BTRWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Mildly interesting around the pole towards the end of the euro run. Would be a neg nao and at least a neutral AO. Maybe neg. Probably a blip but something worth watching New Year's Miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Keep seeing signs of big ole bowling balls too. Def should get less boring as we we leave 2015 it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Keep seeing signs of big ole bowling balls too. Def should get less boring as we we leave 2015 it seems. One of them need to roll right up and punch the orange blob right in the face and knock it the f out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 If you look at the end of the GEFS run, we see ridging/higher heights in the Pacific NW, and while we still look to have higher heights over us, it doesn't look as bad. Still warmer than normal, but not by a whole lot from what I can see. Baby steps. Yeah, that PNA ridge has survived for more than 2 runs so that's something I guess. AO still just super positive though. Might be enough to at least see some snow however. Still 2 weeks of blowtorch to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Mildly interesting around the pole towards the end of the euro run. Would be a neg nao and at least a neutral AO. Maybe neg. Probably a blip but something worth watching Quite a Scandinavian High on dat dere map too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Mildly interesting around the pole towards the end of the euro run. Would be a neg nao and at least a neutral AO. Maybe neg. Probably a blip but something worth watching What's this? Oranges and reds encroaching on the Polar regions and in the Greenland area? Unheard of! To be more serious, this is at least a positive sign...at least would hope so. As you said, worthy of watching right now. Hopefully not a blip. It is also nice to see more active weather appearing, relatively speaking. Thus far this month, that's been pretty lacking for the most part. (ETA: I take it you are referring to the "orange blob" that's extends over the eastern US, when you say you wish one of those bowling balls would "punch the orange blob right in the face and knock it the f out"! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro ens looking ok again. Nice to see 3 runs in a row. Stronger signal for an Aleutian low/goa ridge building. No sign of higher heights over the pole or Greenland. Mean 850 0c line makes it to the mason Dixon. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro ens looking ok again. Nice to see 3 runs in a row. Stronger signal for an Aleutian low/goa ridge building. No sign of higher heights over the pole or Greenland. Mean 850 0c line makes it to the mason Dixon. Baby steps.Just give me the signal when it's time to sign up for Wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 00z GFS takes too long to move the bowling ball and the H says bye bye and rain we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 00z GFS takes too long to move the bowling ball and the H says bye bye and rain we getAnd we were supposed to torch into the 70's on Christmas 2 days ago. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 And we were supposed to torch into the 70's on Christmas 2 days ago. Just sayin'. If we can get that bowling ball to eject faster... it could get a lil interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 And we were supposed to torch into the 70's on Christmas 2 days ago. Just sayin'. It's going to torch at some point in the next 5-10.. maybe not the whole stretch. Tho even the non torch part is pretty warm for this time of year unless it rains the whole time or something. I think that's a possible wildcard with the old frontal boundary chilling in the region and moisture riding along at times. But even the cooler GFS is like +15-+20 going into Christmas, a cooler Christmas Day of +10s, then perhaps bigger torch after. People probably bought onto the ensemble signal a little hard. It's a little silly to throw out breaking records by 10 degrees from 10 days out even if every model shows the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 This is definitely a torch if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 And we were supposed to torch into the 70's on Christmas 2 days ago. Just sayin'. Wouldn't that also mean it's accuracy in predicting cold and snow is flawed as well? Why only believe the models when they show snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Wouldn't that also mean it's accuracy in predicting cold and snow is flawed as well? Why only believe the models when they show snow? There's no need to account for uncertainty in the model guidance. You can believe whatever you want around here. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It could still torch into 70s on Christmas. A lot can happen in 6 days. I thought Eve would be rainy now it looks fairly dry. 52 and cloudy would be perfect at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It could still torch into 70s on Christmas. A lot can happen in 6 days. I thought Eve would be rainy now it looks fairly dry. 52 and cloudy would be perfect at this point.It could torch on Christmas, but the odds are rapidly declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It could torch on Christmas, but the odds are rapidly declining. That would be awesome. I know +15 still in play but maybe clouds will stream in so we can build a fire and not perspire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 50s and sunshine will be just fine for an afternoon drive up I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It's going to torch at some point in the next 5-10.. maybe not the whole stretch. Tho even the non torch part is pretty warm for this time of year unless it rains the whole time or something. I think that's a possible wildcard with the old frontal boundary chilling in the region and moisture riding along at times. But even the cooler GFS is like +15-+20 going into Christmas, a cooler Christmas Day of +10s, then perhaps bigger torch after. People probably bought onto the ensemble signal a little hard. It's a little silly to throw out breaking records by 10 degrees from 10 days out even if every model shows the potential. Well, I was referring to Christmas day ensembles. I do not doubt in any way a torch around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Times are tough when you're hoping for 50s in the middle of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Times are tough when you're hoping for 50s in the middle of winterWe'll be redeemed for our patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 We'll be redeemed for our patience. I'll look forward to the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Although it's an op run the 12z shows a SOC type pattern in the longer range....Same Ol' Crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 In fact there is almost no time when the 540 thickness line is near us...again it's an op run but this seems appears to be less than ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well, I was referring to Christmas day ensembles. I do not doubt in any way a torch around Christmas. Well still some time for shifts but 12z GFS has a +21 for Christmas day at DCA. I think we've seen too much torch lately if we think that's not a torch. Tho it is cooler than the +28 on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Although it's an op run the 12z shows a SOC type pattern in the longer range....Same Ol' Crap Thanks. Please keep posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Thanks. Please keep posting.[/quote Thanks. I always enjoy your posts as well. I think you are one of the more informed and meaningful contributors to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Thanks. Please keep posting. Thanks. I always enjoy your posts as well. I think you are one of the more informed and meaningful contributors to the board. You've definitely got me confused with someone else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Times are tough when you're hoping for 50s in the middle of winter Good thing it's not the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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