snowman19 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Strong Ninos have mostly sucked in March in DC.I looked at that a month ago but yea, March in strong/very strong (super) Ninos suck. If you are going to get it done, February is the month for wintry weather. Also, the agreement among the models' ensembles for the upcoming blowtorch the rest of the month is just astounding. I don't remember such crazy good agreement for a big blowtorch, maybe March 2012 had it I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Maybe not but of the strongest peaks 10 out of 12 were crappy in March. Part of me wonders if we're still just lagging... this Nino seems to have peaked on the later side of the strong ones. But overall it's still doing what they do just not necessarily in all the typical places per se. I've tended to think this is a Feb winter all along but I wouldn't even bet much on that at this point. I'm still sticking with my original thoughts of 1/15 and later. The NINO has peaked, and it started the beginning of this month. That's good for us. Of course, it's so warm that it may not be good enough, but only time will tell. I like these maps because the .5C intervals can pretty easily be differentiated. Oldest on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 For those on the edge fearing the CFS, if you click on the monthly forecast for January (US T2m Anomaly) starting on the 1st of December, then say the 8th, then today, you can see that the CFS is coming in cooler. Today's number is probably around +1.5C (I smoothed it based on the location of the +.5C and the +2C boundaries so it isn't perfect.) Anyway, January average temp at BWI is 32.9 and Feb is 35.8. A +1.5C temp departure for January at BWI would result in an average temp of +2.7F, or 35.6, a hair below Feb's average temp. Soooo, that would work for snow since it works in Feb. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yeah, I think it's the intensity and how sustained it has been (and will continue to be given the latest guidance). It's not just a few extreme days skewing the overall mean. I wouldn't say that last winter was so much "long and legit", it was more back-loaded. December was pretty warm and blah, January was near normal, then of course we had an extremely cold February. We had one decent clipper in early January last winter, then nothing until that amazing period in February to early March. In 2013-14, that was definitely wall-to-wall winter, cold throughout pretty much, and sustained (not to mention quite snowy). December 2013 ended up a bit warmer than normal but mostly due to several very warm days right before Christmas; early that month had some pretty cold days. i think last winter was pretty long. maybe not legit the whole time, but we had very little warmups in november and december that i recall even though it may not have been that cold until jan/feb. to me, the last 2 winters felt like they were 4-5 months long in that there just weren't many breaks. it was average/cold with a brief warmup, then back to average/cold. this year it's average/warm with a brief cooldown, then back to average/warm. i'm generalizing, but it seems like that's the difference so far and i have a feeling it may be that way for a while. sometimes winters just don't want to be cold around here. i expected that because it's rare we get 3 good winters in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 So, when December is Frigid, we fear the January pattern reversal a la 1989-90 and 2005-06. But, no such talk the other way around when we are setting records for warmth? In the 2005 example which wasn't that long ago all of the modeling was in near unanimous agreement we would stay well below normal until the last week of the month when the pattern abruptly flipped and we stayed mild from that point basically through the heart of winter. I get the feeling this year will be the same in the reverse, with the obvious question being does any flip happen by new year or so much later it becomes mostly irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 12z GFS is a little better for Christmas and on, actually rather seasonable. Suprising, Christmas Eve is still a torch though and I doubt ensembles will look that okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 If it consoles anybody, the latest GFS isn't a furnace for Christmas Day. 11 day GFS? I was hoping for the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 11 day GFS? I was hoping for the opposite.12z GFS Ensembles are still torch through the whole run, mean around 60 Christmas Day. Might be a tad cooler than the last runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I doubt ensembles will look that okay. They don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 +16 to +20 on Christmas. Yes. Bring it. I'll open up the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Record highs for Christmas are 72 at BWI and DCA and 71 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Record highs for Christmas are 72 at BWI and DCA and 71 at IAD. shiiiit, BWI just set a record yesterday with 72. WE CAN DO IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Record highs for Christmas are 72 at BWI and DCA and 71 at IAD. I asked Santa for the warmest winter ever. Proof Santa is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 11 day GFS? I was hoping for the opposite. That's true Yeoman. I was just pointing out the volatility of a forecast that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 That's true Yeoman. I was just pointing out the volatility of a forecast that far out. A front behind any warm rainstorm could bring in cooler air any day during the last week of the month. Timing is impossible to know. With near certainty it seems the last week of the month will be above to well above normal on the means but I agree that it's certainly not a lock that any specific day of that week will be massively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yje good news is that in a couple of weeks this horrible month will be over this is more scary than Halloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 A front behind any warm rainstorm could bring in cooler air any day during the last week of the month. Timing is impossible to know. With near certainty it seems the last week of the month will be above to well above normal on the means but I agree that it's certainly not a lock that any specific day of that week will be massively warm. Looks like the Euro is a bit faster with the front around Christmas as well, though it's hard to tell from the graphics I have. I suppose the mere fact that something is happening faster than advertised is good news to me..........the faster we can get things moving, maybe the faster we can get to a better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 rubber band has to snap. Still think its good that this is happening now and not during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Record highs for Christmas are 72 at BWI and DCA and 71 at IAD. What are the years (I am not able to look! Sorry!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What are the years (I am not able to look! Sorry!) 1964 for BWI and DCA. 1982* for IAD. * 82-83 analog!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Heh, new weeklies are far better than I thought. Better being relative of course because it's still not good. However, week 3 features a fairly quick transition from perpetual GOA and nw Canada troughing to a ridge over top of low heights in the SW. Would be split flow verbatim but not good for us with no blocking and persistent + heights above us. Week 4 is a quick transition to prominent ridging in the epo region. Far far different than what we have now. But the lowest heights in the conus are still to far west for us. Not blast furnace look but not a snowstorm look either. Considering how awful this month has been I think most would welcome the direction things go on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 18z gfs would probably mean some flurries/ss for some Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hey, the weeklies even have a solidy -AO by January 7th. Hope reins eternal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Update today from AER AO Blog (Cohen)- With the usual ifs and buts and caveats and outs: Longer-term we continue to believe that the strength and duration of the vertical atmospheric energy transfer will in large part determine AO variability and temperature patterns across the continental mid-latitudes. In the near term a strong pulse of energy transfer predicted for next week, will start to weaken the polar vortex. However, it will also force the surface AO positive and help reinforce the mild temperatures in place. We anticipate further energy pulses that if are of sufficient amplitude and duration will eventually significantly weaken the polar vortex, reverse the positive AO and lead to colder temperatures for the mid-latitude continents. However, if anticipated strong energy pulses do not materialize, there is little reason to anticipate a change in the overall mild pattern. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Weeklies are iffy IMO. No sig changes till late.. even there it leaves something to be desired. I guess it is a step in the right direction with some AK ridging and shutting down the uber torch etc. But that's all like Jan 7-10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Weeklies are iffy IMO. No sig changes till late.. even there it leaves something to be desired. I guess it is a step in the right direction with some AK ridging and shutting down the uber torch etc. But that's all like Jan 7-10 and beyond. We just cant know. Sun angle starts to become a concern by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 We just cant know. Sun angle starts to become a concern by then. I'm not even sure if the euro weeklies are any good that far out heh. Seems they have been this winter but there hasn't been anything to track so may be part of it. The atlantic still looks pretty putrid either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I'm not even sure if the euro weeklies are any good that far out heh. Seems they have been this winter but there hasn't been anything to track so may be part of it. The atlantic still looks pretty putrid either way. I'm not punting winter or being pessimistic, but we have been pretty fortunate to get so much help from the the Pacific the past 2 winters, and I really don't expect the AO to cooperate much this winter. A meaningful -NAO during winter seems to be extinct for one reason or another. Law of averages or pattern persistence or whatever, but we are probably unlikely to be under the bubble of blue in any sustained way this winter, IMO. We still could get a big fluke storm or something within a transient cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I'm not even sure if the euro weeklies are any good that far out heh. Seems they have been this winter but there hasn't been anything to track so may be part of it. The atlantic still looks pretty putrid either way. The one thing that I was surprised by was how quickly in week 3 the basically continuous trough in the west from the Arctic circle to the tropic of cancer was dissected by AN heights and weak ridge signal in the goa/British Columbia. All else ignored, that is a good sign of change in the not too distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The one thing that I was surprised by was how quickly in week 3 the basically continuous trough in the west from the Arctic circle to the tropic of cancer was dissected by AN heights and weak ridge signal in the goa/British Columbia. All else ignored, that is a good sign of change in the not too distant future. The CFS might make more sense with the trough just migrating west but there are some similarities as far as changes between weeks 3/4 of CFS and weeklies. If we saw this the first week of Jan it could be promising down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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