Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 No, on TropTB it's GEPS, GEFS, EPS. I don't know what GEPS is. And....I was saying the mean on the two I mentioned didn't look that bad over the lower 48. Ooops...well, sorry about that, I guess I totally mis-interpreted what you were asking! Hope what I mentioned was at least not totally without merit though. I have no idea what the GEPS is either... GEPS on trop tids is the Canadian ens. I tend not to look at it much. ...and now have the answer (thanks, Bob)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Let's see how this plays out. Can't really look a whole lot worse than this for us d15. Let's see how the period around the 23rd evolves as we get closer. d15puke.JPG All the ensemble means look pretty bad at the end of the run. All are also still showing a strong stratospheric vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Way to bring the house down Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think the GFS ens was so bad that it crashed the PSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 FWIW- the parallel EPS 45 day data on wxbell shows the first half of Jan to basically be normal temps and climo snow on the means. Coldest period is Jan 11th on. Could just be simple climo built in. OTOH- ens mean precip over the next 45 days is 5-6" so above normal precip. I'm not sure it means anything to be honest but it doesn't show a torch so there's that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Why get invested in what any model shows at the end of its run? Pointless exercise, especially now when we all suspected December would suck. All the long-range looks are doing is confirming what we already [should have] expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z GGEM at 240 is juicy... ETA: Yes, mattie g, but its the only interesting weather on the models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z GGEM at 240 is juicy... ETA: Yes, mattie g, but its the only interesting weather on the models right now Completely agreed, yoda. I just don't think people should get upset about a poor look in the long-range right now. Just because we're torching and the AO and NAO suck for us, there's no reason to think that can't/won't change as we press into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 Completely agreed, yoda. I just don't think people should get upset about a poor look in the long-range right now. Just because we're torching and the AO and NAO suck for us, there's no reason to think that can't/won't change as we press into January. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 FWIW- the parallel EPS 45 day data on wxbell shows the first half of Jan to basically be normal temps and climo snow on the means. Coldest period is Jan 11th on. Could just be simple climo built in. OTOH- ens mean precip over the next 45 days is 5-6" so above normal precip. I'm not sure it means anything to be honest but it doesn't show a torch so there's that...lol Appreciate your posts Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Oh and yeah, 12z GFS hr 384 snowstorm ftw Pretty much all there is right now to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Oh and yeah, 12z GFS hr 384 snowstorm ftw Pretty much all there is right now to look at Actually it's cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Actually it's cold rain how do you know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Actually it's cold rain Its a snow profile -- I can see the sounding at 384... its a wet snow sounding though We are left to argue soundings at GFS LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 how do you know that?Look at Instantweathermaps, it's a wet snow north/west of Baltimore but rain south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z gfs op closely agrees with the overall look that the EPS and GEFS have with persistent troughing in the west and coldest air focused west as well. We aren't getting snow or cold until that type of persistence has run its course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Its a snow profile -- I can see the sounding at 384... its a wet snow sounding though We are left to argue soundings at GFS LR This is the sounding at DCA at hr 384: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Look at Instantweathermaps, it's a wet snow north/west of Baltimore but rain south. I am sure it will verify exactly that way. The advertised pattern is still crappy. Its like 4th and 20 for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The 240 GGEM isn't a snow setup, not even close. GFS has gotten rid of the NAO idea.....This is frustrating, but need to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z gfs op closely agrees with the overall look that the EPS and GEFS have with persistent troughing in the west and coldest air focused west as well. We aren't getting snow or cold until that type of persistence has run its course.Gefs keeps pushing back any transition out of the trough west/ridge east pattern. Now has it xmas week. Very end of the 12Z gefs is decent were it to ever materialize . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The LR EURO is actually close to showing a decent setup for a snow event Days 8-10 in response to a +PNA...Pattern is still a ways off from being anything great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Gefs keeps pushing back any transition out of the trough west/ridge east pattern. Now has it xmas week. Very end of the 12Z gefs is decent were it to ever materialize .We've been through this exercise a lot over the years. The way out of this rough stretch is going to be later rather than sooner most likely. I suppose the bright side is timing. Assuming things do get better in Jan, it's a good month for so-so setups unlike early and late in the year. Weird euro run today. Kinda bizarre d8-10. Almost certainly a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Oh and yeah, 12z GFS hr 384 snowstorm ftw Pretty much all there is right now to look at i think ncep programs the 384 hour to show a snowstorm no matter what the pattern is. Either that or its a bug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 We've been through this exercise a lot over the years. The way out of this rough stretch is going to be later rather than sooner most likely. I suppose the bright side is timing. Assuming things do get better in Jan, it's a good month for so-so setups unlike early and late in the year. Weird euro run today. Kinda bizarre d8-10. Almost certainly a blip. The GFS look at around day 10 would at least open the door to at least the chance of a winter type event............even if its equal to the chance of the Vikings winning the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The GFS look at around day 10 would at least open the door to at least the chance of a winter type event............even if its equal to the chance of the Vikings winning the Super Bowl. As a fellow Vikings fan from TN, the truth hurts........ I didn't realize we could even calculate odds for something that has never happened. It seems the GFS perpetually leaves the door open in the LR, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 We've been through this exercise a lot over the years. The way out of this rough stretch is going to be later rather than sooner most likely. I suppose the bright side is timing. Assuming things do get better in Jan, it's a good month for so-so setups unlike early and late in the year. Weird euro run today. Kinda bizarre d8-10. Almost certainly a blip. I didn't really see a reason to simply leave the trough behind on day 8, but that's what it did. It's the LR though, so while fun to discuss, not much value other than showing the likelihood of keeping all the blues/purples/oranges/reds largely in all the wrong places. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The GFS look at around day 10 would at least open the door to at least the chance of a winter type event............even if its equal to the chance of the Vikings winning the Super Bowl. I agree that ops and ens agree on a robust trough digging west first and then bleeding colder air east. The 12z euro op is really strange in the west. Digs the trough in the west and the sw on the base backs into the ridge that's sandwiched between another sw in the Pac. The ridge gets pinched into a rex config with a nearly 1050hp pushing down. It just looks weird. I would think the most likely outcome would be for the shortwave in the west to get ejected much quicker and any associated storm would end up tracking to our nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 This is the sounding at DCA at hr 384: 12zGFS384soundingargumentatDCA.gif It doesent even look saturated in areas prime for ice crystal growth so freezing drizzle most likely. Fantasy land can't deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 I agree that ops and ens agree on a robust trough digging west first and then bleeding colder air east. The 12z euro op is really strange in the west. Digs the trough in the west and the sw on the base backs into the ridge that's sandwiched between another sw in the Pac. The ridge gets pinched into a rex config with a nearly 1050hp pushing down. It just looks weird. I would think the most likely outcome would be for the shortwave in the west to get ejected much quicker and any associated storm would end up tracking to our nw. And that seems to be the GFS bag of tricks these days. Show a storm along the se/ma at day 9-10 and either dissolve it completely or send it to our nw...........very far to our nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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