mitchnick Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Otoh, seems like word in the other forums is that the surface temps are AN all 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Ok, the last 3 runs of the GFS have a storm for next Monday in the MA. Let's just see how close to accurate that turns out to be. Yes, it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Otoh, seems like word in the other forums is that the surface temps are AN all 4 weeks. Week 4 were close enough to average to not care much. It's the beginning of our coldest climo period. Height patterns are more important anyways. Pna and epo start to cooperate. It will change a lot over the next 3 weeks either way. Just gotta wait it out and hope for the best. Looks pretty wet on the means both weeks 3 and 4. Never a bad thing last week of Dec and first of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Week 4 were close enough to average to not care much. It's the beginning of our coldest climo period. Height patterns are more important anyways. Pna and epo start to cooperate. It will change a lot over the next 3 weeks either way. Just gotta wait it out and hope for the best. Looks pretty wet on the means both weeks 3 and 4. Never a bad thing last week of Dec and first of Jan. Yeah, above/below can be meaningless. If a week avgs +1, so what? If it's -10 (avg) during a precip event we're good to go. It can be +3 the other 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I'd take the 6z lr miller b in a heartbeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I would give up all presents and donate my kids as well for the 6Z GFS to come to fruition. That is a sweet looking 300hr and beyond look and its amazing how some high pressure near Greenland can change the equation even if only modeled for the next 6 hours. I mean donate my kids presents of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I cried looking at the 6z Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Week 4 were close enough to average to not care much. It's the beginning of our coldest climo period. Height patterns are more important anyways. Pna and epo start to cooperate. It will change a lot over the next 3 weeks either way. Just gotta wait it out and hope for the best. Looks pretty wet on the means both weeks 3 and 4. Never a bad thing last week of Dec and first of Jan. Doespite the near normal temps on week 4. I thought it looked pretty hideous with the positive AO and low heights over AK. That usually means we average a bit above normal and makes it difficult to get a big snowstorm. It's better than the 3 earlier weeks but still is basically not a great pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Doespite the near normal temps on week 4. I thought it looked pretty hideous with the positive AO and low heights over AK. That usually means we average a bit above normal and makes it difficult to get a big snowstorm. It's better than the 3 earlier weeks but still is basically not a great pattern. Week 4 seems like that would be ok for inland locations with elevation especially further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Week 4 seems like that would be ok for inland locations with elevation especially further north. So, your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Doespite the near normal temps on week 4. I thought it looked pretty hideous with the positive AO and low heights over AK. That usually means we average a bit above normal and makes it difficult to get a big snowstorm. It's better than the 3 earlier weeks but still is basically not a great pattern. No doubt Wes. A previous post of mine simply said not great and not awful and no blocking. It's nothing more than a potential step away from a really really bad pattern. Looks more likely that any transition away from the Dec look is going to be a drawn out process and not a rubber band snap. Once again the strat is working hard against us for the 3rd year in a row. Combine that with strong enso...heh I'd be happy with a messy little event in Dec and agree that a big storm is going to have a tough time with both track and temps until things change quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45991-winter-2015-2016-speculation-and-discussion/?p=3786757 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 12z GFS at the end of its run brings in the a part of the PV (I think?) into the NE... 510 DM heights ftw... 504 DM heights in NE at 384... wish this would come to fruition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 12z GFS at the end of its run brings in the a part of the PV (I think?) into the NE... 510 DM heights ftw Sick west based -nao's tend to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Doespite the near normal temps on week 4. I thought it looked pretty hideous with the positive AO and low heights over AK. That usually means we average a bit above normal and makes it difficult to get a big snowstorm. It's better than the 3 earlier weeks but still is basically not a great pattern. Is that what we are looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I cried looking at the 6z Gfs lol it wasn't even that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 12z GFS at the end of its run brings in the a part of the PV (I think?) into the NE... 510 DM heights ftw... 504 DM heights in NE at 384... wish this would come to fruition... You mean 5 days? The GFS is only about 1000 miles off with its low pressure on Monday morning from where it was at just 18 hours ago. I'm sure that doesn't affect its solutions down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Is that what we are looking for? not sure about the rest of you but I am looking for a sick west based -NAO...just because I can't remember what one looks like and I know they bring special things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 lol it wasn't even that good. I didn't think so either, but I didn't want to stand in the way of progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I didn't think so either, but I didn't want to stand in the way of progress. Well if it was hr 84 we'd be all over it. Then later disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Okay, 12z GFS LR would be exactly what we need. NAO, the Alaskan ULL is gone. That is 2 runs in a row now in the LR that is showing some hope. Let's keep it rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Okay, 12z GFS LR would be exactly what we need. NAO, the Alaskan ULL is gone. That is 2 runs in a row now in the LR that is showing some hope. Let's keep it rolling. Op runs are obviously sketchy for LR teleconnections but it's at least mildly interesting that the last 3 gfs op runs take the AO negative around the 13th and keep it there through the end of the runs. GEFS has a ton of spread right now so I suppose that "could" be an early clue that things could start changing. Euro also takes the AO negative around the same time (13th) but the euro ens are decidedly + in the long range. One thing in the back of my mind is the fact that the AO flipped strong + right around the beginning of Nov. We're moving towards that 45-60 day period when strong + or - regimes like to relax or switch. I'm not sure this applies when the period starts in Nov. I've only looked DJFM in the past where the correlation is pretty strong. Have no idea about anomalous periods beginning in Nov. Personally, I would hedge with a +AO through the entire month of Dec with only brief breaks. Strat is hostile for a regime change and persistence is usually a smart call either way until any type of meaningful change in right on top of us. Objectively there are at least some things to consider for a possible relaxation and/or period of -AO this month. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Op runs are obviously sketchy for LR teleconnections but it's at least mildly interesting that the last 3 gfs op runs take the AO negative around the 13th and keep it there through the end of the runs. GEFS has a ton of spread right now so I suppose that "could" be an early clue that things could start changing. Euro also takes the AO negative around the same time (13th) but the euro ens are decidedly + in the long range. One thing in the back of my mind is the fact that the AO flipped strong + right around the beginning of Nov. We're moving towards that 45-60 day period when strong + or - regimes like to relax or switch. I'm not sure this applies when the period starts in Nov. I've only looked DJFM in the past where the correlation is pretty strong. Have no idea about anomalous periods beginning in Nov. Personally, I would hedge with a +AO through the entire month of Dec with only brief breaks. Strat is hostile for a regime change and persistence is usually a smart call either way until any type of meaningful change in right on top of us. Objectively there are at least some things to consider for a possible relaxation and/or period of -AO this month. Time will tell. aogfs.JPG aoens.JPG aoind.JPG Interesting that the 5 runs prior to the last 3 had the AO + on the 17th. The last 3 runs are a complete flip of that. On to something? Or on something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 lol it wasn't even that good. Should have saved tears for the 12z 384hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Interesting that the 5 runs prior to the last 3 had the AO + on the 17th. The last 3 runs are a complete flip of that. On to something? Or on something? You love beating on ops beyond their useful range. GFS has been staying tightly clustered run over run in the 0-6 day range. Just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 You love beating on ops beyond their useful range. GFS has been staying tightly clustered run over run in the 0-6 day range. Just like the Euro. I'll tell you what Bob, go look at the 500 ht pattern on yesterdays GFS for Sunday at 18z (within your 6 day window). Then compare it to today's 12z run at the same time (126 hrs). Look in the Canadian Maritimes, Hudson Bay, and Greenland areas. If you call that "tightly clustered", then I guess I don't know what weather prediction is useful for. I mean, sure, if you don't care if a storm is within 500 miles of where you think it's going to be, or if you don't care if the temp forecast is off by 25 degrees, then all is good. I always take up for the GFS. Ask Matt or Ian. I always challenge the Euro is king talk. But right now, the GFS is doing very well. You do what you want, but I don't think I'll get too disappointed or excited by any GFS operational solutions beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 WnWxLvr, I was only talking about numerical indices being tightly clustered. The large domain spaces filter the noise of run over run shifts in h5/mslp placements through time. Op runs are quite useful through day 6 or even 7. I understand you totally disagree and that's totally fine. We disagree because we look at them for different things with different expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 WnWxLvr, I was only talking about numerical indices being tightly clustered. The large domain spaces filter the noise of run over run shifts in h5/mslp placements through time. Op runs are quite useful through day 6 or even 7. I understand you totally disagree and that's totally fine. We disagree because we look at them for different things with different expectations. No, I don't disagree. I usually agree. It's just right now, I think the GFS is having a bit of a time with anything past about 6-7 days. I don't really look at the Euro because you guys usually do a good job of telling us what it says........plus I'm too lazy to look at tropical tidbits. It may be doing much better. I'm glad to see those last 3 runs with the AO index. I just hope it can sustain itself. BTW............I wrote the GFS IS doing well ........... not what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 10 day euro looks like day 11-12 could bring some normal winter weather to the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 10 day euro looks like day 11-12 could bring some normal winter weather to the area What, so 40 and rain instead of 65 and rain? That was a bit too snarky, perhaps, I know. But to be more serious I do like how some of the indications are looking in the longer range. It may not be worth much in the end, who knows...but at least a spark of interest for a transition to something a bit better (with all the usual the caveats!). Quick look at the GEFS mean toward the end of the period doesn't look half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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