mattie g Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wow, good find. Our latest dip lines up pretty well with Bob at day 49. Let's hope the pattern stays the same (as Bob's chart). If it does, we're in business. I generally don't have a lot to add, but it certainly caught my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro has us hovering around 70 both xmas eve and day. Honestly, that sounds good to me. If it's going to be warm and snowless on the holiday let it be really warm so we can open the windows and do whatever outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro has us hovering around 70 both xmas eve and day. Honestly, that sounds good to me. If it's going to be warm and snowless on the holiday let it be really warm so we can open the windows and do whatever outside. Lol for being closer to 90 on Christmas day than 50. 50 would of still been an above average temp day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro has us hovering around 70 both xmas eve and day. Honestly, that sounds good to me. If it's going to be warm and snowless on the holiday let it be really warm so we can open the windows and do whatever outside. does the Euro 384 show a blizzard like GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 it has been consistent with that idea, but the GFS has been consistent with a front going through early on Christmas day and making the day cooler (although certainly not cold). The GFS has been somewhat too progressive in recent weeks, so I tend to think Euro here but not with a ton of confidence. Euro has us hovering around 70 both xmas eve and day. Honestly, that sounds good to me. If it's going to be warm and snowless on the holiday let it be really warm so we can open the windows and do whatever outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 it has been consistent with that idea, but the GFS has been consistent with a front going through early on Christmas day and making the day cooler (although certainly not cold). The GFS has been somewhat too progressive in recent weeks, so I tend to think Euro here but not with a ton of confidence. Yeah, I've been talking about that too. I find that really interesting. Not so much from a weather standpoint, but just from a modeling one. They are night and day on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro has 18-19C 850mb temps on Christmas. SPC sounding page appears to have an error with a spike past 20C in Dec on record. NWS UNR shows 16.2C to be the Dec record. Actually would be a Nov-Mar record it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Yeah, I've been talking about that too. I find that really interesting. Not so much from a weather standpoint, but just from a modeling one. They are night and day on Christmas day. 12 gefs definitely favors the euro op solution. I'm sure the EPS will as well. The funny part will happen if the middle ground between the 2 happens. Middle ground meaning a damp warm (but not exceptionally so) and foggy period with lots of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 So what you are saying is it won't hold for 60 consecutive runs over 15 days? Undoubtedly, but it was nice to see a 1051 hp in southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro has 18-19C 850mb temps on Christmas. SPC sounding page appears to have an error with a spike past 20C in Dec on record. NWS UNR shows 16.2C to be the Dec record. Actually would be a Nov-Mar record it seems. (not in the good way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Sure, a positive 30 dm height anomaly on Christmas morning. That's what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 (not in the good way) USA_TMP_850mb_240.gif Good times. So much for my first CT Christmas in a long while being snowy. Euro Ens update: still mostly meh at 360. Def not as excited as GFS about AK ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Sure, a positive 30 dm height anomaly on Christmas morning. That's what we want. ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png Better than seeing that in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Well 97-98 aside I think a -NAO/AO is particularly critical in Nino years. Nevertheless I think we all agree it's a move in the right direction. Just a matter of what that means. Maybe recency bias, but I have no faith in getting a -NAO, but hopefully we can pull a real -AO later this winter. (not in the good way) USA_TMP_850mb_240.gif GodzillaNino is just showing off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 12 gefs definitely favors the euro op solution. I'm sure the EPS will as well. The funny part will happen if the middle ground between the 2 happens. Middle ground meaning a damp warm (but not exceptionally so) and foggy period with lots of showers. I agree about the GEFS. I expect the GFS to cave soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 18z GFS has the same idea at the end of its run as 12z had.. its just a bit further east and phases a tad too late for us... but its still a decent chance in my book... ofc details will change each run... but GFS had really been pounding the drum for the NYE/New Years time period for some kind of storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 A "decent chance" for a GFS op storm post 300 hours? Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'd rather go for a record warm Christmas at this point since we have the goods to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 A "decent chance" for a GFS op storm post 300 hours? Yoda. Decent chance of a low pressure within 12,450 miles of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Decent chance of a low pressure within 12,450 miles of here.Bold. You sure you want to put that prediction out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A "decent chance" for a GFS op storm post 300 hours? Yoda. It's been there on numerous GFS runs... and what else is there to track or look forward to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro has us hovering around 70 both xmas eve and day. Honestly, that sounds good to me. If it's going to be warm and snowless on the holiday let it be really warm so we can open the windows and do whatever outside.What is there to do outside on Christmas? The forecast for Christmas is just putrid. This isn't Miami. This weather has really made it tough for me to even get into the Christmas spirit. It just feels so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A "decent chance" for a GFS op storm post 300 hours? Yoda. This is what we're reduced to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Bold. You sure you want to put that prediction out there? Someone got the subtle joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What is there to do outside on Christmas? The forecast for Christmas is just putrid. This isn't Miami. This weather has really made it tough for me to even get into the Christmas spirit. It just feels so wrong. Not my preferred Christmas wx of course but better than windy and 50. I'll hike with the dog, throw footballs, and hit the schoolyard and shoot baskets with my son. Maybe put some miles on my bike. Lemonade and stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Not my preferred Christmas wx of course but better than windy and 50. I'll hike with the dog, throw footballs, and hit the schoolyard and shoot baskets with my son. Maybe put some miles on my bike. Lemonade and stuff GFS would be 50 and windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 18z does look 50 and windy on Christmas. Am I reading that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 We couldn't even get our daily 384 hour GFS blizzard until the middle of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I may have to play the winterwxluvr role... But... heh. 0z GFS has 0C 850s much of Christmas Day compared to approaching 18C on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z GFS OP at the very end of its run is developing a large Miller A with lots of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.