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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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If you look at the end of the GEFS run, we see ridging/higher heights in the Pacific NW, and while we still look to have higher heights over us, it doesn't look as bad.

Still warmer than normal, but not by a whole lot from what I can see. Baby steps.

Yeah, that PNA ridge has survived for more than 2 runs so that's something I guess. AO still just super positive though. Might be enough to at least see some snow however. Still 2 weeks of blowtorch to go.

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Mildly interesting around the pole towards the end of the euro run. Would be a neg nao and at least a neutral AO. Maybe neg. Probably a blip but something worth watching

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

What's this?  Oranges and reds encroaching on the Polar regions and in the Greenland area?  Unheard of!

 

To be more serious, this is at least a positive sign...at least would hope so.  As you said, worthy of watching right now.  Hopefully not a blip.  It is also nice to see more active weather appearing, relatively speaking.  Thus far this month, that's been pretty lacking for the most part.

 

(ETA:  I take it you are referring to the "orange blob" that's extends over the eastern US, when you say you wish one of those bowling balls would "punch the orange blob right in the face and knock it the f out"! ;) )

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And we were supposed to torch into the 70's on Christmas 2 days ago. Just sayin'.

It's going to torch at some point in the next 5-10.. maybe not the whole stretch. Tho even the non torch part is pretty warm for this time of year unless it rains the whole time or something. I think that's a possible wildcard with the old frontal boundary chilling in the region and moisture riding along at times. But even the cooler GFS is like +15-+20 going into Christmas, a cooler Christmas Day of +10s, then perhaps bigger torch after.

 

People probably bought onto the ensemble signal a little hard. It's a little silly to throw out breaking records by 10 degrees from 10 days out even if every model shows the potential.

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Wouldn't that also mean it's accuracy in predicting cold and snow is flawed as well? Why only believe the models when they show snow?

 

There's no need to account for uncertainty in the model guidance. You can believe whatever you want around here. Enjoy!   

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It's going to torch at some point in the next 5-10.. maybe not the whole stretch. Tho even the non torch part is pretty warm for this time of year unless it rains the whole time or something. I think that's a possible wildcard with the old frontal boundary chilling in the region and moisture riding along at times. But even the cooler GFS is like +15-+20 going into Christmas, a cooler Christmas Day of +10s, then perhaps bigger torch after.

People probably bought onto the ensemble signal a little hard. It's a little silly to throw out breaking records by 10 degrees from 10 days out even if every model shows the potential.

Well, I was referring to Christmas day ensembles. I do not doubt in any way a torch around Christmas.
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Well, I was referring to Christmas day ensembles. I do not doubt in any way a torch around Christmas.

Well still some time for shifts but 12z GFS has a +21 for Christmas day at DCA. I think we've seen too much torch lately if we think that's not a torch. :P

 

Tho it is cooler than the +28 on Thurs.

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