WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 The GFS took a big step toward the Euro for Christmas, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 This is going to be an interesting run from the GFS tonight... 1044 H in Upper Midwest and slowly moving east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 00z GFS LR shows up with a decent amount of storminess after Dec 27th to the end of the run... granted we probably are going to have to thread the needle to get snow... but the chances are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro folded on Christmas day. #cold #santabombhypedeath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 At least it looks not as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 what's that little short wave surprise on Xmas on 6Z? not snow but certainly brings a little 850 purple line love which I will raise a toast to if it happens. I will attempt to find any shred of anything this year related to winter and love it 'til it dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 A thin sliver of blue is showing up on the 6z on New Year's Eve. The signal is still there and cold air is on our doorstep. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 EPS improved slightly from 12z. Knocked down the + height anomaly to our NE a shade. More of an Aleutian low signal in a good spot. Continues to fit the progression on the weeklies. Ao/nao continue to suck of course. Attm it looks like the first week of Jan will possibly feature a +pna/-epo and +ao/nao configuration. Which is way better than what we have now but far from ideal. At least we'll get away from putting up +15 departures. Just gotta hope things improve from there and not regress to the persistent Dec pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 ^^^^^^^^ Bob said it was going to snow. ^^^^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 6Z GFS finally has some things to be interested about. The cutter 10 days out with the a nice high over the lakes could lead to a little front end thump before the rain comes in. I know its ugly. But I am just begging to see a few flakes at this point. At least the long range pattern is tons better than anything modeled over the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 ^^^^^^^^ Bob said it was going to snow. ^^^^^^^^^ Remember, I'm an odds poster. We're going from a less than 1% chance of frozen to a less than 10% chance over the next 2 weeks. Subject to change every 24 hours...or less...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Remember, I'm an odds poster. We're going from a less than 1% chance of frozen to a less than 10% chance over the next 2 weeks. Subject to change every 24 hours...or less...lol So you're calling for Jan 7, 1996. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 So you're calling for Jan 7, 1996. Cool. That's how I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 So you're calling for Jan 7, 1996. Cool. I'm not but #35 says it happens before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 6Z GFS finally has some things to be interested about. The cutter 10 days out with the a nice high over the lakes could lead to a little front end thump before the rain comes in. I know its ugly. But I am just begging to see a few flakes at this point. At least the long range pattern is tons better than anything modeled over the past month. This... I wouldnt mind seeing some flakes before it gets ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 EPS improved slightly from 12z. Knocked down the + height anomaly to our NE a shade. More of an Aleutian low signal in a good spot. Continues to fit the progression on the weeklies. Ao/nao continue to suck of course. Attm it looks like the first week of Jan will possibly feature a +pna/-epo and +ao/nao configuration. Which is way better than what we have now but far from ideal. At least we'll get away from putting up +15 departures. Just gotta hope things improve from there and not regress to the persistent Dec pattern. ORH was much more excited about the 00z ensemble run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 ORH was much more excited about the 00z ensemble run I probably would be too if I lived in his town. He's north of the mean 850 line. I would have to drive to State College to get there. It's an improved pattern and definitely opens the door for the NE but not us. At least not yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Good morning 1040+ HP in the Upper Plains, Please move eastward faster. I would appreciate it. Thanks, Weather Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 unless I am reading it wrong Christmas Day doesn't look like a record torch...Eve maybe....its not deep winter but not 70F either on the 25th...front clears and its breezy and 50ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm not but #35 says it happens before then #35.JPG I like how the 1025 Hp off the coast would steer any TD from the bahamas right into SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 unless I am reading it wrong Christmas Day doesn't look like a record torch...Eve maybe....its not deep winter but not 70F either on the 25th...front clears and its breezy and 50ish Euro got schooled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Dang... 252 looked like it was going to be real nice for us... then 264 made it ugly... but I like the run for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro got schooled Great now you've angered the almighty one and he likely finds your lack of faith disturbing...he just put down his pint of beer, left the pub, and is cooking up a real toasty treat for the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 LR GFS shows another "snowstorm" around hr 348 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 LR GFS shows another "snowstorm" around hr 348 We should have a separate thread for these kind of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We should have a separate thread for these kind of posts. Probably, but the 12z GFS seems to be advertising a 5 day window for something wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Ian - seems to me if people can honk the 10 and 15 day for warmth, Yoda can note same for something wintry. Both in fantasy-land, but both have been posted of late. This seems like the thread to post it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 That day 10 event on the GFS is on the EURO as well. Most of the ensemles don't lock up the HP long enough for it to be anything but rain, however the setup is actually there if we could get the low to move quicker. Way out there, but maybe something to look @ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We should have a separate thread for these kind of posts. Rather see those posts than the endless doom of a warm LR, but you love them so theyre okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Ian - seems to me if people can honk the 10 and 15 day for warmth, Yoda can note same for something wintry. Both in fantasy-land, but both have been posted of late. This seems like the thread to post it in. I don't think anyone takes an op verbatim for warmth at 348 hours. Talking about every 300+ hr snow event on an op is just dumb. We should be smarter than that here, or at least put it in a place where people who know it's nonsense don't have to read about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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