BristowWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 More importantly, the ensembles are hideous. Outside of a cool down next weekend, we are downright torching. This is a pretty epic warmth pattern for the time of year. 48.2 avg temp at DCA 6.1 above normal Every day with a positive departure I am searching for a suitable cliff to jump from...maybe Great Falls...at least next to weekend looks seasonal...right now at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 As God is my witness, my tulip poplar has buds. I am sick to my stomach - disastrous - that tree is apparently gorgeous in the spring and I am afraid that ain't happening this year (just moved here in July - have yet to see a spring here) Sent from my iPhone It'll be fine. Not the first time trees here have had to deal with Torchmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 A majority of trees are largely governed by light. Some like the autumn flowering cherry not as much. I know the research says that... but I have often wondered. If light matters so much and temps matter so little... why do the higher elevations change color first? Research also indicates that many temperate zone plants require a certain period of cold weather after they go into dormancy before they will break it. That probably plays a bigger role in preventing most plants from breaking dormancy now. Obviously, not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Euro ens looks like poo thru the run. (things that aren't shocking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I know the research says that... but I have often wondered. If light matters so much and temps matter so little... why do the higher elevations change color first? Research also indicates that many temperate zone plants require a certain period of cold weather after they go into dormancy before they will break it. That probably plays a bigger role in preventing most plants from breaking dormancy now. Obviously, not all. Well I think temperature matters on the margins at least. Even with higher elevations going first it's not that huge of a difference in a larger sense. Hadn't read that on the cold season.. that also makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Well I think temperature matters on the margins at least. Even with higher elevations going first it's not that huge of a difference in a larger sense. Hadn't read that on the cold season.. that also makes sense. It was interesting, when I visited Spruce Knob on October 7th, Red Oaks on the summit were colored and rapidly losing leaves, while here (same light conditions) the trees were still green. Obviously, its much colder on the summit. I kinda think its more along the lines that the shortening daylight tells the tree that it can shed foliage, while the temperature is more of a factor in exactly when it sheds. For example, you aren't going to see trees start to go dormant in a chilly June. This likely also has some genetic factors, since it probably is warmer when trees start to shed in Florida versus Vermont. This is probably at least part of why some Red Maple cultivars keep their leaves much later than the native Red Maples around here. Its interesting also how more vigorous shoots, especially sprouts from a tree that has been cut back pretty hard, will stay green notably longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Euro ens looks like poo thru the run. (things that aren't shocking)I can think of some better adjectives than poo...worst run yet.Unless we get persistent clouds or cad or unmodeled cold beyond next weekend we stand a really good chance at a #1 warm Dec. Not just us either. A whole lot of cities in the eastern 3rd of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Still in the heat locker at hr 384 on GFS. Not even fantasy winter. Impressed and horrified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It's been an incredibly persistent period of warmth going back to last month. It'd be hard to draw up a better pattern for no snow and big warmth in the east than the one we're staring at. Our next run at warmth might be just as impressive if not more so than this one in terms of departures. 60+ on Christmas? Upper 50s to close the year? Brutal. Which tells me the rubber band will snap after December, or maybe even melt. Either way, the pattern can't last much more than 75 days and it started in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 December 1st, 2014 - Bay water temperature at Thomas Point Lighthouse (mid-bay) - 40 degrees December 1st, 2015 - Bay water temperature at Thomas Point Lighthouse (mid-bay) - 54 degrees Current TPL water temp right now - 51.4 degrees. I am guessing I won't be playing any ice golf this year on the river! That is a pretty big swing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Finally, we look to have peaked. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Finally, we look to have peaked. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html Would be nice to see Nino 1+2 drop similar. It's kind of holding on pretty well, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Would be nice to see Nino 1+2 drop similar. It's kind of holding on pretty well, unfortunately. I "think" that is to come shortly. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don't worry guys https://twitter.com/conweather/status/676151604681310208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This is amazing. Forget the US, check out Canada! (caution, 288 hr GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 There it is, the West Coast 2014 ridge of doom. Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don't worry guys https://twitter.com/conweather/status/676151604681310208 Haha, I support that line of mysterious origins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don't worry guys https://twitter.com/conweather/status/676151604681310208 that guy's trying to con us I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This is amazing. Forget the US, check out Canada! (caution, 288 hr GFS) USA_SNODI_sfc_288.gif Kayaking on Hudson Bay for New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 -50 on the map tonight http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don't worry guys https://twitter.com/conweather/status/676151604681310208 Lol seriously. What does that graph even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Don't worry guys https://twitter.com/conweather/status/676151604681310208 I didn't know there was a Bering Sea Rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I didn't know there was a Bering Sea Rule Yeah supposedly you can copy/paste a storm from there onto the midwest/EC and get a forecast for 2 weeks from now.. or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I love drinking Beer and mowing grass in the middle of December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I could get used to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I could get used to this. Whether we want to or not...we all will over the next 2+ weeks. Next weekend might even get on my nerves a little. I'm getting used to low utility bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The 18z gfs op is bonkers. Strongest Dec heat ridge ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Gotta save some of these maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I'm getting used to low utility bills. Unfortunately running the AC doesn't lower my utility bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Gotta save some of these maps Unreal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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