yoda Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Once again, GFS hints at wintry potential in the LR... one would think a 1040+ H in perfect position for us would help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 FYI, the European monthlies that came out on 12/8 are now available on their website. These maps are for the J-M period. Temp on top and precip on bottom. Again, it doesn't include specifically our area, but it's close enough to reasonably extrapolate. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2015120100,2904,2016033100&area=South%20America&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2015120100,2904,2016033100&area=South%20America&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Is it possible for two models to be further apart for Christmas Day than the Euro and GFS are? It is 10 days out, so there is that to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Is it possible for two models to be further apart for Christmas Day than the Euro and GFS are? It is 10 days out, so there is that to consider. The progression isn't that much different the GFS is just faster.. and the Euro puts the highest anomalies over our region as opposed to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 lol Euro has +45 over parts of IL Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I've never seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I've never seen this before. i know my december forecast next time we get a severely strong El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 i know my december forecast next time we get a severely strong El Nino torcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 torcher i feel like the more extreme this gets...the bigger than rubber break will be. Sorta of like 89-90 but in reverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 torcher Near 80 degrees in IND on Christmas is pretty damn historic. While this is not snow, this is at least interesting from that perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 The progression isn't that much different the GFS is just faster.. and the Euro puts the highest anomalies over our region as opposed to NE. Not sure about that. If you start at 1 week out, they look pretty much in line. Then they diverge quite a bit. By day 10, seems to me the patterns over NA are quite different. I don't think you can extrapolate the Euro out a day or two and get what the GFS is showing. Of course, both seem to be terrible, so it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 594 dm SE ridge, because 588 wasn't nuclear enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 i feel like the more extreme this gets...the bigger than rubber break will be. Sorta of like 89-90 but in reverse? uh oh, now I'm worried....I was thinking the same thing this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 i feel like the more extreme this gets...the bigger than rubber break will be. Sorta of like 89-90 but in reverse? not be a weenie, but yeah... i like this thinking. epic warmth to epic cold and snow, right? RIGHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I expected a pretty bad December but this is a little overboard. The 2 things that worry me most for long term prospects for a better second half are the total consistency of this pattern and the failure of the last two attempts to break it down. I thought that within this pattern there would at least be some variability and perhaps a fluke storm or two that at least gave snow to the mountains to our west. Not only has this pattern been locked in totally but the last two tries at some kind of pattern shift were totally bullied off by the eastern ridge. Back in late November an EPO drop attempted to shift the trough east for a time but all we could get from that was a few days of seasonal then the torch reloaded. Now this week the SOI drop and the NAO are attempting to shift things a bit but the ability of any cold to penetrate into the east is again being muted to just a day or two of seasonal chill then right back into the furnace. That indicates to me that breaking this down is not going to be easy at all...and that there is a really dominant force locking this in. If that is the nino then perhaps it will shift as it collapses but I am not sold the nino is the driving factor right now. Perhaps the unusual warmth around the nino is muting the SOI response a bit, but the soi is not acting like a record breaking nino right now at all. I would feel much better if we were in a typical nino pattern with a strong STJ and it was just too warm for snow. I think if we get an STJ flare up that lasts long enough it will shift the pattern in our favor as enough storms going to our south will tend to lower heights over the east and allow cold to bleed down from eastern Canada. But without that I am not sure this pattern doesn't just linger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I've never seen this before. I wonder what that map looked like in March 2012. That's my benchmark for crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I wonder what that map looked like in March 2012. That's my benchmark for crazy. yeah that came up on twitter too. i found a couple maps tho perhaps not peak: https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/676852789507694592 plus this: https://twitter.com/MDA_Weather/status/676853944560263169 https://twitter.com/MDA_Weather/status/676852992965025792 12z euro ens mean has +20s for 5 days in a row for us and a huge area around. +15s for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 yeah that came up on twitter too. i found a couple maps tho perhaps not peak: https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/676852789507694592 plus this: https://twitter.com/MDA_Weather/status/676853944560263169 https://twitter.com/MDA_Weather/status/676852992965025792 12z euro ens mean has +20s for 5 days in a row for us and a huge area around. +15s for a week. is there any light at the tunnel on euro eps? day 15 something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 is there any light at the tunnel on euro eps? day 15 something? Weeklies, perhaps, but that's in fantasy land. The EPS is the *gulp* Ridiculously Resilient Ridge over the North East. So no, it looks unmistakably the worst. If this doesn't change in a hurry every forecast that shows negative temperature departure for anyone east of Texas is huge trouble. The model consensus is disturbing through NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 is there any light at the tunnel on euro eps? day 15 something? slightly less torch than mega torch? Scandinavian ridge maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 slightly less torch than mega torch? Scandinavian ridge maybe. Yeah, that's probably just a factor of getting further out in time, but it's still a very strong ridge signal 360 hours out. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I wonder what that map looked like in March 2012. That's my benchmark for crazy. March 2012 was definitely out there crazy. I saved an e-mail from a colleague that showed a record report out of Marquette, MI for March 21, 2012. They had a max/min of 81/52. The max topped the previous record high by an incredible 32 degrees (old record was 49), and even their low temperature for that day topped the previous max record by 3 degrees! The departures from normal were +45/+36/+41 (for max/min/mean). Around here, the cherry trees were in full bloom by St. Pat's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yeah, that's probably just a factor of getting further out in time, but it's still a very strong ridge signal 360 hours out. Wow. Euro ens has looked almost the same at 360 for like 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 slightly less torch than mega torch? Scandinavian ridge maybe. If you toggle hr348 from 12z and 360 from 0z the ridge signal is weaker and cooler 850's push into the far NE. So it's like a hair less awful at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Euro ens has looked almost the same at 360 for like 6 weeks. What's even scarier is they are doing a really good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 If you toggle hr348 from 12z and 360 from 0z the ridge signal is weaker and cooler 850's push into the far NE. So it's like a hair less awful at best.Ahh nice. I always miss the 0z. And yes they have done quite well tho prob partly pattern stability. We do need a southern jet kick in the pants, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This was hr 360 on Dec 8th 7 days later... THAT is a damn good job for LR guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This was hr 360 on Dec 8th d15puke.JPG 7 days later... d7puke.JPG THAT is a damn good job for LR guidance. Long wavelength patterns are more stable and predictable, so it's not entirely surprising. Not very encouraging for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 i feel like the more extreme this gets...the bigger than rubber break will be. Sorta of like 89-90 but in reverse? I still feel the weather owes me for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Nothing goods happening before mid January at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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