midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 EURO EPS says - HEAT stays! hideous pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Yesterday's CPC 6to10 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures for all 48 conterminous states. The 8to14 day outlook is more optimistic for winter weather ... if you live west of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 GFS has a cold rain/wet snow west on the 17th then WinterWxLuvr storm in the pipeline at 384. #itshappening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 GFS has a cold rain/wet snow west on the 17th then WinterWxLuvr storm in the pipeline at 384. #itshappening here is the latest CFSv2 for feb. I think we can do 35 inches again for the month like in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 GFS has a cold rain/wet snow west on the 17th then WinterWxLuvr storm in the pipeline at 384. #itshappening Bring it on. Nostradamus predicted this winter in 1492 while he was boat riding with ole Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 euro has a warm bias anyway...just ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 euro has a warm bias anyway...just ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 GFS has a cold rain/wet snow west on the 17th then WinterWxLuvr storm in the pipeline at 384. #itshappening Something I've been thinking about... The d10 pattern is unanimous across all guidance. Strong Dec ridge in the east and fairly amplified trough out west Pretty good setup for a strong storm popping in the middle of the country that tracks due north. We should root for this. As strong a storm as possible plowing right toward Hudson Bay. This is one way to draw down some cold air and also pull the trough east. It's a process but man, we need something other than this to look at for week on end. lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 EURO EPS says - HEAT stays! hideous pattern! It's been hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Something I've been thinking about... The d10 pattern is unanimous across all guidance. Strong Dec ridge in the east and fairly amplified trough out west Pretty good setup for a strong storm popping in the middle of the country that tracks due north. We should root for this. As strong a storm as possible plowing right toward Hudson Bay. This is one way to draw down some cold air and also pull the trough east. It's a process but man, we need something other than this to look at for week on end. lol: Does seem we keep seeing hints of at least 'potential' toward end runs but it also seems to keep getting pushed back. As you know these patterns can be pretty hard to dislodge. I do think even with a bad pattern our source region will get slightly better given growing snowcover.. anomalous warmth is not necessarily too warm for that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Looking good on para Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Does seem we keep seeing hints of at least 'potential' toward end runs but it also seems to keep getting pushed back. As you know these patterns can be pretty hard to dislodge. I do think even with a bad pattern our source region will get slightly better given growing snowcover.. anomalous warmth is not necessarily too warm for that at least. And of course the 12z GEFS strengthens the +ao, goa trough, and -pna towards the end. sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Hot 850 500 MB mean on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 meh, wouldn't want to be canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Hudson bay ice will take a hit looking at that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 things are def locked in for a while. The MJO must have broke too MJO often breaks during strong nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Euro d10 has a decent migration north of the heights toward greenland but it also pops a SE ridge as the western trough digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 Euro d10 has a decent migration north of the heights toward greenland but it also pops a SE ridge as the western trough digs. Isn't that a Euro bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Isn't that a Euro bias? I dunno. It was a long while back I'm not sure it really is these days. But it's not necessarily it trapping it in the SW. Big -PNA in that time frame.. natural response on EC.. if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I dunno. It was a long while back I'm not sure it really is these days. But it's not necessarily it trapping it in the SW. Big -PNA in that time frame.. natural response on EC.. if it's right. La SuperNino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The EURO ensembles still suck for us through at least Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The EURO ensembles still suck for us through at least Day 10 They get worse at 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 They get worse at 360. Compare to the 0z run. Actually quite a bit better (relatively speaking of course) D10-15. Not torchy. Seems like the ens are picking up on the potential cooler shot. Looks transient but I'll take what I can fookin get in this debacle of a month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Compare to the 0z run. Actually quite a bit better (relatively speaking of course) D10-15. Not torchy. Seems like the ens are picking up on the potential cooler shot. Looks transient but I'll take what I can fookin get in this debacle of a month so far. Yes, it does... but still looks like any "sustained" cool shot is not in the picture anytime soon... perhaps it will be a Christmas gift from Santa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Compare to the 0z run. Actually quite a bit better (relatively speaking of course) D10-15. Not torchy. Seems like the ens are picking up on the potential cooler shot. Looks transient but I'll take what I can fookin get in this debacle of a month so far. Yeah that's true. I hadn't looked at 0z. It is a bit better there for a bit. Though with the height anomalies where they are offshore not sure it means a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Yeah that's true. I hadn't looked at 0z. It is a bit better there for a bit. Though with the height anomalies where they are offshore not sure it means a ton. Just trying to make some lemonade. Interestingly, the ens mean has the 850 0c line actually SOUTH of DC on d15. whoa. And there are 2 ens members with good snow now. Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just trying to make some lemonade. Interestingly, the ens mean has the 850 0c line actually SOUTH of DC on d15. whoa. And there are 2 ens members with good snow now. Baby steps... Ahh yes, good find. Back to normal for the time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Yea Bob, was going to mention that the 12z EURO took a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Weeklies aren't as bad as I thought they would be. At least with heights in nw canada/ak late in the run. Split flow look and not a torch here. No blocking of course. Looping through the last week of the month you can see the aleutian low retro and heights build in the epo region. Not great overall but could be worse. Verbatim would be warm during Christmas for those who like that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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