Sparky Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 If only we could get some severe with all of this record warmth. It might make the snowlessness more palatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Still some pretty big differences between GFS and Euro by Christmas day. Not just at the surface. Don't think it means a thing and certainly nothing good, but I always like it when they disagree just to watch and see which one or neither is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 But more importantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 But more importantly. No purples.. an improvement. I love how the models are never wrong when they predict warmth in winter at 360 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 No purples.. an improvement. I love how the models are never wrong when they predict warmth in winter at 360 hours out Actually that's a pretty good signal from the 18z GFS which might mean a pattern change is afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Actually that's a pretty good signal from the 18z GFS which might mean a pattern change is afoot. The GFS at the end of its run always seems to suggest that... but it never really gets there... just keeps on being delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 No purples.. an improvement. I love how the models are never wrong when they predict warmth in winter at 360 hours out Except for 13/14 when every warmup was thwarted or weakened, I'd have to agree. In fact, that was the only winter I can recall storms progged to hit us in the medium range that started drifting north on the models as we got closer in actually came back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Except for 13/14 when every warmup was thwarted or weakened, I'd have to agree. In fact, that was the only winter I can recall storms progged to hit us in the medium range that started drifting north on the models as we got closer in actually came back south. This pattern is pretty fascinating. I know people hate it and yeah I guess it sucks in some fashion but still remarkable either way.. especially if the ~Christmas torch comes to pass as suggested basically across the board. If you're a weather lover you gotta love extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Actually that's a pretty good signal from the 18z GFS which might mean a pattern change is afoot. Am I just dumb? How is that a sign of a pattern change? Please explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Am I just dumb? How is that a sign of a pattern change? Please explain. Mostly the 18z GFS is usually full of **** so if it's showing torch maybe it's almost HECS season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This pattern is pretty fascinating. I know people hate it and yeah I guess it sucks in some fashion but still remarkable either way.. especially if the ~Christmas torch comes to pass as suggested basically across the board. If you're a weather lover you gotta love extremes.Yep, I agree. But I'm stubborn and still believe that the change will occur. And since Decembers ordinarily stink around here, I feel like we've missed nothing so far or even through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 No purples.. an improvement. I love how the models are never wrong when they predict warmth in winter at 360 hours out They tried repeatedly in 02-03 and 10-11 beyond day 10 to change the pattern and go warm and were never right. We just remember it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 As much as I hate warm weather, I am a bit interested to see just how warm we can get on Christmas. I'm going with 72F at BWI and IAD, and 69F at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 there are some real dogs on this list off the Super ensembles, but some decent years too http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif unfortunately, except for 99/00, the other decent ones had Decembers that produced something more than a sunburn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Mostly the 18z GFS is usually full of **** so if it's showing torch maybe it's almost HECS season. the GFS is only full of **** when it's predicting record breaking cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Mitch, the cpc ensembles have been loaded with dogs all month. Pretty disappointing start and not just cuz were breaking record highs up and down the coast every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Chin up people....it'll be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Chin up people....it'll be okThis place is becoming a ghost town. We need a torchmas temperature forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 That GFS Day7 map reminds me of 4/27/11, if only the sun angle didn't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Still significantly AN, but 00z GFS shows less than an outright blowtorch. The few days before? Not so much.. Yeah cause rain keeps surface temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 La la land of tonights 00z GFS shows wintry precip chances on the 29th... but its to our south for now Along with the very end of the run -- hrs 372-384 (yes, I know its rain for most... but wintry precip not that far away) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Some changes starting to show in the LR now. Still a craptastic look but the 12 eps is eroding the deep trough in the west with higher heights starting to poke into the pac nw. Trough axis moves from the west coast into the Intermountain west. In line with what happens week 3 of the weeklies. It's going to be a grind to get out of this mess but it will have to start somewhere. 6z gefs takes on a zonal look but it's more a byproduct of spread with trough/ridge placements. The individual members are divided. EPS is decidedly on favor of the persistent ridge in the east through the end of the month. The short story is we may be seeing signs of change but nothing favorable for returning to normal temps yet. Hopefully the way out continues as we get peeks at the first week of Jan on LR guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Least hostile sun-angle of the year has and will be wasted, and Christmas will more resemble Memorial Day. I hope we keep this pattern until May 1, then let it flip 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Some changes starting to show in the LR now. Still a craptastic look but the 12 eps is eroding the deep trough in the west with higher heights starting to poke into the pac nw. Trough axis moves from the west coast into the Intermountain west. In line with what happens week 3 of the weeklies. It's going to be a grind to get out of this mess but it will have to start somewhere. 6z gefs takes on a zonal look but it's more a byproduct of spread with trough/ridge placements. The individual members are divided. EPS is decidedly on favor of the persistent ridge in the east through the end of the month. The short story is we may be seeing signs of change but nothing favorable for returning to normal temps yet. Hopefully the way out continues as we get peeks at the first week of Jan on LR guidance. The CFS sub monthlies are warm through the 7th but then drop to near normal for the remainder of January which would be a step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 The CFS sub monthlies are warm through the 7th but then drop to near normal for the remainder of January which would be a step forward. I was expecting a patented Wes drive by shooting....haha. It's good to see you and Bob seeing some encouragement in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bethesda&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=38.9898&lon=-77.1203#.VnGAD0orJhH lol says 118 degrees at national right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bethesda&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=38.9898&lon=-77.1203#.VnGAD0orJhH lol says 118 degrees at national right now. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The CFS sub monthlies are warm through the 7th but then drop to near normal for the remainder of January which would be a step forward. #TeamWes #TeamCFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The CFS sub monthlies are warm through the 7th but then drop to near normal for the remainder of January which would be a step forward. It's going to be a lot of steps. I just made a post in the SE thread about the AO. Interestingly, 82-83 was awful hostile until mid Jan. The beginning of Jan would have made me puke knowing what I know now. Good thing I was only a crazy kid calling 936-1212 5 times a day. This is DJF I haven't looked at how Nov fits into the 45-60 day period that seems to be common with anomalous AO regimes (in both directions). And the cases we looked at in years past are mixed with some being all out flips and others being a relax and reload so it's hard to say where we are going there. But it's possible our anomalous period began in Nov. That would support the possibility of a large change any time during Jan with the second half being the most likely. Just gotta sit back and wait it out. And go fishing because lakes are still warm enough for active bass...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's going to be a lot of steps. I just made a post in the SE thread about the AO. Interestingly, 82-83 was awful hostile until mid Jan. The beginning of Jan would have made me puke knowing what I know now. Good thing I was only a crazy kid calling 936-1212 5 times a day. This is DJF 82-83 ao.JPG I haven't looked at how Nov fits into the 45-60 day period that seems to be common with anomalous AO regimes (in both directions). And the cases we looked at in years past are mixed with some being all out flips and others being a relax and reload so it's hard to say where we are going there. But it's possible our anomalous period began in Nov. That would support the possibility of a large change any time during Jan with the second half being the most likely. Just gotta sit back and wait it out. And go fishing because lakes are still warm enough for active bass...haha Move that graph to the left by a couple/few weeks and we might be onto something. Look at the graph since mid-August: Not saying we should make a 1-to-1 (minus a few weeks) comparison, but it's certainly thought-provoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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