Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GEFS keeps dropping cookie crumbs about things changing. At least out west. The majority of members on the 12z run show a ridge poking up through the pac nw late in the run. Ens mean reflects this. We're kinda in no mans land though... The 00Z GEFS mean was similar, and had a not too bad look at the end of its run, kind of a PNA-looking pattern. Not ideal, but definitely looked better. The corresponding 850 temperatures, however, looked a bit warmer than I might have expected given that flow pattern. (ETA: Could be because the heights themselves are not all that low here, or a few members skewing the 850s warmer. Just speculation.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro backed off more on Christmas torch but still a fairly wide gap between it and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro backed off more on Christmas torch but still a fairly wide gap between it and GFS. Gettin ready to fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro backed off more on Christmas torch but still a fairly wide gap between it and GFS. So we may not be singing "Bring a torch, Jeanette, Isabella..." this Christmas? Embrace the 50 degrees and wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro backed off more on Christmas torch but still a fairly wide gap between it and GFS. so white christmas is still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 so white christmas is still on the table? if you count a busted salt shaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 so white christmas is still on the table? Yes. Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Meeting in the middle Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Eps similar to gefs with replacing the low height anomaly with a + anomaly out west. A significant pattern change for them. We still suffer with ridging to the NE and AN temps but not torchy. Hard to say how things would progress if the ens are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Eps similar to gefs with replacing the low height anomaly with a + anomaly out west. A significant pattern change for them. We still suffer with ridging to the NE and AN temps but not torchy. Hard to say how things would progress if the ens are correct. Well, at least it is something different and opens the door a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Eps similar to gefs with replacing the low height anomaly with a + anomaly out west. A significant pattern change for them. We still suffer with ridging to the NE and AN temps but not torchy. Hard to say how things would progress if the ens are correct. Better than nothing, but that -EPO that was teased by the GEFS yesterday is totally gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Better than nothing, but that -EPO that was teased by the GEFS yesterday is totally gone. Anything other than a transient -EPO must be fairly unusual in a stronger Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Anything other than a transient -EPO must be fairly unusual in a stronger Nino. True, but SE ridges are unusual as well and here we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 this probably means your going through a rough winter stretch ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Better than nothing, but that -EPO that was teased by the GEFS yesterday is totally gone. Yea, epo region is volatile during nino's. It helps anytime it's - but having it anchored isn't something to put money on. I did catch another significant difference between last nights and today's eps run. I'm posting the maps out of curiosity as to what others think. Check out the pole. Last night was a strong and consolidated vortex: This afternoon is a lot different. It's unusual to see the EPS jump like this. Could be a total blip but heights are split (a byproduct of spread?) and heights certainly higher. Still a +AO of course but not a big blue beast... Something to watch in an otherwise non-existent winter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Yea, epo region is volatile during nino's. It helps anytime it's - but having it anchored isn't something to put money on. I did catch another significant difference between last nights and today's eps run. I'm posting the maps out of curiosity as to what others think. Check out the pole. Last night was a strong and consolidated vortex: 0zeps.JPG This afternoon is a lot different. It's unusual to see the EPS jump like this. Could be a total blip but heights are split (a byproduct of spread?) and heights certainly higher. Still a +AO of course but not a big blue beast... Something to watch in an otherwise non-existent winter pattern 12zeps.JPG all the colors are still in the wrong place. They just arent as dark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 all the colors are still in the wrong place. They just arent as dark! It's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro weeklies look better. Week 4 not terrible. Atlantic is meh and probably more of a west of us favored pattern but southern stream and PNA/EPO cooperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I guess we need a january thread already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro weeklies look better. Week 4 not terrible. Atlantic is meh and probably more of a west of us favored pattern but southern stream and PNA/EPO cooperation. Just ran though them. You know it's been rough when a vastly improved pattern compared to now still so-so. End of week 4 actually starts looking kinda good though. They do make me optimistic that even the first week of Jan could have some chilly days. H5 implies no problem getting cold to dump down even if transient. Agree that big storms would favor a west track basically both weeks 3-4. AO not raging + at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A less terrible pattern is leaps and bounds better than this I guess. Just came out in daily form on wxbell.. looks workable by like Jan 7-10+ or so. Cold western 2/3rds to start Jan overall. I'm not sold a +PNA is what we're looking for in a strong Nino even tho it works overall. That type of look actually builds during week three but tends to fade again late by d 30 or so. Let's get the storms rolling I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Just ran though them. You know it's been rough when a vastly improved pattern compared to now still so-so. End of week 4 actually starts looking kinda good though. They do make me optimistic that even the first week of Jan could have some chilly days. H5 implies no problem getting cold to dump down even if transient. Agree that big storms would favor a west track basically both weeks 3-4. AO not raging + at least. I guess I'm mainly figuring even if we see a better pattern we're going to run into lots of issues so I'm overeager to see a perfect pattern. But no doubt it's as good as we've seen. Above avg precip here 3 of 4 weeks.. that's a bit of a change in itself. Both week three and 4 appear they could try to light up some GOM to EC coastal activity which I think is also hinted at at least here and there by the ops/ens etc. Rather dry in CA interestingly enough. Tho I think there are hints of a GOA low returning late so perhaps just a pause for the WC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Signal for snow is there again around Jan 1 on 18z Op GFS. Wheres Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I guess I'm mainly figuring even if we see a better pattern we're going to run into lots of issues so I'm overeager to see a perfect pattern. But no doubt it's as good as we've seen. Above avg precip here 3 of 4 weeks.. that's a bit of a change in itself. Both week three and 4 appear they could try to light up some GOM to EC coastal activity which I think is also hinted at at least here and there by the ops/ens etc. Rather dry in CA interestingly enough. Tho I think there are hints of a GOA low returning late so perhaps just a pause for the WC. Definitely a STJ look on the means. A real nino type of one. Whole country is cold late week 4. That's our prime cold temp climo too. Like you said, not perfect but I'd welcome the entire run for sure. Heights creeping up around the pole throughout....#83redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Just came out in daily form on wxbell.. looks workable by like Jan 7-10+ or so. Cold western 2/3rds to start Jan overall. I'm not sold a +PNA is what we're looking for in a strong Nino even tho it works overall. That type of look actually builds during week three but tends to fade again late by d 30 or so. Let's get the storms rolling I guess. It's what we are looking with a positive AO cause we all know that won't be changing in the next 30 plus days . Give me a brief PNA and -EPO even if it's transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It's what we are looking with a positive AO cause we all know that won't be changing in the next 30 plus days . Give me a brief PNA and -EPO even if it's transient What good would that do? Think we might get lucky and time something? It would just be a brief chilly shot most likely. Need a meaningful change in the Pacific pattern regardless of what the AO does. Otherwise its more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What good would that do? Think we might get lucky and time something? It would just be a brief chilly shot most likely. Need a meaningful change in the Pacific pattern regardless of what the AO does. Otherwise its more of the same.That was my point .clearly I didn't do a good job. Thing is last year we were saved by the EPO and there are no signs that a - EPO is gonna lock in . I agree about the pacific . But yes I would take my chances with timing something and luck right now vs 70 damn degrees Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Definitely a STJ look on the means. A real nino type of one. Whole country is cold late week 4. That's our prime cold temp climo too. Like you said, not perfect but I'd welcome the entire run for sure. Heights creeping up around the pole throughout....#83redux Stop talking dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Signal for snow is there again around Jan 1 on 18z Op GFS. Wheres Yoda? I was actuallly in a meeting But yes, the Dec 29 to January 2 time period has my interest piqued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 I guess we need a january thread already Give it a few days...I'll get on it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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