Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 We need more optimism. Euro weekly mean snow is 1-4" through the area and control run spits out 4-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Remember the good days - it makes up for the bad days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 We need more optimism. Euro weekly mean snow is 1-4" through the area and control run spits out 4-10".The "slow" start of winter was advertised on every seasonal model, even the ones that show an improvement post 1/15/16. But patience is always easy to preach but hard to have. In my mind, anything that falls before 1/15/16 will be a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 The "slow" start of winter was advertised on every seasonal model, even the ones that show an improvement post 1/15/16. But patience is always easy to preach but hard to have. In my mind, anything that falls before 1/15/16 will be a gift. We will have snow before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 We will have snow before then.I don't know if we will or won't, but I do think that the wait will be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I don't know if we will or won't, but I do think that the wait will be worth it. The coldest heavy rain ever. So sweet it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 We will have snow before then. There is no "we" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 There is no "we" here. I'm calling it now. We ALL get snow before Jan 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I'm calling it now. We ALL get snow before Jan 15Probably at least snow TV. Didn't Winchester get a big snow in 97-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Probably at least snow TV. Didn't Winchester get a big snow in 97-98? Didn't live here then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The coldest heavy rain ever. So sweet it will be.Before 1/15, probably. Afterwards, it'll change...at least imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Big changes in the 00 goofus. Starting with no noreaster midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Big changes in the 00 goofus. Starting with no noreaster midweek. I knew this event was done for when the 12z Euro came in today. Time and again you see this pattern of lost storms, bizarre el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I knew this event was done for when the 12z Euro came in today. Time and again you see this pattern of lost storms, bizarre el nino. This last event was pretty nino'y but we can't seem to buy any coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Probably at least snow TV. Didn't Winchester get a big snow in 97-98? We had a big storm that turned to rain. Got 8-9 inches in Front Royal before the changeover. Ended up a wet, soggy mess. Would've rather it had not occurred at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Pretty much all I got from that. What makes you happy dude? Snow that falls, sticks, doesn't turn to rain, and doesn't melt immediately afterwards. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I like the look of the end of the 00z EURO run. What is really helping to possibly change the pattern is that large storm Day 7-8....We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Snow gets very close on the 17th with a coastal according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Gefs and EPS are starting to diverge in the d10-15 range. Euro sticking with a more prominent ridge in the east and the Gefs less hostile. Not cold or snowy look or anything. Just more seasonal temp wise. Some of thr numerical indices look to become less hostile around the 15th or so. Unanimous there. Gefs and EPS both shift the ao/nao neutral around the same time. Imo- our first cold air mass that is deep enough for even a remote chance at frozen may stop by in the 15th- 20th range. It's a major longshot but it's all we got. A little sip of lemonade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Gefs and EPS are starting to diverge in the d10-15 range. Euro sticking with a more prominent ridge in the east and the Gefs less hostile. Not cold or snowy look or anything. Just more seasonal temp wise. Some of thr numerical indices look to become less hostile around the 15th or so. Unanimous there. Gefs and EPS both shift the ao/nao neutral around the same time. Imo- our first cold air mass that is deep enough for even a remote chance at frozen may stop by in the 15th- 20th range. It's a major longshot but it's all we got. A little sip of lemonade. Yup...add a little bit of Gentleman Jack to that and we'd be in business! But yes, the longer range again looks "less hostile". It's similar to the hints we saw a few days ago that kind of disappeared earlier this week (or so it seemed), and now are there again. Not saying it's anything really exciting or huge, but intriguing. As I said before, enough to keep me looking I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 6z GFS is quite pretty. Fantasy but nice look at 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 I don't trust the GFS, especially if the storm next week fails. It was pretty bad at about 8-9 days for last weekend. If I don't trust the main model, then I have a hard time trusting its ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 6z GFS is quite pretty. Fantasy but nice look at 300. fail, accuweather is sunny in the 50s. maybe next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I don't trust the GFS, especially if the storm next week fails. It was pretty bad at about 8-9 days for last weekend. If I don't trust the main model, then I have a hard time trusting its ensemble. I kept up with the new ensembles when wxbell was running them parallel. Tracked much closer to the euro and less spread overall. Right now they are diverging though. Should be a good test. I don't think judging the gfs op by a storm beyond 5 days is fair tbh. GFS does fine at the range it's intended to be used for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I don't believe it of course and it's not even great here but still. Greenland oranges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 I kept up with the new ensembles when wxbell was running them parallel. Tracked much closer to the euro and less spread overall. Right now they are diverging though. Should be a good test. I don't think judging the gfs op by a storm beyond 5 days is fair tbh. GFS does fine at the range it's intended to be used for. Well, this has been talked up before. If there's no faith in a solution that a gfs member spits out, then, IMO, there's not much faith in its ensemble. I know that when you merge a bunch of them together you lessen the effect that errors in ind members has, but still.........8 days out isn't that far for a general idea, even for the op. Not specifics. I think for now my money would be on the Euro ens. BTW, is there a place for me to see the para ens members? I noticed that within the past few days Trop Tidbits has taken the GEFS Para out of the list of ens. Is it in use now as the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Yes, all gefs output is now the upgraded. The old gefs is no longer being run as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Yes, all gefs output is now the upgraded. The old gefs is no longer being run as far as I know. Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 I kept up with the new ensembles when wxbell was running them parallel. Tracked much closer to the euro and less spread overall. Right now they are diverging though. Should be a good test. I don't think judging the gfs op by a storm beyond 5 days is fair tbh. GFS does fine at the range it's intended to be used for. By the way, can you explain how they are diverging? I haven't had any time to look at anything this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 By the way, can you explain how they are diverging? I haven't had any time to look at anything this morning. EPS keep the lowest heights centered along the west coast (specifically off the coast of WA and OR) and the conus trough axis is further west. Basically the EPS say the cold air will really struggle to move east over d10-15 and even worse, cold air won't be able to build in NW canada either. GEFS is friendlier with the general conus trough axis being a good bit further east (centered east of the MS river) and also has a kink of higher heights in NW canada. Something you always want to see develop in the absence of blocking. The short story is the EPS say we suck ass and stay warm at the surface and mid levels d10-15 and the GEFS says we stand a good chance at seasonable air through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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