs the initial state being used by the operational GFS, the actual model is one version behind the operational GFS.     So, in that regard, it's not a pure ensemble, as one would certainly be better off having the ensemble members using the same model as the operational GFS uses.

Actually, it is probably as close to the deterministic GFS as it has ever been...they are now both (finally!!!!!!) using the same dynamic core, similar physics, and have the same vertical layer specification.  Before they, they were effectively different models, beyond the differences expected from the resolution difference alone.

 

Of course, this gets complicated yet again when they do the next GFS/GDAS implementation and change the land surface, but I digress....

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Just saw them. Ugly

 

If we manage to make it through Dec with no notable coastals would be pretty weird. I think there's a non-zero chance this pattern will survive most of the winter if it keeps up. 

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   yeah, sorry, I got it messed up in mind with all of the preparation for the next GFS upgrade which is still a few months away.   The GEFS is now caught up to the GFS in terms of version, but some ugly biases (very warm, dry over the midwest and southeast) that were introduced in the last GFS upgrade have now been introduced in the GEFS (admittedly along with some major improvements).  And when the next GFS upgrade tries to address them later this spring, the GEFS will go back to being a version behind again.

 

 

Actually, it is probably as close to the deterministic GFS as it has ever been...they are now both (finally!!!!!!) using the same dynamic core, similar physics, and have the same vertical layer specification.  Before they, they were effectively different models, beyond the differences expected from the resolution difference alone.

 

Of course, this gets complicated yet again when they do the next GFS/GDAS implementation and change the land surface, but I digress....

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New Euro monthlies come out on the 8th. I think we'll have a better idea whether or not DT's ideas will prevail over the current pattern holding as the mean pattern through the season.

Well to be clear I don't expect the pattern to stay exactly as it is now in Jan and Feb but the proclivity for the ridge to keep rebuilding in the same area (which for one is messing up the axis for any southern stream storms). At some point a true southern stream firehose across the southern US should take over vs the more amplified and varied stuff we've seen lately... I'd think at least.

 

It would be kind of dumb to think we're for sure not going to get more classic looks after Dec. I'd actually put that at a very low chance (hence non zero!).

 

We seem to be in a period globally last several years where patterns are unusually persistent as well which is worth considering. 

 

I have limited to no skill outside a month. But it's not hard to visualize chopping into Jan at this point of course. Which I know you aren't worried about. :P

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Well to be clear I don't expect the pattern to stay exactly as it is now in Jan and Feb but the proclivity for the ridge to keep rebuilding in the same area (which for one is messing up the axis for any southern stream storms). At some point a true southern stream firehose across the southern US should take over vs the more amplified and varied stuff we've seen lately... I'd think at least.

It would be kind of dumb to think we're for sure not going to get more classic looks after Dec. I'd actually put that at a very low chance (hence non zero!).

We seem to be in a period globally last several years where patterns are unusually persistent as well which is worth considering.

I have limited to no skill outside a month. But it's not hard to visualize chopping into Jan at this point of course. Which I know you aren't worried about. :P

Well, my ideas could easily fall apart, so although I believe we'll morph into an 82/83-type nino winter, I won't be shocked if I fail. What's particularly cool/exciting about this winter imo is the potential for explosive storms. Plus, we could easily see back to back big storms ala 86/87 or 09/10 if things fall into place, or fail miserably ala 91/91 or 97/98. Like DT says, it's the suspense. Meanwhile, we sweat out December.
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I'm hugging the 12z Gefs until the euro ens come out and destroy hope.

thats a pretty good look(well at least a step up lol). The pattern has been seeing the OP Gfs with some good runs and then the ensembles crap it on it so its good to see the ensembles for this run look better than the OP

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Definitely better.. tho may just open the door to the warm raging pac jet. Doesn't look particularly cold.

 

It's a return to normal temps verbatim but take a look at mean temps in the western half of Canada. Amazing what just a little ridging can do to shut off the pac clearinghouse of cold air in our source region. There's actually cold to tap at least. 

 

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_61.png

 

 

ETA: GEFS is obviously on it's own but at least the run looked good. Probably rushing anything meaningful but if we start to see a trend with even modest ridging in the epo region we are moving towards a better setup. 

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Hadn't looked at temp anomalies but yes they certainly look better. That source region has been flooded with warmer air plus downsloping for a while now. Could see the latter eating snow again last day or so. But warm in Canada isn't that warm of course. I have been watching snowcover a bit. As long as we have that and a little PNA ridge builds in it should be coldish at least.

 

I'm just nervous we'll mostly open the floodgates of the flaming oceans on a rocket jet and enjoy our 35 and rain. Plus I wonder if the mean is just washing stuff down way at range. Guess I could try to find members if I cared that much.. perhaps if the Euro joins. ;)

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Yea, figured as much. They did hone in on the d10-12 cool shot at least. That's a new feature and all we got for now.

Ensembles were terrible... does look like we will have to wait for Janauary for any real pattern change to stick around... we will likely get a few transient cold shots, but I don't really see anything that grabs my interest for the next 15 days on the EPS

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Ensembles were terrible... does look like we will have to wait for Janauary for any real pattern change to stick around... we will likely get a few transient cold shots, but I don't really see anything that grabs my interest for the next 15 days on the EPS

Exactly. The "cold" shots aren't all that cold and they are very transient. If the pattern (troposphere and stratosphere) does not change in a BIG way come January, we are in serious trouble IMO
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