Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z GFS OP at the very end of its run is developing a large Miller A with lots of QPF Nice bowling ball. 0C line runs from Canada to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New Jamstec that just came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Your money is on...?Well the Euro almost never loses to the GFS at range and its ensembles strongly support it so I'd have to lean Euro. At same time records don't often get blown out of the water so I wonder if there's a trick or two ahead with december record looking more and more like a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z EURO at 192 has rising heights/ridge over Alaska and no Aleutian low, while 216 has the ridge just offshore of the West Coast... that's good news for us, correct? Also, I like the look at 240... bowling ball/cut off SLP (possible) in SW and 1044 H in Upper Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z EURO at 192 has rising heights/ridge over Alaska and no Aleutian low, while 216 has the ridge just offshore of the West Coast... that's good news for us, correct? Also, I like the look at 240... bowling ball/cut off SLP (possible) in SW and 1044 H in Upper Midwest Would be more promising if there wasn't a high off SC and a huge ridge in front of it. That's cutting to Chicago. But at least there are finally some encouraging signs showing up in the long range. Baby step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Looking at the GFS and Euro ens, I don't see much of anything that looks good...............or different. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like I'm looking at the same image for about a month. I wish I had copied some images. I'll bet if you put them on top of each other, you'd just have a stack of the same thing. Incredible consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Anybody think we can get the AO to go over 5 on its next swing? 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 My previous comments were based on yesterdays ensembles, the `12z GEFS yesterday were better, had some ridging over Alaska and hinted the pattern might be shifting, last nights run had none of that and is right back to no hope through day 15. I am not panicking yet for the whole winter, I didn't really expect much good before mid January anyways, but this pattern isn't going to just flip with no warning. Also, all of the examples of really good snow patterns in Nino's were accompanied by a PV split or displacement of some sort. WE didn't have AO help the last few years but I don't think its going to work out this year without it. That is something that takes time and then the pattern usually comes a week or two after as well. So we need to start seeing signs by the second week of January or so or then I start to feel this winter may be a total loss. ETA: by total loss I don't mean no snow at all, we could get a few nickel and dime type events even with no help from the AO, but if we want to cash in with any meaningful or significant snowfall we probably need the AO to cooperate some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 My previous comments were based on yesterdays ensembles, the `12z GEFS yesterday were better, had some ridging over Alaska and hinted the pattern might be shifting, last nights run had none of that and is right back to no hope through day 15. I am not panicking yet for the whole winter, I didn't really expect much good before mid January anyways, but this pattern isn't going to just flip with no warning. Also, all of the examples of really good snow patterns in Nino's were accompanied by a PV split or displacement of some sort. WE didn't have AO help the last few years but I don't think its going to work out this year without it. That is something that takes time and then the pattern usually comes a week or two after as well. So we need to start seeing signs by the second week of January or so or then I start to feel this winter may be a total loss. ETA: by total loss I don't mean no snow at all, we could get a few nickel and dime type events even with no help from the AO, but if we want to cash in with any meaningful or significant snowfall we probably need the AO to cooperate some. I can't imagine a pattern like this holding all the way through, but in it's current state, I don't even think snow is remotely possible, unless one considers flurries as snow. So, if it were to continue, I could see a total shutout being within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I can't imagine a pattern like this holding all the way through, but in it's current state, I don't even think snow is remotely possible, unless one considers flurries as snow. So, if it were to continue, I could see a total shutout being within the realm of possibility. A shutout is possible just very unlikely. A total shutout is a 1 in 100 type thing. I guess one example was a strong nino so that raises the probability a bit. I don't expect this exact longwave pattern to continue totally locked in for the entire winter though. That would be almost unheard of. There will be fluxuations where the trough axis will come east even if its just temporary. That's why I think its likely it will snow at least some at some point. But for us to get any significant snow, or a period with several snow events strung together, I think we will need some help from the NAO or AO and not just a shift in the trough axis. Just my own wild guess, our measly sample size on the almost infinite possible permutations of the atmoshphere doesn't offer the full picture, but looking at past Nino patterns that produced significant snow they all had some help from the AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A shutout is possible just very unlikely. It is but I think most of us would consider having a winter without a single warning level event (or maybe 2" event) about as bad as one. I think risk of having no big storms is starting to increase as time moves forward. Everyone and their mom keeps tooting Feb as being the big month. It certainly could be but I'm far from sold on it being a lock. You are in a better climo spot so this might not matter as much but without at least an average cold pattern the cities and CP could struggle pretty bad. As you said, help from the AO/NAO is almost required this year. Especially in the 95 corridor. Last couple years had great cold delivery patterns despite no help from the AO/NAO. Big -EPO patterns aren't common at all in Nino's. I checked them all. There are periods of having a -EPO but Nino climo doesn't favor anything like what we saw the last 2 years. Extremely uncooperative AO/NAO Decembers have proven to be a precursor for a subpar winter far more than not. I don't care about wasting Dec if other things show promise. We have quite the beast going on over the pole again. It's the favorite and flipping is the underdog at this point. If we never get a block going then we go into timing mode with a +pna and 50/50. They can work out of course but timing something during a winter with an overall warm background state almost always equals below climo snowfall. We've had plenty of those winters in the past. It is what it is and time will tell how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It is but I think most of us would consider having a winter without a single warning level event (or maybe 2" event) about as bad as one. I think risk of having no big storms is starting to increase as time moves forward. Everyone and their mom keeps tooting Feb as being the big month. It certainly could be but I'm far from sold on it being a lock. You are in a better climo spot so this might not matter as much but without at least an average cold pattern the cities and CP could struggle pretty bad. As you said, help from the AO/NAO is almost required this year. Especially in the 95 corridor. Last couple years had great cold delivery patterns despite no help from the AO/NAO. Big -EPO patterns aren't common at all in Nino's. I checked them all. There are periods of having a -EPO but Nino climo doesn't favor anything like what we saw the last 2 years. Extremely uncooperative AO/NAO Decembers have proven to be a precursor for a subpar winter far more than not. I don't care about wasting Dec if other things show promise. We have quite the beast going on over the pole again. It's the favorite and flipping is the underdog at this point. If we never get a block going then we go into timing mode with a +pna and 50/50. They can work out of course but timing something during a winter with an overall warm background state almost always equals below climo snowfall. We've had plenty of those winters in the past. It is what it is and time will tell how it shakes out. Feb isn't dead yet...but man it's getting tough to believe in. We are toast, literally through atleast mid-Jan and by then we will know if we are going to get strat help which is almost a must to save Feb. Raining today so we got that going for us...cuts down on the +25F temp anomalies. And we were worried about a 98 type torch, LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 this is a wheelhouse year. last 2 years we tripped and fell into several snowstorms outside of peak climo. seems like this year we'll need peak on our side or it's gonna be a struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Feb isn't dead yet...but man it's getting tough to believe in. We are toast, literally through atleast mid-Jan and by then we will know if we are going to get strat help which is almost a must to save Feb. Raining today so we got that going for us...cuts down on the +25F temp anomalies. And we were worried about a 98 type torch, LOL... No, it's definitely not dead yet. Neither is Jan imho. I'm just pointing out the key fact that Dec is dreadful for a very bad reason. I get a warm and snowless Dec being no reason to cancel winter. But the primary reason why Dec is warm this year is problematic. Past history doesn't paint the brightest future but every winter is unique so definitive calls at any long range are silly. I'm an odds guy mostly and my posts about long range thoughts are always odds based based on my own ideas. Which can be totally wrong too. I'm interested in weeklies tonight. There's a subtle but noticeable difference in the 0z EPS run from last night and D18 from Tuesday's weeklies with the heights in the GOA and off the west coast. The +anom is stronger. Hopefully rolling that forward shows a +pna/-epo quicker than the last weekly run. Hard to say. Not much else "good" to point out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 I may have to play the winterwxluvr role... But... heh. 0z GFS has 0C 850s much of Christmas Day compared to approaching 18C on the Euro. GFS refuses to budge. As of the 12z run, it is holding firm on Christmas Day. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 12z GFS continues the big storm idea around NYE... but this time its an inland runner... rain to maybe some wet snow at the end... ETA: at the very end of teh run... nice "snowstorm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GFS refuses to budge. As of the 12z run, it is holding firm on Christmas Day. Very interesting.Seems probably related to the low the GFS kicks thru the lakes. Euro treats it more like a 'cold' front with no real push behind it. GFS drags in cooler air at least for a time tho this run isn't all that torchy in major torch sense. Euro backed off a bit. Imagine something of a middle ground tho probably favoring euro still. I do wonder if this torch will live up to the hype in the end. Then again that's relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Will take anything colder at this point. -3C line over DC midday Xmas so who knows...at least on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Seems probably related to the low the GFS kicks thru the lakes. Euro treats it more like a 'cold' front with no real push behind it. GFS drags in cooler air at least for a time tho this run isn't all that torchy in major torch sense. Euro backed off a bit. Imagine something of a middle ground tho probably favoring euro still. I do wonder if this torch will live up to the hype in the end. Then again that's relatively speaking. I would agree. Ens mean temps are a good 10 degrees below the op. Which makes sense given timing spread of the fropa. Maybe we get a 68* midnight high followed by rain and dropping temps and cap it off with a cool 50* breezy evening. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 I would agree. Ens mean temps are a good 10 degrees below the op. Which makes sense given timing spread of the fropa. Maybe we get a 68* midnight high followed by rain and dropping temps and cap it off with a cool 50* breezy evening. lol And that is interesting as well because the GEFS heights for Christmas look to be much more in line with the Euro than with GFS op. Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 0z Euro (orange) v 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 12z GFS continues the big storm idea around NYE... but this time its an inland runner... rain to maybe some wet snow at the end... ETA: at the very end of teh run... nice "snowstorm" Are you referring to the 3 day storm around day 10? I will take what the GFS shows around 240 hours. Those tend to work well out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 And that is interesting as well because the GEFS heights for Christmas look to be much more in line with the Euro than with GFS op. Cool stuff.Well we are still outside 7 days so the op outlier could be quite meh. GFS is quite warm Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Are you referring to the 3 day storm around day 10? I will take what the GFS shows around 240 hours. Those tend to work well out here. I do get sense we will start feeling some sort of slight mix up in the pattern ahead whether or not it means snow or cold. There has been advertisement of more southern stream action heading toward Jan and perhaps that's what we are starting to see in runs toward the latter part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GEFS definitely favors a slower fropa and warmer Xmas than the op. ETA: and some really warm days after Xmas. I'm not discounting a quick hitting relatively cool air mass after Xmas but the warm signal after remains quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GEFS definitely favors a slower fropa and warmer Xmas than the op. ETA: and some really warm days after Xmas. I'm not discounting a quick hitting relatively cool air mass after Xmas but the warm signal after remains quite strong. We all know GFS is the JV team.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 We all know GFS is the JV team.... Bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Bait I didn't even get into the stress relief/comedy room at ECMWF where they play loops of GFS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I do get sense we will start feeling some sort of slight mix up in the pattern ahead whether or not it means snow or cold. There has been advertisement of more southern stream action heading toward Jan and perhaps that's what we are starting to see in runs toward the latter part. GEFS keeps dropping cookie crumbs about things changing. At least out west. The majority of members on the 12z run show a ridge poking up through the pac nw late in the run. Ens mean reflects this. We're kinda in no mans land though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 12z GFS continues the big storm idea around NYE... but this time its an inland runner... rain to maybe some wet snow at the end... ETA: at the very end of teh run... nice "snowstorm" I saw that and literally sat here saying "WTF is that?! Totally crazy...and kind of funny. Looks like the damn thing practically comes out of the Caribbean! Curves toward the coast and makes a "landfall" in New England. Well, that's now two fantasy unicorns that the GFS has thrown our way in the past two days. That's gotta be something at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.