NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Christmas Eve isn't necessarily a lock in my opinion for a super torch, models are certainly for it, but their are ways that it can be cooler. 12z GGEM has highs upper 50s for Christmas Eve, but it looks out of sort compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I don't think anyone takes an op verbatim for warmth at 348 hours. Talking about every 300+ hr snow event on an op is just dumb. We should be smarter than that here, or at least put it in a place where people who know it's nonsense don't have to read about it. I guess I am weary of endless posts talking about how ****awful the pattern is for anything approaching snow. I have no problem with someone noting something on an op (warmth or snow)- and am smart enough to fit that into the other musings. I cannot imagine, if you were serious about it, why we would need yet another thread for that. Heck, given the posts on the pattern looking SLIGHTLY less hostile at some point, noting storms that might be snowing somewhere in the east at some point in next two weeks kinda underscores the potential for something to change. I get that some people are beyond thrilled about warmth unending, but at least SOME cold in the wintertime would not be a bad thing. If only to maybe kill the mosquitos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 If Christmas plays out as the latest GFS has it, then that's a remarkable job by the GFS. It has had that same forecast since about day 11 I think. Pretty good if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 I guess I am weary of endless posts talking about how ****awful the pattern is for anything approaching snow. I have no problem with someone noting something on an op (warmth or snow)- and am smart enough to fit that into the other musings. I cannot imagine, if you were serious about it, why we would need yet another thread for that. Heck, given the posts on the pattern looking SLIGHTLY less hostile at some point, noting storms that might be snowing somewhere in the east at some point in next two weeks kinda underscores the potential for something to change. I get that some people are beyond thrilled about warmth unending, but at least SOME cold in the wintertime would not be a bad thing. If only to maybe kill the mosquitos. He isn't serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We should have a separate thread for these kind of posts. dont have we have that digital thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Dunno. I guess not. I follow Ian on twitter and have been seeing reds on maps for weeks and weeks now. Maybe conflating that with a serious criticism of someone noting something different on one op run. Maybe I qualify for finally melting down over this pattern. Will consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 If the rule is no one can notice or comment on snow/cold chances in long range in the long range thread, that's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 If the rule is no one can notice or comment on snow/cold chances in long range in the long range thread, that's weird. I think it's ok. Beyond 10 days is probably pretty silly though. I'm curious to see what the Euro has in the day 9-10 range today. I think that time is at least worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 He isn't serious. Well at least start a Jan thread when talking about Jan stuff. I'm not going to fall on the sword over this one but considering the almost total lack of skill on an op outside 7 days.... eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 If the rule is no one can notice or comment on snow/cold chances in long range in the long range thread, that's weird. Don't be dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I think it's ok. Beyond 10 days is probably pretty silly though. I'm curious to see what the Euro has in the day 9-10 range today. I think that time is at least worth watching. I don't know that we need to bunch our pantaloons in worry over people taking an op run at 348 verbatim. This is a fairly sophisticated board for the most part, I think we can trust most on here to know how to handle someone noting something that far out. If there are those here that cannot, maybe they can be helped to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Don't be dumb. Fine. But your comment was aimed at squelching the observation on some level from Yoda. Not a fan of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 And if I misread that, my apologies. I have now started a January long-range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Fine. But your comment was aimed at squelching the observation on some level from Yoda. Not a fan of that. Nah... his comment was okay... I understood what he meant and he was kidding around. I probably should have posted it in the banter thread anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Nah... his comment was okay... I understood what he meant and he was kidding around. I probably should have posted it in the banter thread anyway. For what it's worth, commentary on model runs, even that far out, isn't banter in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I probably would be too if I lived in his town. He's north of the mean 850 line. I would have to drive to State College to get there. It's an improved pattern and definitely opens the door for the NE but not us. At least not yet... It's good news for us if you take the long game approach. Most of the nino years that flipped cold the change was gradual. Storms hit the interior first before getting the 95 cities. So seeing snow getting closer to us might be a sign we are next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 For what it's worth, commentary on model runs, even that far out, isn't banter in my view. No one has to listen to me, I was just sharing my view. No need for a snow lover insurrection. Obv you can talk about whatever you want that's related to weather but we'll likely see something about a 300+ hr snow event from now through February and like 1% will verify if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I don't know that we need to bunch our pantaloons in worry over people taking an op run at 348 verbatim. This is a fairly sophisticated board for the most part, I think we can trust most on here to know how to handle someone noting something that far out. If there are those here that cannot, maybe they can be helped to learn. I support what you're saying. Technically speaking "long-range" has no bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We know were in trouble when there are 20 posts in here about what we should or shouldn't be talking about. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 My only concerns are for the newbies who don't understand our posters and the lurkers who might get their hopes up unnecessarily. As for the warm lover-snow lover "conflict", I'm not seeing one. Every single poster save Motsco wants winter to show the **** up. They will learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Well at least start a Jan thread when talking about Jan stuff. I'm not going to fall on the sword over this one but considering the almost total lack of skill on an op outside 7 days.... eh. I've been starting these threads when we are within 5 days of the new month. I don't think we need a new thread for both med and long range. This one will do. Just gotta realize that in a pattern this bad people are going to look as far forward as possible just in the hope of seeing something good. It's all good. I don't think many think that forecasting past 3-5 days is reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I've been starting these threads when we are within 5 days of the new month. I don't think we need a new thread for both med and long range. This one will do. Just gotta realize that in a pattern this bad people are going to look as far forward as possible just in the hope of seeing something good. It's all good. I don't think many think that forecasting past 3-5 days is reliable. Well we're pushing into Jan with some of this talk so might as well have it -- which we do now. I don't think we need a med and long range thread. I'm clearly in the minority who doesn't care to get updates about d14 snow events. So... I'll cease and desist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 My only concerns are for the newbies who don't understand our posters and the lurkers who might get their hopes up unnecessarily. As for the warm lover-snow lover "conflict", I'm not seeing one. Every single poster save Motsco wants winter to show the **** up. Are we talking about children here? I mean, let's get real. If you aren't mature enough to deal with not getting the weather you want, then you should probably frequent some place other than a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I've been starting these threads when we are within 5 days of the new month. I don't think we need a new thread for both med and long range. This one will do. Just gotta realize that in a pattern this bad people are going to look as far forward as possible just in the hope of seeing something good. It's all good. I don't think many think that forecasting past 3-5 days is reliable. Not in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Not in this pattern. Not really in any pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 12z euro shows a sneaky midnight high in the low 60's for a lot of us on Xmas so at least we get to book another big + high temps before the cooler air filters in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Any precip? Eve or day on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Any precip? Eve or day on euro Some light showers on the eve. Dry xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Couple of the GEFS members (cough cough P018 and P005) smack us good around hr 240... and a few at 252 (P005 continuation from 240). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Mildly interesting around the pole towards the end of the euro run. Would be a neg nao and at least a neutral AO. Maybe neg. Probably a blip but something worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.