Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Scandinavian high signal has been more pronounced of late in LR. Supposedly that's often a key to dislodging the PV. I'm a little confused because a lot of warm winters have a strong signal of high heights around there too. But that's what the long rangers say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bethesda&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=38.9898&lon=-77.1203#.VnGAD0orJhH lol says 118 degrees at national right now. maybe the tin hat group is on to something? I like the 110 HX too. Nice dry heat...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Move that graph to the left by a couple/few weeks and we might be onto something. Look at the graph since mid-August: Late-year 2015 AO.gif Not saying we should make a 1-to-1 (minus a few weeks) comparison, but it's certainly thought-provoking. Wow, good find. Our latest dip lines up pretty well with Bob at day 49. Let's hope the pattern stays the same (as Bob's chart). If it does, we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Still a huge difference between the Euro and GFS by Christmas morning wrt surface weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wow, good find. Our latest dip lines up pretty well with Bob at day 49. Let's hope the pattern stays the same (as Bob's chart). If it does, we're in business. We're going to have to endure another big spike up to +3 or more over the next 15 days and then tail down from there. Total wag but any real flip is 30 days in the future assuming it happens at all. What we need to hope for is the possibility showing up with guidance once we get to the last week of Dec. The strat still looks hostile. Even though there some warming coming up, it doesn't look like it will do the job. That can easily change though. Effective strat warming events aren't the easiest thing to see coming at long ranges. But considering how cold the damn thing is it's going to take more than some warming and elongation. What I'm hoping for is the upcoming warming to elongate and disturb the strat and then a second event during the first half of Jan to finish the job. Isotherm has made some excellent posts about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 We're going to have to endure another big spike up to +3 or more over the next 15 days and then tail down from there. Total wag but any real flip is 30 days in the future assuming it happens at all. What we need to hope for is the possibility showing up with guidance once we get to the last week of Dec. The strat still looks hostile. Even though there some warming coming up, it doesn't look like it will do the job. That can easily change though. Effective strat warming events aren't the easiest thing to see coming at long ranges. But considering how cold the damn thing is it's going to take more than some warming and elongation. What I'm hoping for is the upcoming warming to elongate and disturb the strat and then a second event during the first half of Jan to finish the job. Isotherm has made some excellent posts about this. Would a relocation of the PV help us out? Is that even a feasible scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This thread and the panic room should be merged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Southern stream phased snowstorm for New Year on GFS. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'd trade one of my kids in for the GFS @ 384. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It can't hurt that the GFS is finally showing fantasy blizzards again. It's been at least 2 weeks since that's occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 This thread and the panic room should be merged. Yeah, this added a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Would a relocation of the PV help us out? Is that even a feasible scenario? Sort of but not over the long term. I assume you are talking about the strat PV and not h5. Last year there were multiple bend but don't break events and they seemed to coincide with cold air dumps into the conus. I don't think it was just the -epo doing its work. The timing was too close. Use trop tidbits 10mb plots with both the GFS/GEFS. It's easy to see. The most simpleton way to look at it is this: 1. Big blue symmetrical target = Bad 2. Oranges pushing towards the center and the target getting elongated = semi interesting But what we really want to see is the PV splitting in half and weakening. No sign of that yet although Dr Cohen probably lays awake at night praying it happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'd trade one of my kids in for the GFS @ 384. lol 500mb not the best. Will have to watch closely till it disappears on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'd trade one of my kids in for the GFS @ 384. lol not the one that looks like JI I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 500mb not the best. Will have to watch closely till it disappears on 18z. 6 hours of weenie bliss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 500mb not the best. Will have to watch closely till it disappears on 18z. So what you are saying is it won't hold for 60 consecutive runs over 15 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'd trade one of my kids in for the GFS @ 384. lol Why invest in so much only to trade it in? Be realistic about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Southern stream phased snowstorm for New Year on GFS. Book it. Most of the past GFS runs have had some sort of large storm around the NYE time period... though none of them were as good for us as it is on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wow, 12z gefs shows even more encouraging signs of change...nice shift in heights around ak/goa. Still the +anom to our NE but it's on the move. Scand ridge building strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 That does look nice. Bob. Best map I've seen in awhile. Now let's see if we can pin it in time and start getting closer to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 That does look nice. Bob. Best map I've seen in awhile. Now let's see if we can pin it in time and start getting closer to it! Interestingly, it's fairly similar to the weeklies but a week sooner. Little crumbs getting dropped lately. And agree, even though it's not good for us verbatim it's surely a step in the right direction. Especially up near AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Heh, there's even some weak support for the d15gefsoncrack On a more serious note...the 12z gefs shows much more support for colder air getting here at the end of the month than any ens run I've seen. 6z gefs was mixed overall. 12z definitely stepped more in our favor for the torch taking a break. Hopefully the torch takes a dirtnap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's amazing what a terrible pattern can do for optimism about a less terrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 So what you are saying is it won't hold for 60 consecutive runs over 15 days? No...only the heat signal for Christmas does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's amazing what a terrible pattern can do for optimism about a less terrible pattern. i remember posting about the GFS showing a big christmas bomb about 10 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's amazing what a terrible pattern can do for optimism about a less terrible pattern. Before we get a decent pattern we will have to endure several layers of less terrible patterns. So yes, I'm optimistic seeing signs of the first less terrible pattern that doesn't include the word weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 i remember posting about the GFS showing a big christmas bomb about 10 days ago The return of Santa Bomb. Sequels suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Before we get a decent pattern we will have to endure several layers of less terrible patterns. So yes, I'm optimistic seeing signs of the first less terrible pattern that doesn't include the word weeklies Still raging +NAO tho, not to mention it's still warm heh. Nino flips can happen quick. I don't necessarily think we need to spend a month in transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Still raging +NAO tho, not to mention it's still warm heh. Nino flips can happen quick. I don't necessarily think we need to spend a month in transition. we have had a raging +Nao for the past several winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 we have had a raging +Nao for the past several winters Well 97-98 aside I think a -NAO/AO is particularly critical in Nino years. Nevertheless I think we all agree it's a move in the right direction. Just a matter of what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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