Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 A complete shut-out (0 snow or sleet) is rare, but no measurable has a 23% chance in any given year based on the entire historical record, and a 30% chance based on the 1981-2010 period. Right off the bat. This year those odds are elevated, for sure. I still expect this month to end up warmer than normal (not exactly going out on a limb there!), perhaps even well above normal. But I would be surprised at a shut-out for snow all the same. A mangled, slushy inch closer in-town with maybe a bit more farther out seems like a decent bet at least at some point. Last year, even DCA managed to trace out (not a zero), with a +4 departure for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Ugh January cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Ugh January cancel? that makes no sense considering what Tropical Tidbits has from the Canadian for January 2m temps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 that makes no sense considering what Tropical Tidbits has from the Canadian for January 2m temps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=384 precip http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 We've seen a lot worse, that's for certain! Ignoring the eye-sore that is the 970 Great Lakes low , it is indeed nice to see at least a fantasy -NAO and a huge high over Greenland late in the GFS run. Yeah, I have to admit that the GFS the past couple of days has been showing glimmers of hope beyond about mid-month. Nothing spectacular, mind you, but something that leads one to hope for better changes down the road rather than a wall-to-wall Pacific firehose. It remains to be seen, of course, if there's any validity to this, but it will keep me looking at least. The only problem is the GEFS still are keeping the AO negative and the heights below normal over Greenland. The GFS could be right but could also be very wrong. I wouldn't bet on the AO going negative as soon as the GFS is forecasting with the GEFS and Euro ensemble means still showing a positive AO though they certainly are not as positive as earlier in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 that makes no sense considering what Tropical Tidbits has from the Canadian for January 2m temps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=384 Even if it did, temps of normal to +1 isn't going to impact winter weather chances. At least not enough to be concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 that makes no sense considering what Tropical Tidbits has from the Canadian for JanuaryI pretty much only look at h5 on the seasonals. Then look at the calendar and draw my own temp maps in my head. Seasonal model 2m temp maps have a habit of not matching the upper levels.I would take the CANSIPS h5 for Jan and run with it any year. Not perfect but far far from awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Agree- that's crazy. Any idea why the discrepancy? that makes no sense considering what Tropical Tidbits has from the Canadian for January 2m temps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The only problem is the GEFS still are keeping the AO negative and the heights below normal over Greenland. The GFS could be right but could also be very wrong. I wouldn't bet on the AO going negative as soon as the GFS is forecasting with the GEFS and Euro ensemble means still showing a positive AO though they certainly are not as positive as earlier in the period. Oh, I know...and I did notice that in the ensembles, too. I was just trying to say that it's much less hostile-looking at the least...enough to keep me watching, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I pretty much only look at h5 on the seasonals. Then look at the calendar and draw my own temp maps in my head. Seasonal model 2m temp maps have a habit of not matching the upper levels. I would take the CANSIPS h5 for Jan and run with it any year. Not perfect but far far from awful. I didn't post the 5H because the map that was posted was for 2m temps and I wanted to compare apples to apples 5H looks better than the 2m temp and precip maps imho, so here it is for those that didn't look http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 So which should we choose? I didn't post the 5H because the map that was posted was for 2m temps and I wanted to compare apples to apples 5H looks better than the 2m temp and precip maps imho, so here it is for those that didn't look http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 who cares what the op gfs shows at the end of the run Everybody does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 So which should we choose? even more stark when you consider the Tropical Tidbit BN temps are in Celsius and SV AN are in Fahrenheit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 My guess is SV is right. The anomalies match the 500 anomalies better. Plus those are some serious anomalies on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I'm not really familiar with CANSIPS but last mo on Tidbits was pretty lol for Jan. Areas of -15 departure?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I heard from the SV developer. He says Tidbits isn't using hindcast climo for some reason. Not completely sure what that means other than the 2m maps are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 18z GFS is going to have that coastal low idea again in the Day 7 range... gets captured at 168 at 995mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 GFS once again showing that mini nuke for next Tuesday, strictly a rain storm obviously, but could have a lot of moisture and decent wind...EURO showed it as well. If we cant get snow I'd at least like to track a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 GFS once again showing that mini nuke for next Tuesday, strictly a rain storm obviously, but could have a lot of moisture and decent wind...EURO showed it as well. If we cant get snow I'd at least like to track a storm. Always think we waste opportunities and do not get too many for good track.. but no cold air is an us - obviouis! Cold rain! Maybe some highest mountains snow? A lot of cold rain on that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 0z Euro pounds us pretty good...1.5"+...prolonged event...though Euro loves 3 day events and they usually end up being way shorter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 0z Euro pounds us pretty good...1.5"+...prolonged event...though Euro loves 3 day events and they usually end up being way shorter....Back to back euro runs with a big soaker in the same time frame. Gfs has different versions but similar. It's probably the only interesting thing we have to watch for an extended period of time. LR guidance is pushing back any meaningful change for our area (as expected).LR guidance nailed the crappy pattern we are entering at long leads. I see no reason to doubt anything that is currently being advertised. It's going to be a long month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Back to back euro runs with a big soaker in the same time frame. Gfs has different versions but similar. It's probably the only interesting thing we have to watch for an extended period of time. LR guidance is pushing back any meaningful change for our area (as expected). LR guidance nailed the crappy pattern we are entering at long leads. I see no reason to doubt anything that is currently being advertised. It's going to be a long month... Yeah, but the days are shorter so it should go fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yeah, but the days are shorter so it should go fast. There are some winters that find any excuse to be cold and snowy, on the other hand there are some that get caught in a loop of warm and snowless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 There are some winters that find any excuse to be cold and snowy, on the other hand there are some that get caught in a loop of warm and snowless.... Some winters are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have +AO, +NAO, +EPO and -PNA thrust upon them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 12z gfs run toook about 9 steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 12z GGEM has a decent amount of lows coming up the coast... too bad they are all rain for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 12z GGEM has a decent amount of lows coming up the coast... too bad they are all rain for all of us Hard to imagine the storm shown on the GFS for next week as an all rain event. Usually would have liked that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 nice look at long range GEFS in SE thread by Jon...gives a glimmer of hope for some sort of change for the better after 18th...or at least a step in right direction perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 12z EURO at 144 looks like a pounding again for next Mon night into Tuesday morning... 999 SLP right near or over ORF with the h5 energy being captured its seems... 168 has it moving east away from the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Very compact precip shield on the 12z euro. Very heavy rain in SEVA but around a half inch DCA. Sharp cutoff as you go nw. Details don't mean much though. Long ways out. The idea of a fairly potent coastal rain storm remains another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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