Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Lets make it trend: #384HoursOfGFSmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 nothing good, has a 2-3 day cold shot but its dry and transient and is about to warm back up by day 10 there's no precip with that u/l Low? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015121012&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=576 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 there's no precip with that u/l Low? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015121012&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=576 it develops a weak coastal but way OTS. Its closer to bermuda then us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 there's no precip with that u/l Low? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015121012&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=576 As the vort moves into the atl a lp forms well off the coast. Bone dry except a little upslope in the mtns during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 As the vort moves into the atl a lp forms well off the coast. Bone dry except a little upslope in the mtns during the period. road trip at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 It is a godawful pattern we're in. I mean wow. Just the possibility of the warmest Dec on record is stomach turning if you like snowstorms. I appreciate the longwave pattern is really, really bad across NA and especially eastern NA. And I also appreciate the next 7 days look substantially warmer than the past 7 days based on every forecast everywhere. But, speaking for IAD, the cumulative departure the past 7 days is +1.6 and we've been below freezing on 6 out of 7 days. Here in Leesburg I think yesterday's high was a drizzly wet 43*. Today is the first day in a while that has seemed unseasonably mild at least to me. Based on all the despair, I would have expected to be in shorts and flip flops unimpeded for the past 3 weeks. But, outside of a few notably warm days after Thanksgiving, we've been basically near climo in terms of occurrent wx. Not disputing there is some sustained and real unseasonable warmth on the way, but given all the LR progs from 3 weeks ago it's amazing to me we have not been a whole lot warmer here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 road trip at least If you want to drive 4 hours to see a coating to an inch sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 If you want to drive 4 hours to see a coating to an inch sure you're no weenie getouta here you faker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I appreciate the longwave pattern is really, really bad across NA and especially eastern NA. And I also appreciate the next 7 days look substantially warmer than the past 7 days based on every forecast everywhere. But, speaking for IAD, the cumulative departure the past 7 days is +1.6 and we've been below freezing on 6 out of 7 days. Here in Leesburg I think yesterday's high was a drizzly wet 43*. Today is the first day in a while that has seemed unseasonably mild at least to me. Based on all the despair, I would have expected to be in shorts and flip flops unimpeded for the past 3 weeks. But, outside of a few notably warm days after Thanksgiving, we've been basically near climo in terms of occurrent wx. Not disputing there is some sustained and real unseasonable warmth on the way, but given all the LR progs from 3 weeks ago it's amazing to me we have not been a whole lot warmer here already. I don't think people complaining really care if we are 45 or 65, its the pattern and how close/far we are from having any chance at snow. We are in a sustained pattern that offers absolutely no chance at any frozen precip and so regardless of surface temps people are frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 you're no weenie getouta here you faker! LOL... I drove out to deep creek lake a couple times in the fall to see early snow. A few years ago for Sandy and several years before that for a late October snowstorm, also drove from Penn State up to Ithica to see snow in November once but I think my bar is set at at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I don't think people complaining really care if we are 45 or 65, its the pattern and how close/far we are from having any chance at snow. We are in a sustained pattern that offers absolutely no chance at any frozen precip and so regardless of surface temps people are frustrated. Exactly. It's not about departures. It's the fact that the entire continent has been roasting in the mid levels and we're staring down another week+ of zero chances. Combine that with a LW pattern that really needs a complete overhaul to get even remotely right and it gets on the nerves a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I don't think people complaining really care if we are 45 or 65, its the pattern and how close/far we are from having any chance at snow. We are in a sustained pattern that offers absolutely no chance at any frozen precip and so regardless of surface temps people are frustrated. I guess the point is we've been far warmer relative to normal under supposedly far less hostile longwave patterns. And it hasn't been all that wet either, I can certainly remember 97-98 and this does not seem to compare. It's just hard to have a 2001-02 level of despair over a week or two of warm wx, when we had the same thing in other El Nino Decembers as recently as 02-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 nothing good, has a 2-3 day cold shot but its dry and transient and is about to warm back up by day 10The euro is normal temps for a few days then it's getting ready to go back to the same warm background pattern we have been in by day 10. Wash, rinse repeat on this run, transient shot then back to status quo. This is becoming troubling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The start to Dec has mainly been a good reminder that high heights don't necessarily mean nonstop torch this time of year. Inversions have kept plenty of places from putting up big departures but it's been hostile to snow either way. Overall pattern has not been like 97-98 at all either really but not sure that means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The euro is normal temps for a few days then it's getting ready to go back to the same warm background pattern we have been in by day 10. Wash, rinse repeat on this run, transient shot then back to status quo. This is becoming troublingI don't see any major sign of a pattern change of any note. Looks to me like we are still just rolling back through the same type of pattern but heading into prime climo so any breaks might offer a glimmer of hope. Maybe a slight eastward shift with time which might bode well for tracking stuff at least. The longer range progs on the euro ensembles suck. But january didn't look 'the worst' on monthlies so I will reserve judgment by that period for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The euro is normal temps for a few days then it's getting ready to go back to the same warm background pattern we have been in by day 10. Wash, rinse repeat on this run, transient shot then back to status quo. This is becoming troubling Nah....sometimes you just have to be willing to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 2 big step backs since the 00z euro and 6z Gfs. this winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Looks like some are starting to think a major pattern change will happen around the 20th of December. Such as in this post it's the second post down. https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast/ Also check out Allan Huffman's twitter page he's not saying major pattern changed but shows coldest air mass of the season so far. https://twitter.com/RaleighWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 2 big step backs since the 00z euro and 6z Gfs. this winter sucks You cannot rely on operational models as they keep changing. The best thing to do is follow the ensembles. Even if the eastern US doesn't see a major pattern change as least their is lots of cold air in Canada so it's only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 You cannot rely on operational models as they keep changing. The best thing to do is follow the ensembles. Even if the eastern US doesn't see a major pattern change as least their is lots of cold air in Canada so it's only a matter of time. GEFS look just as bad as they did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I don't know...but the 12z GEFS look a bit better in the LR. West coast trough retros a bit off the coast and looks like a +PNA wants to pop. Hard to trust the new GEFS tho...seems kind of jumpy in the LR. Euro has been much more stable in its 11-15 depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 GEFS look just as bad as they did last week. Not really. Conus trough axis right up the MS river and kink in the heights in the EPO region. I'm not saying this plot is a good pattern for snow but it's certainly better than what's been advertised since the month began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I don't see any major sign of a pattern change of any note. Looks to me like we are still just rolling back through the same type of pattern but heading into prime climo so any breaks might offer a glimmer of hope. Maybe a slight eastward shift with time which might bode well for tracking stuff at least. The longer range progs on the euro ensembles suck. But january didn't look 'the worst' on monthlies so I will reserve judgment by that period for now. Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol I agree that the GFS looks at least a smidge better long range. Same thing we've been talking about mainly all the axes shifting east or northeast a bit. If that comes to fruition we should at least start getting in on the LP train better. Probably still need some luck to get one to go underneath us just right but better odds than we have before any sort of shift it seems. Just not sure I buy it tho it has been advertised off and on a while now so it must happen at some point right? ;P 12z Euro ens still a disaster throughout. Gotta squint to make something good out of 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 You cannot rely on operational models as they keep changing. The best thing to do is follow the ensembles. Even if the eastern US doesn't see a major pattern change as least their is lots of cold air in Canada so it's only a matter of time. It's better than JI relying on himself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol Yeah, it's pretty hard to write off anything entirely after the 20th or so at this point. Right now, many of the climate models are reacting to the severe heat moving through the country, but viewing several operational runs suggesting ridge movement NW is a step. A true pattern change usually starts with transient bursts of cold air. If you look at this next 5 days as rock bottom, it helps with the pain. Of course, The CFSV2 is currently showing a massive EC ski-resort failure all the way to the middle of January. It's monthly consistency is rightfully giving many pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol as long as I keep seeing a ridge over SE Asia, things will be naso hot around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The dipole persistence that's basically opposite of the last two winters is remarkable so far and I guess it'll continue given strong Nino climo. Whatever shift here or there I feel like I've been looking at this pattern forever at 360 on EPS give or take a blip or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The dipole persistence that's basically opposite of the last two winters is remarkable so far and I guess it'll continue given strong Nino climo. Whatever shift here or there I feel like I've been looking at this pattern forever at 360 on EPS give or take a blip or two. ive seen this map everyday for past 8 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 ive seen this map everyday for past 8 weeks Like every day except 3 or 4 is +10 to +20 through the run. +10s all over at the end again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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