Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Quite shockingly the 12z GFS looks nothing like the 6z GFS at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Quite shockingly the 12z GFS looks nothing like the 6z GFS at range. I still think its trending better in the long run each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I still think its trending better in the long run each time. Baby steps. By next winter the pattern will reload enough for TV Snow. Seriously though, it's nice to see the freezing line at 850 flirting with the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 GEFS was pretty terrible. Will we not get any coastals this nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 This is correct. It's worth noting, though, that while the GEFS in effect perturbs the initial state being used by the operational GFS, the actual model is one version behind the operational GFS. So, in that regard, it's not a pure ensemble, as one would certainly be better off having the ensemble members using the same model as the operational GFS uses. Yes, all gefs output is now the upgraded. The old gefs is no longer being run as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 This is correct. It's worth noting, though, that while the GEFS in effect perturbs the initial state being used by the operational GFS, the actual model is one version behind the operational GFS. So, in that regard, it's not a pure ensemble, as one would certainly be better off having the ensemble members using the same model as the operational GFS uses. Actually, it is probably as close to the deterministic GFS as it has ever been...they are now both (finally!!!!!!) using the same dynamic core, similar physics, and have the same vertical layer specification. Before they, they were effectively different models, beyond the differences expected from the resolution difference alone. Of course, this gets complicated yet again when they do the next GFS/GDAS implementation and change the land surface, but I digress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 12z Euro ens calls for readying the cliff jumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 12z Euro ens calls for readying the cliff jumpsJust saw them. Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Just saw them. Ugly If we manage to make it through Dec with no notable coastals would be pretty weird. I think there's a non-zero chance this pattern will survive most of the winter if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 yeah, sorry, I got it messed up in mind with all of the preparation for the next GFS upgrade which is still a few months away. The GEFS is now caught up to the GFS in terms of version, but some ugly biases (very warm, dry over the midwest and southeast) that were introduced in the last GFS upgrade have now been introduced in the GEFS (admittedly along with some major improvements). And when the next GFS upgrade tries to address them later this spring, the GEFS will go back to being a version behind again. Actually, it is probably as close to the deterministic GFS as it has ever been...they are now both (finally!!!!!!) using the same dynamic core, similar physics, and have the same vertical layer specification. Before they, they were effectively different models, beyond the differences expected from the resolution difference alone. Of course, this gets complicated yet again when they do the next GFS/GDAS implementation and change the land surface, but I digress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 If we manage to make it through Dec with no notable coastals would be pretty weird. I think there's a non-zero chance this pattern will survive most of the winter if it keeps up.This brings back memories of 01-02 and 11-12 to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 New Euro monthlies come out on the 8th. I think we'll have a better idea whether or not DT's ideas will prevail over the current pattern holding as the mean pattern through the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 New Euro monthlies come out on the 8th. I think we'll have a better idea whether or not DT's ideas will prevail over the current pattern holding as the mean pattern through the season. Well to be clear I don't expect the pattern to stay exactly as it is now in Jan and Feb but the proclivity for the ridge to keep rebuilding in the same area (which for one is messing up the axis for any southern stream storms). At some point a true southern stream firehose across the southern US should take over vs the more amplified and varied stuff we've seen lately... I'd think at least. It would be kind of dumb to think we're for sure not going to get more classic looks after Dec. I'd actually put that at a very low chance (hence non zero!). We seem to be in a period globally last several years where patterns are unusually persistent as well which is worth considering. I have limited to no skill outside a month. But it's not hard to visualize chopping into Jan at this point of course. Which I know you aren't worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Well to be clear I don't expect the pattern to stay exactly as it is now in Jan and Feb but the proclivity for the ridge to keep rebuilding in the same area (which for one is messing up the axis for any southern stream storms). At some point a true southern stream firehose across the southern US should take over vs the more amplified and varied stuff we've seen lately... I'd think at least. It would be kind of dumb to think we're for sure not going to get more classic looks after Dec. I'd actually put that at a very low chance (hence non zero!). We seem to be in a period globally last several years where patterns are unusually persistent as well which is worth considering. I have limited to no skill outside a month. But it's not hard to visualize chopping into Jan at this point of course. Which I know you aren't worried about. Well, my ideas could easily fall apart, so although I believe we'll morph into an 82/83-type nino winter, I won't be shocked if I fail. What's particularly cool/exciting about this winter imo is the potential for explosive storms. Plus, we could easily see back to back big storms ala 86/87 or 09/10 if things fall into place, or fail miserably ala 91/91 or 97/98. Like DT says, it's the suspense. Meanwhile, we sweat out December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 00z GFS, while verbatim a long dry spell for us followed by a couple of rainers that whiten northern New York and Maine, actually seems to be a significant step forward in terms of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Good thing 5+ day model forecasts are meaningless or I might be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 The light? End of tunnel? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We dream for a positive pdo...and this is what we get? A permanent trough in the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We dream for a positive pdo...and this is what we get? A permanent trough in the west? I'm hugging the 12z Gefs until the euro ens come out and destroy hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I'm hugging the 12z Gefs until the euro ens come out and destroy hope. thats a pretty good look(well at least a step up lol). The pattern has been seeing the OP Gfs with some good runs and then the ensembles crap it on it so its good to see the ensembles for this run look better than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Definitely better.. tho may just open the door to the warm raging pac jet. Doesn't look particularly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Definitely better.. tho may just open the door to the warm raging pac jet. Doesn't look particularly cold. It's a return to normal temps verbatim but take a look at mean temps in the western half of Canada. Amazing what just a little ridging can do to shut off the pac clearinghouse of cold air in our source region. There's actually cold to tap at least. ETA: GEFS is obviously on it's own but at least the run looked good. Probably rushing anything meaningful but if we start to see a trend with even modest ridging in the epo region we are moving towards a better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Hadn't looked at temp anomalies but yes they certainly look better. That source region has been flooded with warmer air plus downsloping for a while now. Could see the latter eating snow again last day or so. But warm in Canada isn't that warm of course. I have been watching snowcover a bit. As long as we have that and a little PNA ridge builds in it should be coldish at least. I'm just nervous we'll mostly open the floodgates of the flaming oceans on a rocket jet and enjoy our 35 and rain. Plus I wonder if the mean is just washing stuff down way at range. Guess I could try to find members if I cared that much.. perhaps if the Euro joins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Ian, Gefs members favor a cold shot d10-15. That's about all I gleaned. There's a fantasy storm in the mix but overall looks like nothing more than a typical Dec trough dropping in for a visit. Euro op definitely looked nothing like the d10 ens mean. H5 looked fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 No love from euro ensembles. Does have a cool shot before rebuilding bad pattern late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 No love from euro ensembles. Does have a cool shot before rebuilding bad pattern late. Yea, figured as much. They did hone in on the d10-12 cool shot at least. That's a new feature and all we got for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Yea, figured as much. They did hone in on the d10-12 cool shot at least. That's a new feature and all we got for now. Ensembles were terrible... does look like we will have to wait for Janauary for any real pattern change to stick around... we will likely get a few transient cold shots, but I don't really see anything that grabs my interest for the next 15 days on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Darn you 18z GFS lala land... coastal lows and no cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Ensembles were terrible... does look like we will have to wait for Janauary for any real pattern change to stick around... we will likely get a few transient cold shots, but I don't really see anything that grabs my interest for the next 15 days on the EPSExactly. The "cold" shots aren't all that cold and they are very transient. If the pattern (troposphere and stratosphere) does not change in a BIG way come January, we are in serious trouble IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 We dream for a positive pdo...and this is what we get? A permanent trough in the west? Hold my hand as we walk through the long, long valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.