AvantHiatus Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I have warned about persistent weather patterns for over a year. It seems to be common to have pattern stability over large tracts of the Earth's surface since about 2011-2013, the causes are still in question and the exact contribution between internal variability and anthropogenic warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Considering there's been close to 100 posts to this thread today, I would've expected something earth shattering. Silly expectations of mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I have warned about persistent weather patterns for over a year. It seems to be common to have pattern stability over large tracts of the Earth's surface since about 2011-2013, the causes are still in question and the exact contribution between internal variability and anthropogenic warming. I think there's at least some truth to this. There is research to that effect as well. More stable patterns, more high amplitude patterns, more blocking patterns. We've had crap winters wall to wall before of course. Many winters there's sort of a see saw that tips back and forth though too it seems. In some cases that might be warm and wet to cold and dry with the end result sucking even if it felt more wintry at times. That ridge is a stable feature back through the fall for the most part. It's also fairly anomalous compared to past stronger nino events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I think there's at least some truth to this. There is research to that effect as well. More stable patterns, more high amplitude patterns, more blocking patterns. We've had crap winters wall to wall before of course. Many winters there's sort of a see saw that tips back and forth though too it seems. In some cases that might be warm and wet to cold and dry with the end result sucking even if it felt more wintry at times. That ridge is a stable feature back through the fall for the most part. It's also fairly anomalous compared to past stronger nino events. Thats' a nice figure. Not sure what it means but most snowy El nino winters had a negative anomaly a little to the south of that positive. If it hangs on then, our winter might be rough sledding for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 One thing is 1982 rises to the top for pattern similarity again at least subjectively. Again 1997 isn't remotely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Thats' a nice figure. Not sure what it means but most snowy El nino winters had a negative anomaly a little to the south of that positive. If it hangs on then, our winter might be rough sledding for snow lovers. Here's just 2015, shows basically the same thing in that predominant ridge zone. So the other is the average of the list subtracted from 2015. It basically shows the height difference between this year and those years. More ridging near lakes, more +NAO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Thats' a nice figure. Not sure what it means but most snowy El nino winters had a negative anomaly a little to the south of that positive. If it hangs on then, our winter might be rough sledding for snow lovers. Or, no sledding, rather! (But water skiing may be an option!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I think there's at least some truth to this. There is research to that effect as well. More stable patterns, more high amplitude patterns, more blocking patterns. We've had crap winters wall to wall before of course. Many winters there's sort of a see saw that tips back and forth though too it seems. In some cases that might be warm and wet to cold and dry with the end result sucking even if it felt more wintry at times. That ridge is a stable feature back through the fall for the most part. It's also fairly anomalous compared to past stronger nino events. The majority of wall to wall terrible or brutally cold and snowy winters seem to occur in neutral or near neutral winters. A few have occurred in very strong La Nina or El Ninos but it seems that most of the time when there is moderate or greater ENSO forcing the atmosphere tends to undergo some sort of substantial change at a point in the winter which causes the pattern to flip making it hard to hold the same pattern for 3-4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies are nothing special. At least nothing awful and nothing great anyways. Week 4 has a decent h5 look. -EPO and aluetian low is far enough west. Split flow look. Higher heights build right over the pole but the NAO is a stubborn mule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies are nothing special. At least nothing awful and nothing great anyways. Week 4 has a decent h5 look. -EPO and aluetian low is far enough west. Split flow look. Higher heights build right over the pole but the NAO is a stubborn mule. The NAO should not matter much if we can go into the classic +PNA with the Aleutian low retrograding in Jan/Feb. We will see plenty of chances for cold and snow if that configuration sets up. We saw that last winter, although for the MA and further south the -NAO probably could have helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies are nothing special. At least nothing awful and nothing great anyways. Week 4 has a decent h5 look. -EPO and aluetian low is far enough west. Split flow look. Higher heights build right over the pole but the NAO is a stubborn mule. As long as we can get this annoyingly persistent ridge out of the way and get some troughing east of the Rockies than we have some hope with climo alone, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies are nothing special. At least nothing awful and nothing great anyways. Week 4 has a decent h5 look. -EPO and aluetian low is far enough west. Split flow look. Higher heights build right over the pole but the NAO is a stubborn mule. How about week 1, 2 and 3?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The majority of wall to wall terrible or brutally cold and snowy winters seem to occur in neutral or near neutral winters. A few have occurred in very strong La Nina or El Ninos but it seems that most of the time when there is moderate or greater ENSO forcing the atmosphere tends to undergo some sort of substantial change at a point in the winter which causes the pattern to flip making it hard to hold the same pattern for 3-4 months. I wouldn't necessarily expect we keep the pattern the same.. we could also change up the pattern with that zone still being a ridge-favored zone. Euro weeklies do show more of a true southern stream toward the end but that ridge is still there along with the +NAO. If we're not far from here in a month or so it could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I wonder the the EPO (or at least some transient ridging over AK) matters more than the PNA in a season like this. There's definitely signals that strong nino snowy periods have come without a +PNA from multiple sites/sources. Lower height or at least not hugely high heights in SW Canada almost seem to reinforce a -NAO at times. NAO is critical in stronger Ninos IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 How about week 1, 2 and 3?. Awful I would imagine. Even the Op GFS runs, which I shouldn't be looking at anyway, look less than good. It's just a bad pattern and a stubborn one that may not improve to our liking. Sad but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 I wonder the the EPO (or at least some transient ridging over AK) matters more than the PNA in a season like this. There's definitely signals that strong nino snowy periods have come without a +PNA from multiple sites/sources. Lower height or at least not hugely high heights in SW Canada almost seem to reinforce a -NAO at times. NAO is critical in stronger Ninos IMO. I wonder if the EPO isn't maybe the most important factor. We haven't had much Atlantic help in a while, yet managed a couple of pretty good winters. That's not to say that a good Atlantic can't help overcome a poor Pacific, but I wonder if the Pacific, when favorable, produces good results no matter the Atlantic conditions. Are there any strong Ninos with a favorable EPO to measure this by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 How about week 1, 2 and 3?.Weeks 1&2 are always identical to the previous 0z ens run. Week 3 starts ok and ends warm as the trough digs in the west again. The short story is week 3 is no different than week 2 for the most part. Ian, agree about the stupid ridge or AN heights to our n-ne. They are ever present start to finish. At least the pac moves notably in the right direction. Extrapolated weeks 5-6 are money! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Weeks 1&2 are always identical to the previous 0z ens run. Week 3 starts ok and ends warm as the trough digs in the west again. The short story is week 3 is no different than week 2 for the most part. Ian, agree about the stupid ridge or AN heights to our n-ne. They are ever present start to finish. At least the pac moves notably in the right direction. Extrapolated weeks 5-6 are money! Lol Cool. In 5 weeks, a 6 week forecast puts us in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I wonder if the EPO isn't maybe the most important factor. We haven't had much Atlantic help in a while, yet managed a couple of pretty good winters. That's not to say that a good Atlantic can't help overcome a poor Pacific, but I wonder if the Pacific, when favorable, produces good results no matter the Atlantic conditions. Are there any strong Ninos with a favorable EPO to measure this by? A true negative EPO strong nino winter? Not sure but I kind of doubt it in the classic sense. Even calling what I'm thinking of a negative EPO might be stretching it. But a month like Feb 1958 had some ridging over AK for the month and during the leadup to the bigger event. In any rate, a ridge over AK is always a good thing. PNA, not as sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Jan 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Weeks 1&2 are always identical to the previous 0z ens run. Week 3 starts ok and ends warm as the trough digs in the west again. The short story is week 3 is no different than week 2 for the most part. Ian, agree about the stupid ridge or AN heights to our n-ne. They are ever present start to finish. At least the pac moves notably in the right direction. Extrapolated weeks 5-6 are money! Lol It does shift a bit noticeably west late but that could just be it moving around in its little domain. Euro monthlies do shift it west with time through Jan and Feb. Not sure either particularly screams greatness but as noted I'd be tempted to see the Jan pattern come to play and hope for a better look for Feb next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Sorry to post so many of these dump 500mb maps but this Nino has made me fascinated to keep playing around with things... check out the diff between this met fall and last met fall. That lakes vortex was quite a persistent feature of recent times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 00z GFS at super longe range brings the PV down for a visit into Central Canada... with a 1055mb H moving into the NW Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Are we rain on the 00z EURO? ETA: Yes at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Disagree, few days ago GFS was showing a 50/50 low, now theres nothing to lock in cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I see nothing that would deliver the cold air.. Like Highzenberg said, the 50/50 is gone! You hope for a flake at the end.. which I would like to see, but not a real confident forecast. 850s definitely look colder after the storm, but it is gonna move on out! - I'd even pull for a bit of CAD but a 1012 high is LAME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 My expectations are in check . I'm just looking for a storm to track period.....rain..snow...wind...hail. This has at least some potential for flakes in this forums boundaries. True.. and it looks really windy behind it! I will need to sure up some Christmas decorations a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Disagree, few days ago GFS was showing a 50/50 low, now theres nothing to lock in cold air And it's almost guaranteed to show something different by this time tomorrow. Excitement and despair are both futile exercises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 I just posted this in the Panic thread. Anybody got any thoughts or insight on this? Have you looked at the DJF seasonal mean chart. I just did, maybe for the first time ever. Very interesting. The graph on the NOAA site (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/JFM_season_ao_index.shtml) sure makes it look like there may be a decades long oscillation with the winter AO. Could we be stuck in a predominantly pos winter AO trend for a good while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I just posted this in the Panic thread. Anybody got any thoughts or insight on this? There definitely seems to be multi-year dominant phases with both the AO and NAO. The hows and whys are way above my pay grade. But with any multi-year trend there are exceptions. We're supposed to be in a -PDO phase but last year into this year have proved otherwise. My confidence in the SAI/SCE is at an all time low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.