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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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GFS has a cold rain/wet snow west on the 17th then WinterWxLuvr storm in the pipeline at 384.  #itshappening 

 

Something I've been thinking about...

 

The d10 pattern is unanimous across all guidance. Strong Dec ridge in the east and fairly amplified trough out west

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png

 

 

Pretty good setup for a strong storm popping in the middle of the country that tracks due north. We should root for this. As strong a storm as possible plowing right toward Hudson Bay. This is one way to draw down some cold air and also pull the trough east. It's a process but man, we need something other than this to look at for week on end. lol:

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_3.png

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Something I've been thinking about...

 

The d10 pattern is unanimous across all guidance. Strong Dec ridge in the east and fairly amplified trough out west

 

 

 

Pretty good setup for a strong storm popping in the middle of the country that tracks due north. We should root for this. As strong a storm as possible plowing right toward Hudson Bay. This is one way to draw down some cold air and also pull the trough east. It's a process but man, we need something other than this to look at for week on end. lol:

 

 

 

Does seem we keep seeing hints of at least 'potential' toward end runs but it also seems to keep getting pushed back. As you know these patterns can be pretty hard to dislodge. I do think even with a bad pattern our source region will get slightly better given growing snowcover.. anomalous warmth is not necessarily too warm for that at least. 

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Does seem we keep seeing hints of at least 'potential' toward end runs but it also seems to keep getting pushed back. As you know these patterns can be pretty hard to dislodge. I do think even with a bad pattern our source region will get slightly better given growing snowcover.. anomalous warmth is not necessarily too warm for that at least. 

 

And of course the 12z GEFS strengthens the +ao, goa trough, and -pna towards the end. sigh. 

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Isn't that a Euro bias?

I dunno. It was a long while back I'm not sure it really is these days. But it's not necessarily it trapping it in the SW. Big -PNA in that time frame.. natural response on EC.. if it's right. 

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Compare to the 0z run. Actually quite a bit better (relatively speaking of course) D10-15. Not torchy. Seems like the ens are picking up on the potential cooler shot. Looks transient but I'll take what I can fookin get in this debacle of a month so far. 

 

Yes, it does... but still looks like any "sustained" cool shot is not in the picture anytime soon... perhaps it will be a Christmas gift from Santa?

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Compare to the 0z run. Actually quite a bit better (relatively speaking of course) D10-15. Not torchy. Seems like the ens are picking up on the potential cooler shot. Looks transient but I'll take what I can fookin get in this debacle of a month so far. 

Yeah that's true. I hadn't looked at 0z. It is a bit better there for a bit. Though with the height anomalies where they are offshore not sure it means a ton.

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Yeah that's true. I hadn't looked at 0z. It is a bit better there for a bit. Though with the height anomalies where they are offshore not sure it means a ton.

 

Just trying to make some lemonade. Interestingly, the ens mean has the 850 0c line actually SOUTH of DC on d15. whoa. And there are 2 ens members with good snow now. Baby steps... 

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Just trying to make some lemonade. Interestingly, the ens mean has the 850 0c line actually SOUTH of DC on d15. whoa. And there are 2 ens members with good snow now. Baby steps... 

Ahh yes, good find. Back to normal for the time of year! 

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Weeklies aren't as bad as I thought they would be. At least with heights in nw canada/ak late in the run. Split flow look and not a torch here. No blocking of course. Looping through the last week of the month you can see the aleutian low retro and heights build in the epo region. Not great overall but could be worse. Verbatim would be warm during Christmas for those who like that sort of thing. 

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