CAPE Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 This is kind of exciting...I am actually starting to root for a complete shutout. Probably wont happen, but its hard to imagine it looking much worse presently. Yeah everyone thought December would suck, but given how completely wrong the pattern is now, and recent persistence(esp on the Pacific side where things have completely flipped to hostile from previous winters), and the stable state of the stratospheric PV, there is actually a chance at complete futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 This is kind of exciting...I am actually starting to root for a complete shutout. Probably wont happen, but its hard to imagine it looking much worse presently. Yeah everyone thought December would suck, but given how completely wrong the pattern is now, and recent persistence(esp on the Pacific side where things have completely flipped to hostile from previous winters), and the stable state of the stratospheric PV, there is actually a chance at complete futility.I can't (and don't) believe that the seasonal guidance outside of the CFS2 for January-March could be so wrong, especially in light of their consistency. Moreover, it wouldn't take much of a change in the placement of the 5H trough south of AK for the CFS2 to look like the other seasonal models. We just have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 What's his twitter profile? Can you link it? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I can't (and don't) believe that the seasonal guidance outside of the CFS2 for January-March could be so wrong, especially in light of their consistency. Moreover, it wouldn't take much of a change in the placement of the 5H trough south of AK for the CFS2 to look like the other seasonal models. We just have to wait. Patience is going to be tested me thinks, maybe even more so than last winter. I would not be surprised to see legit chances for snow east of the mountains be a month or more away. I know a lot of people hate the back loaded winter deal, but this may be exactly what we get. Feb and March will rock(we hope). Better late than never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Sent from my iPhone Just like 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Sent from my iPhone Better charge that phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Better charge that phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 This is kind of exciting...I am actually starting to root for a complete shutout. Probably wont happen, but its hard to imagine it looking much worse presently. Yeah everyone thought December would suck, but given how completely wrong the pattern is now, and recent persistence(esp on the Pacific side where things have completely flipped to hostile from previous winters), and the stable state of the stratospheric PV, there is actually a chance at complete futility.As long as the stratosphere and the AK/Bering Sea vortex remains as is, there will be no change in the pattern. Those 2 things need to shift big time. We are a long way away from a cold and snowy pattern in the east, minus northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Just like 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 We've been trolling the 09-10 people for a while. #lolmodokiThe 09-10 and 02-03 analogs were lol worthy going into this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I don't get the MJO at all but there's this: https://twitter.com/epawawx/status/675803698237435904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Personally, I think we're going to need to wait until January, early if we're lucky but more likely mid month. This doesn't strike me as a pattern conducive to flukes giving us accumulating snow, but that's just my old gut talking thete. Welcome to October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 1040 H in Quebec brings us rain on 18z GFS at 252 to 264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Seems like it may just be an endless fall and never transition to winter. This is October weather. I wouldn't be surprised by a two week stretch Feb/Mar that is really frigid though. That seems to be a pattern lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 1040 H in Quebec brings us rain on 18z GFS at 252 to 264 1040H is the new 1028H...Need at least a 1050 now...inflation I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 This is kind of exciting...I am actually starting to root for a complete shutout. Probably wont happen, but its hard to imagine it looking much worse presently. Yeah everyone thought December would suck, but given how completely wrong the pattern is now, and recent persistence(esp on the Pacific side where things have completely flipped to hostile from previous winters), and the stable state of the stratospheric PV, there is actually a chance at complete futility. Could be, but our recent winters have all been back-loaded. We could get two storms in Feb/Mar and be set. I think we'll be seeing something more interesting by Jan 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 1040H is the new 1028H...Need at least a 1050 now...inflation I guess At some point in the 90's high pressures were all downgraded in strength. Some kind of atmospheric reset. Highs that used to be super powered now get easily pushed aside by 1010mb drizzle lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 No talk abouthe 180? I will say we have risen from the abyss of 6z GFS...that was absolute zero...we are at 1 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Cold air must be building somewhere. At some point it will unload. Just need to time that with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Cold air must be building somewhere. At some point it will unload. Just need to time that with precip. It seems so simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It seems so simple The angle of the cold air is wrong so far for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Was 18z the worst of the worst of the worst also? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 I think it will be interesting to see how next weekend plays out. At the least it seems a 2-3 day stretch of seasonable cold is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Was 18z the worst of the worst of the worst also? Sent from my iPhone Only top ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Welcome to October.Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Just got back from work, actually kind of excited about the 18zGFS....this is the feature that REALLY interested me... If that is real & that wave can dig and slow down, there is a small legit threat. 00z EURO last night sort of showed it as well. Still a long shot, but interesting, and I'm hungry to track SOMETHING The arrow is pointing to the semi 50/50 feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Was 18z the worst of the worst of the worst also? Sent from my iPhone For some reason, that scene from "Men in Black" came to mind, where the Tommy Lee Jones' character asks why they think they're all there...and the one guy immediately stands up and yells out, "to be the best of the best of the best...sir!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Maybe a flake or two next Saturday, hrs 159 to 165 shows very light QPF over the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Maybe a flake or two next Saturday, hrs 159 to 165 shows very light QPF over the regionBL is warm to start... Probably residual warmth from the current heat wave Seriously tho, thicknesses are low so the tenth of an inch QPF might try to amount to something. Of course I wouldn't bank on it... Really it just makes me raise my eyebrow ever so slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Check out severe heat building in Alaska over last few model runs. Encourahung http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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