WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Ok, the mid range now takes us to December. Let's hope for better luck this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 We can probably just post in the panic room for the first 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 We can probably just post in the panic room for the first 10 days of the month. No panic yet. If things still look putrid in mid Jan. Then maybe. I still feel we cash in on a big costal this year. Like you said no nickel and dime this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 We can probably just post in the panic room for the first 10 days of the month. Let's just cancel it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 We probably will be warmer than last couple of winters. I would imaging we see more rain than anything else. We probably have a slightly better than average chance at seeing a HECS. If we get a blocking pattern in January or February you can pretty much lock in a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 0z GFS was interesting last night. LR shows some promise if it comes to pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 0z GFS was interesting last night. LR shows some promise if it comes to pass You new around here? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I cancelled winter when I moved 40 miles south this year...no panic here...I'm expecting a shutout down here in the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Euro weeklies looked pretty bad. Maybe a window final third of Dec but I wouldn't be shocked if that gets pushed back based on what the pattern looks like prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 AO looks firmly positive through December & Alleutian Low in horrible spot. Time to punt December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 You new around here? Sent from my iPhone I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Even the Canadian can't save us unless you like deform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I thought maybe we would see a sneaky chance around the 5th of Dec... but that chance looks dead... 12z EURO h5 pattern is ugly as well... sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Even the Canadian can't save us unless you like deform rain. Don't know why you're trying to be a killjoy. That 998mb powerhouse will make its own cold air. Start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 The way the long range ensemble have looked for this coming week remind me of how December evolved last year. We had a crappy pattern and then it looked like we were going to come out of it around Christmas and go into a favorable pattern and it turned into basically a transitory FROPA. Now this year it was looking like the 1st week of December would be turning into a better pattern and now we're basically getting a couple days of ~climo temps. Guess the moral is that D10+ ensemble means can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Guess the moral is that D10+ ensemble means can be wrong. Yes they can. And often are during volatile patterns. But right now there is really some overwhelming evidence we are going into one of the worst types of winter patterns and similar ones in the past have been pretty damn stubborn. I don't look too far down the road. Dec is looking pretty ghastly right now. And I've accepted the possibility that it could last well into the second half of the month if not longer. Of course I'll start posting about the earliest signs of things breaking down but it might be a while. 94 and 06 are plastered all over cpc analogs right now. Yuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I always have trouble really disliking 94-95 since we had a KU in my part of Jersey . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Bob, the best I can see right now is if the ridging in Canada retrogrades to the northeast and we get some sort of bootleg -nao. Then maybe something can cut underneath. But it's going to be awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Yes they can. And often are during volatile patterns. But right now there is really some overwhelming evidence we are going into one of the worst types of winter patterns and similar ones in the past have been pretty damn stubborn. I don't look too far down the road. Dec is looking pretty ghastly right now. And I've accepted the possibility that it could last well into the second half of the month if not longer. Of course I'll start posting about the earliest signs of things breaking down but it might be a while. 94 and 06 are plastered all over cpc analogs right now. Yuk. And, a week ago, '09 and '02 were in the analogs. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 And, a week ago, '09 and '02 were in the analogs. Meh. For a fleeting glimpse. 94 and 06 have been there for days. I'm confident we are in for an extended rough stretch. A fluke is never off the table but the signal for no cold air anywhere is strong. Canada is going to roast compared to their normals. Mitch won't be posting his favorite crayon temp maps anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 For a fleeting glimpse. 94 and 06 have been there for days. I'm confident we are in for an extended rough stretch. A fluke is never off the table but the signal for no cold air anywhere is strong. Canada is going to roast compared to their normals. Mitch won't be posting his favorite crayon temp maps anytime soon. Frame worthy maps.. almost as bad as it can get for snow hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Frame worthy maps.. almost as bad as it can get for snow hopes. The euro ens 850 anom and actual temp plots for d10-15 are crazy. Outside of the mountains of the west and maybe northern maine, I don't think there will be any snow on the ground anywhere in the conus. The NA snowcover plot around Dec 10th or so might be comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 The euro ens 850 anom and actual temp plots for d10-15 are crazy. Outside of the mountains of the west and maybe northern maine, I don't think there will be any snow on the ground anywhere in the conus. The NA snowcover plot around Dec 10th or so might be comical. Playing around with EPS analog stuff.. actually matches the general progression shown on the weeklies. Perhaps a hint of something in about 3 weeks with ridge shifting north a bit as WxUSAF notes above. But that's a way off.. and there's lots of bad prior. The dates shown don't necessarily scream confidence in snow around here either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Is all d10+ data behind a pay wall?Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Patience and not maps will be what gets weenies through this winter, up and down the coast. No way I get worried on 11/27. Anyways, great deals coming on winter clothes as the retailers always panic. But I guess they have good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Playing around with EPS analog stuff.. actually matches the general progression shown on the weeklies. Perhaps a hint of something in about 3 weeks with ridge shifting north a bit as WxUSAF notes above. But that's a way off.. and there's lots of bad prior. The dates shown don't necessarily scream confidence in snowLol. Ooph in those dates. It's easily possible to get a trough in the east at any time but until our source region primes itself with at the very least only slightly above normal I'm pretty skeptical. Central Canada looks to be basking in +10-15C anoms @ h85 down the line. A trough won't get it done in Dec with those kind of midlevels in the area that spawn our hp's. Otoh- back the low heights in the GOA west and it can get cold in Canada without much trouble. No matter which way you shake it the advertised pattern will require time to get right. It's one thing when we say "cold air is bottled up in Canada". It another when there is no cold air in Canada. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Is all d10+ data behind a pay wall? Save your money unless you're a masochist. Or just look at the Gefs and imagine it warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Wish I could be put into some kind of Sci-Fi sleep hibernation until end of January. December looks like an absolute wash right now. My god the pattern showing up for the first few weeks of December looks like an Mid-April pattern on a lot of progs. No cold air in sight and bowling balls marching across the nation. When you get closed ULLs to your east and the lowest heights aren't below freezing, in December, you know you got a major problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 After looking at the h5 patters on the EURO and GFS in the LR: Imagine the pizza is the h5 pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Borrowed this from the SNE forum (credit Dendrite)... terrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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