December Med/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

Hey, the weeklies even have a solidy -AO by January 7th. Hope reins eternal?

I think you meant -epo right? AO is + door to door but backing down from the peak ever so slowly weeks 3-4. Epo region looks sweet around the 7th and beyond. Move the conus trough axis 700 miles east and take our chances all day long.

[usedtobe]

I think you meant -epo right? AO is + door to door but backing down from the peak ever so slowly weeks 3-4. Epo region looks sweet around the 7th and beyond. Move the conus trough axis 700 miles east and take our chances all day long.

I'm still not excited by the pattern even with the week 4 height rises towards BC.   That would be a better pattern but I hear people talking of the polar vortex splitting and I look at the stratosphere at the end of the Euro and GEFS ens mean runs and see a raging, cold vortex. 

[Bob Chill]

I'm still not excited by the pattern even with the week 4 height rises towards BC. That would be a better pattern but I hear people talking of the polar vortex splitting and I look at the stratosphere at the end of the Euro and GEFS ens mean runs and see a raging, cold vortex.

Besides a brief elongation and a little warming pushing it around a little, I see no signs of help from the strat either. The only bright spots I'm seeing (and pointing out) are ones that don't have zero chances of any snow like we are seeing now. I'd take a clipper on the heels of progressive trough in Jan to get on the board and smile just to remember what snow looks like. Lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

Any improvement is a good thing. A little every day.

[Bob Chill]

Remember, it was a clipper that got the party started last season.

It was a crawl walk run type of thing last year too. Feb felt like a rubber band snap in some ways but it took a good while to shake the Dec pattern. At least Jan did put some numbers up before SNE got destroyed while we laughed and cried in futility.

Some winters do turn on a dime though. My money is on that not happening again this year. It will likely be a grueling process. And we probably watch it start up north first before we get our chances. Well, unless we get some magical -nao to suddenly park itself. Not sure how that happens though. Heck, I barely remember what that looks like.

[mappy]

Haha, I thought of reminding everyone how awful life was after that clipper, but thought better of it. Folks just have to hang on. As bad as this month has been, we have long way to go. A pattern this bad doesn't just turn immediately. Let's kill that awful configuration in the west first and go from there.

Atta boy, talk those jumpers away from the ledge

[WinterWxLuvr]

Atta boy, talk those jumpers away from the ledge

I say shove em off.

[mitchnick]

I say shove em off.

Aye, aye Cpt. Crunch

[Ian]

Problem with this year is we can shift from the crappiest pattern ever to full on cold rain bonanza. Comparing to last year is only useful to a (small) point.

[mitchnick]

If right, this would give us a reasonable chance.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif

[Ian]

If right, this would give us a reasonable chance.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif

Why would it collapse that fast? Don't these models overdo this stuff all the time trend wise?

[mitchnick]

Why would it collapse that fast? Don't these models overdo this stuff all the time trend wise?

I hope you're not asking me my professional opinion! Lol

Idk if it would or wouldn't. But the CFS2 has had a decent record with this Niño, so I wouldn't disregard it totally. You can see on this Tropical Tidbits product that all areas have been collapsing nicely in the past week regardless of the accuracy of the absolute numbers.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

[PhineasC]

February is still a long way away. Winter around here can become legendary in a 3 week stretch Feb into Mar. I would like to start seeing signs of change in early January. Assuming the pattern change is rushed as usual, that would put us into late January into February, right on schedule.

[yoda]

18z GFS hinted at a chance at the end of its run for some wintry stuff

[Ian]

I hope you're not asking me my professional opinion! Lol

Idk if it would or wouldn't. But the CFS2 has had a decent record with this Niño, so I wouldn't disregard it totally. You can see on this Tropical Tidbits product that all areas have been collapsing nicely in the past week regardless of the accuracy of the absolute numbers.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

Well honestly I don't really know myself.. I have historically not been all that into long range stuff. Nino/Nina has always been interesting though so tracking one of the strongest on record has helped catapult me into being more interested in seasonal forecasting.. plus I was working my way up from mastering nowcasting, etc.

 

Just seems like a really rapid drop in the near term compared to other strong ninos at this time of year. Graphical forecasts I've seen don't seem nearly that quick either.

[famartin]

Funny...because I'm ready to kick in the nuts the next person who claims that sunny 70 with low humidity and no bugs is somehow "disgusting."

 

Well, today wasn't low humidity... then again, I'm comparing it to Nevada standards

[PDIII]

These chilly mornings after a cold front moves through are just brutal

[mitchnick]

Well honestly I don't really know myself.. I have historically not been all that into long range stuff. Nino/Nina has always been interesting though so tracking one of the strongest on record has helped catapult me into being more interested in seasonal forecasting.. plus I was working my way up from mastering nowcasting, etc.

Just seems like a really rapid drop in the near term compared to other strong ninos at this time of year. Graphical forecasts I've seen don't seem nearly that quick either.

Going back to your previous post, there's a lot here to suggest that the cooling should continue steadily.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[nw baltimore wx]

These chilly mornings after a cold front moves through are just brutal

On my way to work this morning, Ava Marie was trying her best when she said, "The cold front has cleared the coast and temperatures today will struggle to reach 59."

Of course, at that time it was 63.

But I'm all in for the end of the 6z gfs run with a snowstorm on New Year's Day.

[Ji]

On my way to work this morning, Ava Marie was trying her best when she said, "The cold front has cleared the coast and temperatures today will struggle to reach 59."

Of course, at that time it was 63.

But I'm all in for the end of the 6z gfs run with a snowstorm on New Year's Day.

a few days ago, the GFS shows a christmas bomb/snow for us.....just sayin

[nw baltimore wx]

a few days ago, the GFS shows a christmas bomb/snow for us.....just sayin

Yeah, but that was an 18z run. That's never right. The 6z will be money.

[Bob Chill]

a few days ago, the GFS shows a christmas bomb/snow for us.....just sayin

 

I'm bracing myself for the prolific meltdown posts coming over the next 30 days. 

[Bob Chill]

My official Christmas forecast is warm or rainy or both

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Taking a half-full glass perspective, at least there's some uncertainty to the sharpness and axis of the trough. Maybe it means some positive changes are coming in the new year.

[nflwxman]

I'm bracing myself for the prolific meltdown posts coming over the next 30 days. 

 

I suspect we will at least be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel by the 1st week of January (on the modeling, not sensible weather).  That should reel people right back in.

[usedtobe]

I looked at the Euro weekly ens means and they show the EPO going negative but the AO still positive on the 15th.   They also have the 850 temps above normal until the 15th. If the negative EP has any legs that would be a step in the right direction.   The analogs for the 15-20 and 15-30 day periods based are for above normal temps. Of course just roll forward from the 11-15 day ensemble forecast. 

[Bob Chill]

I suspect we will at least be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel by the 1st week of January (on the modeling, not sensible weather).  That should reel people right back in.

 

 

Hopefully. This Dec has shades of a group of years that don't instill a lot of confidence. No perfect matches of course but Dec 82, 01, 06, and even years like 07 come to mind. 82-83 has been tossed around quite a bit of course. And that ended up a winner. Ian had some great posts in the winter thread already about the stubborn ridge to our north. It's been there for months. Pulling the composite from the beginning of met Autumn is pretty stark:

 

 

 

And so far in Dec can't be more prominent:

 

 

 

 

As long as that damn thing hangs around we're in trouble. Weeks 3-4 of the weeklies do push that height anomaly NE through time and it's basically completely gone by the end of the run. In some respects the weeklies show Jan progressing similar to 83 so that is good. The height pattern in the west is different but a pretty close match around the north atl and polar regions. 

 

First half of Jan 83

 

 

 

The second half of Jan 83

 

 

The +AO breaks down during this period. That was key for Feb to do what it did. Had that been delayed then the Feb outcome probably wouldn't have been so good and/or lucky. 

 

Many people are calling for the +AO to break down during Jan. I have zero reason to doubt it but also have no reason to buy it until it's actually happening. One of my fears is due to the strength of the PV this year that the breakdown may be delayed into Feb or even worse, not happen at all. Both outcomes would really stack the deck against a meaningful comeback. 

 

Let's hope we're discussing the +AO breakdown showing up on the models as we close the month and enter Jan. 

[nflwxman]

Hopefully. This Dec has shades of a group of years that don't instill a lot of confidence. No perfect matches of course but Dec 82, 01, 06, and even years like 07 come to mind. 82-83 has been tossed around quite a bit of course. And that ended up a winner. Ian had some great posts in the winter thread already about the stubborn ridge to our north. It's been there for months. Pulling the composite from the beginning of met Autumn is pretty stark:

 

ridge.JPG

 

 

And so far in Dec can't be more prominent:

 

 

ridge2.JPG

 

 

As long as that damn thing hangs around we're in trouble. Weeks 3-4 of the weeklies do push that height anomaly NE through time and it's basically completely gone by the end of the run. In some respects the weeklies show Jan progressing similar to 83 so that is good. The height pattern in the west is different but a pretty close match around the north atl and polar regions. 

 

First half of Jan 83

 

jan83.JPG

 

 

The second half of Jan 83

 

jan832.JPG

 

The +AO breaks down during this period. That was key for Feb to do what it did. Had that been delayed then the Feb outcome probably wouldn't have been so good and/or lucky. 

 

Many people are calling for the +AO to break down during Jan. I have zero reason to doubt it but also have no reason to buy it until it's actually happening. One of my fears is due to the strength of the PV this year that the breakdown may be delayed into Feb or even worse, not happen at all. Both outcomes would really stack the deck against a meaningful comeback. 

 

Let's hope we're discussing the +AO breakdown showing up on the models as we close the month and enter Jan. 

 

Yeah, the ridge begins to slowly pull northwest as the southern jet strengthens in pretty much all the weekly and monthly models. That's not surprising given the elongation of the 500mb pattern from the El Nino beginning to collapse (and follows most sensible analogs).  

 

As you mention, the obvious wildcard is the stratospheric behavior and resulting AO index.  That will probably decide the fate of late Jan-Early March. I'm still convinced that the weeklies/months have very little skill at this range with the AO, so I don't take it seriously until 15 or so days out.  Hell, even a transient -AO during the beginning of January could do some damage and provide a good timing event during a nino year.

 

Believe it or not, the strength of nino gives me hope for a decent winter recovery.  This was a pretty late bloomer.  Patterns can flip in a hurry with a Nino collapsing of this power (think opposite of 1997-1998).  If this type of ridge was showing up in a La Nina/ENSO neutral pattern, I might be writing off all of January already.

[Ian]

I think the anomalous heights over the lakes will shift just not sure where or how far. They have been so persistent I wouldn't guarantee it either. Jan might be a transitional month but I think the writing is already starting to show up that it will be AN locally tempwise. Maybe not a ton. Even the flip for Feb Nino winters are mostly not the best.. so perhaps it's time to just hug 82-83 straight up. ONI over 2 at peak is kind of a death knell for winter in the NE historically. 

[Bob Chill]

Yeah, the ridge begins to slowly pull northwest as the southern jet strengthens in pretty much all the weekly and monthly models. That's not surprising given the elongation of the 500mb pattern from the El Nino beginning to collapse (and follows most sensible analogs).  

 

As you mention, the obvious wildcard is the stratospheric behavior and resulting AO index.  That will probably decide the fate of late Jan-Early March. I'm still convinced that the weeklies/months have very little skill at this range with the AO, so I don't take it seriously until 15 or so days out.  Hell, even a transient -AO during the beginning of January could do some damage and provide a good timing event during a nino year.

 

Believe it or not, the strength of nino gives me hope for a decent winter recovery.  This was a pretty late bloomer.  Patterns can flip in a hurry with a Nino collapsing of this power (think opposite of 1997-1998).  If this type of ridge was showing up in a La Nina/ENSO neutral pattern, I might be writing off all of January already.

 

Thankfully I'm patient and I didn't go into this winter super optimistic or anything. And since the beginning of Dec I've toned down my expectations even more. The only thing that would really get on my nerves is to get skunked on having to use my shovel at least once. 11-12 & 12-13 got to me. I'll admit it. The Mar 13 debacle may have actually been physically painful...lol

 

I tend to focus mainly on what's in front of me for the next 2 weeks and definitely don't treat the weeklies as gospel. They jump around as much as any other long range tool. I'm hoping the strat doesn't go back to the big blue target after the push it gets over the next 10 days. Ens like the idea of restrengthening for the most part but the 6z gefs mean showed the warming @ 10mb over Siberia to hang on through the end of the run. It's a weak signal for sure but at least different than a symmetrical blue ball of hell. It's going to take a lot of hits to break that thing down and until it weakens we aren't flipping the AO. But as you said, a transient blocking event can produce. 

 

I think the anomalous heights over the lakes will shift just not sure where or how far. They have been so persistent I wouldn't guarantee it either. Jan might be a transitional month but I think the writing is already starting to show up that it will be AN locally tempwise. Maybe not a ton. Even the flip for Feb Nino winters are mostly not the best.. so perhaps it's time to just hug 82-83 straight up. ONI over 2 at peak is kind of a death knell for winter in the NE historically. 

 

I'm totally fine with an AN Jan on the means. Especially if it's AN because big departure are put up early but things become more wintry later. It's a tough year for analogs. There are some higher prob features due enso really exerting itself. The smaller but very important details are much more tricky. I'll just watch and wait because there's nothing else to do. Well, except work on the tan and mow the lawn.