BristowWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I don't think people are really talking about a fundamental shift in the overall pattern, but rather the possibility of a transient relaxation of this putrid mess that may slightly open a window. I don't think we see a real shift until mid January at the earliest. that's exactly it. like many of us I have a lot of time on my hands during holiday and model watching is fun...weather models included. any storminess is good in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 82 was pretty flukey. Best thump before dawn. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/1982/12/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Arlington&req_state=DC&reqdb.zip=22222&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Pattern is definitely changing for NA. Right now the entire continent is a flood of above normal mid-level air. The trough axis out west migrates east over time on the ensembles and the height pattern over AK/nw canada goes from atrocious to pretty gross to notsoawful. Looking at our area and the NE specifically it does look bad d10-15. But things are definitely changing for the western 2/3rds of NA. IMO- a hard to budge ridge isn't the most likely sensible wx d10-15 and even through the end of the month. We're going to have progressive flow and more amplified troughs moving in and out. So stagnant warmth (imo) isn't what the pattern looks like. Now if we're talking specifically about snow chances in the pattern...that looks like a steaming pile of dung but not impossible for flukes. We've been getting snow in patterns that generally shouldn't snow for 2 years straight. We'll need a lot of luck this month but hopefully the hostility keeps stepping down through the next 4 weeks. i will defer to you since honestly you follow/track and have become an expert on this long range stuff. I just glance at stuff beyond 10 days from time to time and I peeked at the day 15 GEFS from a run or two ago and the h5 anamalies looked almost the same as right now. But that was just one frame from one run and your analysis is better, plus more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nice loop Ian. Actually looks a bit like the ens members that show snow here. Are you able to pull analog from SV based on specific h5 or mslp panels? I'd be curious to what pops up from last nights EPS centered around d8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 i will defer to you since honestly you follow/track and have become an expert on this long range stuff. I just glance at stuff beyond 10 days from time to time and I peeked at the day 15 GEFS from a run or two ago and the h5 anamalies looked almost the same as right now. But that was just one frame from one run and your analysis is better, plus more optimistic. If you have wxbell, loop the EPS northern hemisphere h5 plots. There are marked improvements through time in our source region. Basically the cold rebuilds through the western 2/3rds of Canada. That HAS to happen or were literally toast. I don't think I've seen such a disgusting 850 temp anomaly panel for NA then what is happening right now. We go from this To this The above normal stuff in northern Canada is only like .5 - 1C above. Plenty cold up there this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nice loop Ian. Actually looks a bit like the ens members that show snow here. Are you able to pull analog from SV based on specific h5 or mslp panels? I'd be curious to what pops up from last nights EPS centered around d8-10. Doesn't line up quite right per their periods. This is from EPS. Don't see 1982 in any of them though. 6-10 based on 1-5 period 1983-11-27 1951-12-11 2002-12-23 1979-11-30 2003-12-17 1984-11-27 1980-11-28 1997-12-10 1999-12-12 1973-11-27 11-15 based on 6-10 period 1968-12-07 1962-12-08 1977-12-26 1989-01-02 1979-12-07 1993-01-02 2007-12-26 2006-12-28 1952-12-13 1994-11-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 That Christmas period in 2002 is in most of them. Congrats SNE. They all go back to crap after whatever window there may be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I was in germantown in 02. IIRC we had about 2" on xmas eve. I'll fall out of my chair if we get 2" this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 82 was pretty flukey. Best thump before dawn. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/1982/12/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Arlington&req_state=DC&reqdb.zip=22222&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999 I was up almost all night. Sweet event and a real forecast bust by all forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I was in germantown in 02. IIRC we had about 2" on xmas eve. I'll fall out of my chair if we get 2" this month. Yeah I think most would still take it. But we'd complain a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I was up almost all night. Sweet event and a real forecast bust by all forecasters. That's gotta be about our most anomalous month when it comes to snow averages and temp avgs. Monthly was only 0.1 behind warmest Dec in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 That's gotta be about our most anomalous month when it comes to snow averages and temp avgs. Monthly was only 0.1 behind warmest Dec in DC. With the strength of the NINO, it had all the ingredients for it......just like this year?? I guess we'll see (and hope.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 The GFS looks like it just threw out the 0z and 6z runs and went right back to yesterdays 18z run. Almost identical........at least out to about 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I will run with the 12z GGEM at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 I will run with the 12z GGEM at 240 You always go with the Canadian at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 You always go with the Canadian at 240.I hear 240 is its sweet spot. It's certainly not 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 You always go with the Canadian at 240. Cause it looks decent this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Ooooh extrapolated 240 Canadian is even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Ooooh extrapolated 240 Canadian is even better! DGEX, right? Yes, its 240, and yes, it will likely be gone next run, but models are finally hinting at the potential for our luck to change during this time period and just after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 DGEX, right? Yes, its 240, and yes, it will likely be gone next run, but models are finally hinting at the potential for our luck to change during this time period and just after I don't see any cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 DGEX, right? Yes, its 240, and yes, it will likely be gone next run, but models are finally hinting at the potential for our luck to change during this time period and just after That's more or less my take. Right now I'm not taking any d+10 storm that pops up all that seriously, other than they're sure nice to look at. But I'd like to think at least it's a sign that things may (emphasis on that word!) be changing for the better as we move into the second half of December. We could just as easily go back to putrescence (wouldn't be surprising), but as others have said, maybe this is an indication that we'll have some window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Bob is right in that the pattern is shifting in some ways, the trough in the west allows cold to reload in canada but the AO/PNA combo is pretty crappy and I feel like if it wasn't for just how god awful the current pattern has been we probably wouldn't be at all interested in this coming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Bob is right in that the pattern is shifting in some ways, the trough in the west allows cold to reload in canada but the AO/PNA combo is pretty crappy and I feel like if it wasn't for just how god awful the current pattern has been we probably wouldn't be at all interested in this coming one. It is a godawful pattern we're in. I mean wow. Just the possibility of the warmest Dec on record is stomach turning if you like snowstorms. But we have to start somewhere. I've given up on the AO for the next month. We've seen this before. It's not going to magically flip this month. However, the changes showing up are encouraging. My fear was a reset to where we are now. As each day goes by it seems that is less likely. 12z GEFS definitely look far less hostile in the PNA/EPO domain space as we approach the holiday. I would GLADLY welcome a +PNA/-EPO this month even if the AO/NAO suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 We have the fall back position of: The GFS might (lol) not be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I don't see any cold air... Yeah pretty awful set up, even on the CMC. That would be rain as advertised outside of the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Cause it looks decent this go around 24012zGGEM12-10-15.gif Supression Depression? But it does look like it would be wintry if it turned the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 It is a godawful pattern we're in. I mean wow. Just the possibility of the warmest Dec on record is stomach turning if you like snowstorms. But we have to start somewhere. I've given up on the AO for the next month. We've seen this before. It's not going to magically flip this month. However, the changes showing up are encouraging. My fear was a reset to where we are now. As each day goes by it seems that is less likely. 12z GEFS definitely look far less hostile in the PNA/EPO domain space as we approach the holiday. I would GLADLY welcome a +PNA/-EPO this month even if the AO/NAO suck. I agree with what you said 100% and the changes are encouraging if we are viewing them from the perspective of "eventually it could lead to something". Anything different is good right now. But I think some people are actually viewing this period as having potential and that was what I was taking issue with. A fluke can happen i guess in almost any pattern (except this one) but I really don't see much potential in the pattern showing up in the long ranges. I do see how it is a step towards a possible pattern in January that could have promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Euro seems to have made some big changes at one week from this time yesterday. Not sure if any of them are good, but its diff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Euro seems to have made some big changes at one week from this time yesterday. Not sure if any of them are good, but its diff. nothing good, has a 2-3 day cold shot but its dry and transient and is about to warm back up by day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I agree with what you said 100% and the changes are encouraging if we are viewing them from the perspective of "eventually it could lead to something". Anything different is good right now. But I think some people are actually viewing this period as having potential and that was what I was taking issue with. A fluke can happen i guess in almost any pattern (except this one) but I really don't see much potential in the pattern showing up in the long ranges. I do see how it is a step towards a possible pattern in January that could have promise. This is pretty much how I'm looking at things. Nothing more, nothing less, really. Well, I did mention the hope for a "window of opportunity" for an accumulating snow event, but that's more of a long shot kind of hope for this month. Right now, I don't see that as overly great of a chance, and I'm not expecting a December 1982 style fluke storm in the midst of a very warm month at all. That all said, I still feel that we don't get a complete shut-out thrown at us this month, and that we'll score a couple of colder days with some mood flakes to a coating at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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