Heisy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Could we see a Christmas Day with temps in the 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Unreal..Getting close to the point where you gotta root for it to continue. Imagine a winter with SNE getting 0-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Getting close to the point where you gotta root for it to continue. Imagine a winter with SNE getting 0-5". If it were any other month in winter I'd do it.. xmas with this weather is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The 0z GFS has temperatures approaching 70F for MONTREAL on Christmas morning. Absolutely stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 6z GFS wow.......The year without a winter? My god it is like a late April early May pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 6z GFS wow.......The year without a winter? My god it is like a late April early May pattern so, storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I am to the point where I am going to punch the next person who tells me how happy they are that it's 70 in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The GEFS ens mean shows a 500 pattern that still is a warm one through the end of the run. For snow, December looks to be lost. The 384 hour ensembles also still show the stratospheric polar vortex stronger and colder than normal. If that holds through the 1st two weeks of January, the winter forecasts that were going for a colder than normal winter will be in deep trouble as December has torched so badly even with a cold late Jan and Feb it would be hard to get bacck below normal. Oh I'm ready to be punched, If it's not going to snow, give me 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I am to the point where I am going to punch the next person who tells me how happy they are that it's 70 in December. Good disco, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just anecdotally, I've never seen +15-20 degree departures on an ensemble mean 10+ days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just anecdotally, I've never seen +15-20 degree departures on an ensemble mean 10+ days out.... Yeah, I was going to say. It's pretty much the most undeniable signal I've ever seen. There is absolutely no disagreement in guidance until the end of December. The easiest 2 week forecast of all time during winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Maybe we will get some CAD or something to cut the heat. Maybe Dec will come in warmer than Nov. That would be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yeah, I was going to say. It's pretty much the most undeniable signal I've ever seen. There is absolutely no disagreement in guidance until the end of December. The easiest 2 week forecast of all time during winter? It's pretty remarkable how tight ens guidance is for d10-15. There's virtually no spread considering the range. The only thing that can offset the eastern ridge is hp underneath it to our N-NE. Would still be AN but not insane like it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's pretty remarkable how tight ens guidance is for d10-15. There's virtually spread considering the range. The only thing that can offset the eastern ridge is hp underneath it to our N-NE. Would still be AN but not insane like it looks right now. I don't ever recall periods of warmth like this in a winter month. I know 12 and 13 had periods of warmth but nothing like this. Down here I have to run the AC, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I am to the point where I am going to punch the next person who tells me how happy they are that it's 70 in December. Funny...because I'm ready to kick in the nuts the next person who claims that sunny 70 with low humidity and no bugs is somehow "disgusting." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's pretty remarkable how tight ens guidance is for d10-15. There's virtually no spread considering the range. The only thing that can offset the eastern ridge is hp underneath it to our N-NE. Would still be AN but not insane like it looks right now. Looks pretty much like the guidance did for the period we are in now except the guidance is even a tad tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Looks pretty much like the guidance did for the period we are in now except the guidance is even a tad tighter. I can't remember the last time I saw this little spread through 15 days for the AO. Unfortunately the complete agreement and anomalous event is the exact opposite of what we hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I can't remember the last time I saw this little spread through 15 days for the AO. Unfortunately the complete agreement and anomalous event is the exact opposite of what we hope for. wow.JPG Didn't you look at those really anomalous AO value events and find that they tended to be hard to break down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 SAI will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Didn't you look at those really anomalous AO value events and find that they tended to be hard to break down? I posted a snip off the spread sheet a couple days ago. Here it is again. Dec +1 or more doesn't have good company for snow lovers. This month should easily top +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I can't remember the last time I saw this little spread through 15 days for the AO. Unfortunately the complete agreement and anomalous event is the exact opposite of what we hope for. wow.JPG It's pretty amazing that the AO was negative for as long as it was, then decided to go massively positive just in time for the period when we really "need" it. 01507 -1.108 201508 -0.689 201509 -0.165 201510 -0.250 201511 1.945 November. Congrats, polar bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 I posted a snip off the spread sheet a couple days ago. Here it is again. Dec +1 or more doesn't have good company for snow lovers. This month should easily top +1. +aodec.JPG In 12/15, January averaged positive, 80% In 7/15, so did February, 47%. For those going with a backloaded winter that will save us, it may very well. However, from this data, I'd have to say that the odds aren't in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 In 12/15, January averaged positive, 80% In 7/15, so did February, 47%. For those going with a backloaded winter that will save us, it may very well. However, from this data, I'd have to say that the odds aren't in our favor. Strong Ninos have mostly sucked in March in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 given the last 2 winters were pretty long and legit, i'm not that surprised that we're making it up by having a warm december, though i guess what's got everyone frazzled is the intensity of it. this region seems to be hit or miss when it comes to winter. it's really always been that way. while i'm not a fan of global warming i'd be lying if i said this weather isn't a lot more comfortable to walk around in then sub-freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Strong Ninos have mostly sucked in March in DC. So scratch March off the list too. However, there is the good news that we have done well the past two winters with no help from the AO or NAO, so I don't think those stats rule out a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Strong Ninos have mostly sucked in March in DC. I'm not sure if this year will follow any of the prior analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 So scratch March off the list too. However, there is the good news that we have done well the past two winters with no help from the AO or NAO, so I don't think those stats rule out a good winter. In the long run though that won't continue. The SSTs in the NATL have been crazy unfavorable the last few winters which is why I think the NAO has mostly sucked. The fact we are headed into the colder AMO likely won't help either, although the odds this next cold AMO will be as putrid for the NAO as the last one from the 70s and 80s was is unlikely. The prior cold AMO phase in the 30s or 40s also saw a mostly positive NAO but it wasn't as horrid as the one after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 If it consoles anybody, the latest GFS isn't a furnace for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 given the last 2 winters were pretty long and legit, i'm not that surprised that we're making it up by having a warm december, though i guess what's got everyone frazzled is the intensity of it. this region seems to be hit or miss when it comes to winter. it's really always been that way. while i'm not a fan of global warming i'd be lying if i said this weather isn't a lot more comfortable to walk around in then sub-freezing temps. Yeah, I think it's the intensity and how sustained it has been (and will continue to be given the latest guidance). It's not just a few extreme days skewing the overall mean. I wouldn't say that last winter was so much "long and legit", it was more back-loaded. December was pretty warm and blah, January was near normal, then of course we had an extremely cold February. We had one decent clipper in early January last winter, then nothing until that amazing period in February to early March. In 2013-14, that was definitely wall-to-wall winter, cold throughout pretty much, and sustained (not to mention quite snowy). December 2013 ended up a bit warmer than normal but mostly due to several very warm days right before Christmas; early that month had some pretty cold days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I'm not sure if this year will follow any of the prior analogs. Maybe not but of the strongest peaks 10 out of 12 were crappy in March. Part of me wonders if we're still just lagging... this Nino seems to have peaked on the later side of the strong ones. But overall it's still doing what they do just not necessarily in all the typical places per se. I've tended to think this is a Feb winter all along but I wouldn't even bet much on that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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