December 2015 Discussion

[Jonger]

Most of the fog is limited to areas below 700 feet elevation.

 

At least the worst of it.

[mississaugasnow]

Just to put the warm up coming this week into perspective.

 

Average temps for KBUF

 

Dec 11th

 

High: 37.3

Low: 25.4

 

Dec 12th

 

High: 37

Low: 25.1

 

Dec 13th

 

High: 36.6

Low: 24.8

 

The predicted temps for next weekend are near 60 with lows in the upper 40s. Average temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above normal for highs and overnight lows. Some crazy stuff.

 

WHILE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP BOOST

TEMPS TOWARD 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE /IN

WHICH 06/12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLES BUILD TO NEAR +2SD/ WOULD MAKE 60S A

POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

Pretty excited for the warmth. I wonder how long Buffalo goes without seeing measurable snow. Looks good for another 7-10 days so we might be pushing into mid-late December. Toronto has already recorded roughly 0.25 inches of snow so we can't join you guys in the snowless drought (on paper) 

[Powerball]

Lol at the little jackpot over Detroit. Hopefully it lasts all winter haha. It's a bit odd though as while we all did well with the Nov 21st snowstorm, this area was the least hardest hit. A few other dusting since buy that's it. Areas to our NW got a ton of snow with that storm and do not average that much more.

 

I'm not sure about that.

 

Some have mentioned the possibility that elevated areas of the Glacial Ridge and the Irish Hills average anywhere from 10" to 30" more snow than Detroit proper (and there may be some truth to that based on reports we've been getting from dmc76). We just don't have any official reporting stations in the aforementioned corridor to confirm if that's actually the case. 

[Geos]

Freezing fog is developing here. Light fog currently, but visibility has been dropping slowly.

 

The case of the Irish Hills and Glacial ridge is an interesting one. I'm suppose that higher area catches more snowfall in westerly flow situations. A little extra moisture from Lake Michigan gets deposited there.

 

It's a glacial map, but it tells the elevation story quiet nicely. There's about a 500 ft. elevation difference between NW Oakland county and the Detroit River.

Too bad there isn't an official reporting station in that area.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty excited for the warmth. I wonder how long Buffalo goes without seeing measurable snow. Looks good for another 7-10 days so we might be pushing into mid-late December. Toronto has already recorded roughly 0.25 inches of snow so we can't join you guys in the snowless drought (on paper) 

 

I think we go until at least the 15th/16th without any snow which would be beating the record by nearly 2 weeks. It will basically be an unbeatable record since the last one held for 116 years. I also expect to see some record warm lake Erie waters this week. If we're going to have weather like this, mine as well break some records and enjoy it.

[Stebo]

I'm not sure about that.

 

Some have mentioned the possibility that elevated areas of the Glacial Ridge and the Irish Hills average anywhere from 10" to 30" more snow than Detroit proper (and there may be some truth to that based on reports we've been getting from dmc76). We just don't have any official reporting stations in the aforementioned corridor to confirm if that's actually the case. 

Actually you do, the weather service office. Just need to get a comparison of what they have had year to year. They have been there since 1995, so there is at least 19 years of data.

[harrisale]

Pretty excited for the warmth. I wonder how long Buffalo goes without seeing measurable snow. Looks good for another 7-10 days so we might be pushing into mid-late December. Toronto has already recorded roughly 0.25 inches of snow so we can't join you guys in the snowless drought (on paper) 

 

In terms of meteorological winter (starting Dec 1), it looks like futility here for a while. Thinking we could even go until the 20th without measurable snow.

 

Strong signal for a Friday-Saturday burner coming up this week.

 

[Powerball]

Actually you do, the weather service office. Just need to get a comparison of what they have had year to year. They have been there since 1995, so there is at least 19 years of data.

 

I meant official as in a first order reporting station (which I don't believe the NWS office is).

 

But the ~20 years of stats from there my certainly be useful enough.

[Powerball]

Freezing fog is developing here. Light fog currently, but visibility has been dropping slowly.

 

The case of the Irish Hills and Glacial ridge is an interesting one. I'm suppose that higher area catches more snowfall in westerly flow situations. A little extra moisture from Lake Michigan gets deposited there.

 

It's a glacial map, but it tells the elevation story quiet nicely. There's about a 500 ft. elevation difference between NW Oakland county and the Detroit River.

Too bad there isn't an official reporting station in that area.

 

 

Those regions also benefit from an additional boost in lift via upsloping during synoptic snowstorms. 

 

As a result, I recall dmc76 mentioning that he's seen numerous 12"+ events over the last 15 years (versus just the 2 at DTW). 

[michsnowfreak]

I meant official as in a first order reporting station (which I don't believe the NWS office is).

 

But the ~20 years of stats from there my certainly be useful enough.

Its overall estimated that White Lake averages a foot more than DTW, maybe a little more. But like everything else and as has been discussed so frequently, the lopsided winters of the past several years have put a snafu in that estimate, and theres already such a limited database (20 years) to see what is really average. Sure most winters will have a snowfall or two that target Detroit-south, but the snowstorm parade that has often targeted DTW-south and left the north burbs with scraps in recent years is really an oddity. Or at least should I say, it is not the norm that I grew up with.

 

In the 20 years records have been kept, Detroit has seen as much as 7.4" MORE than White Lake (2010-11) & as much as 38.5" LESS than White Lake (2003-04).

 

In the 9 years from 2000-01 thru 2008-09, DTW averaged 47.3", while White Lake averaged 71.1".

 

In the past 6 years (2009-10 thru 2014-15), DTW averaged 54.8", while White Lake averaged 54.2"

 

White Lake still does better with snowcover days overall, but the frequency of snowstorms/snowfalls jackpotting/targeting the southern areas of SE MI has noticably increased, as well as LES making it further east.

[Geos]

Those regions also benefit from an additional boost in lift via upsloping during synoptic snowstorms. 

 

As a result, I recall dmc76 mentioning that he's seen numerous 12"+ events over the last 15 years (versus just the 2 at DTW). 

 

Ok. I started wondering if that area was too far from the lake to make a difference.

 

Makes we wonder about the snow bubble around here. I've had 18 snowstorms at or above 10" since the winter of 98-99. Here I think it might have to do with the added lake moisture in synoptic events combined that I am away from the urban heat island.

[Hoosier]

Ok. I started wondering if that area was too far from the lake to make a difference.

Makes we wonder about the snow bubble around here. I've had 18 snowstorms at or above 10" since the winter of 98-99. Here I think it might have to do with the added lake moisture in synoptic events combined that I am away from the urban heat island.

I think you're right on. Perhaps some luck thrown in too. Chicago area in general is one of the better places to be in the Midwest for big dogs given the added boost from the lake that frequently occurs.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Fog has really picked up, no DFA yet

[Geos]

I think you're right on. Perhaps some luck thrown in too. Chicago area in general is one of the better places to be in the Midwest for big dogs given the added boost from the lake that frequently occurs.

 

I'll have to go back and look and see what the winds were during those big events. My guess is that there was an onshore component more often than not.

 

Fog has become denser. Down to 0.75 mile visibility. Already below guidance, 26°.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

IWXs 1 AM aviation update mentions how the fog is thicker in there Michigan counties then in Northeast Illinois... And yet theres no headlines.

Fog is as bad as usual this weekend now, with slick spots now.

[Chicago Storm]

IWXs 1 AM aviation update mentions how the fog is thicker in there Michigan counties then in Northeast Illinois... And yet theres no headlines.

Fog is as bad as usual this weekend now, with slick spots now.

Fog is definitely worse in NE. IL than the IWX CWA currently, based on OBS.

 

In NE. IL vis ranges from 1 3/4M to 1/8M, outside of the immediate metro. In the IWA CWA the range is 1 to 10M.

 

Not even headline worthy in the IWX CWA as of now.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

It's less than a mile visibility IMBY, continuing to drop. If it continues on this trend it will be advisory tier at 330 or 4.

[cyclone77]

Dense fog here at 30 degrees, but have been as low as 28 in the last hour.  

[A-L-E-K]

saw a very healthy adult coyote this morning right on Foster in the city.

 

by the time i got my phone out of my coat and snapped the pic, he was lost in the fog

[josh_4184]

Freezing fog is developing here. Light fog currently, but visibility has been dropping slowly.

 

The case of the Irish Hills and Glacial ridge is an interesting one. I'm suppose that higher area catches more snowfall in westerly flow situations. A little extra moisture from Lake Michigan gets deposited there.

 

It's a glacial map, but it tells the elevation story quiet nicely. There's about a 500 ft. elevation difference between NW Oakland county and the Detroit River.

Too bad there isn't an official reporting station in that area.

 

Cool image, amazing to see the gegraphical differences in Michigan. Also really shows how areas in NWL get the added LES from elevation. My house is almost 1400' in elevation, just imagine if Lake Michigan was about 100 miles wider eas to west. Anyway back on topic not much fog in my area this morning. Weekend weather was great as far as getting some more otuside work done on the new house that we would normally have to be pushing off to around May. Hit 49 on Saturday, Sunday was a bit chillier but still beautiful sunshine all day another rarity around here in the winter months. 

[slow poke]

Its overall estimated that White Lake averages a foot more than DTW, maybe a little more. But like everything else and as has been discussed so frequently, the lopsided winters of the past several years have put a snafu in that estimate, and theres already such a limited database (20 years) to see what is really average. Sure most winters will have a snowfall or two that target Detroit-south, but the snowstorm parade that has often targeted DTW-south and left the north burbs with scraps in recent years is really an oddity. Or at least should I say, it is not the norm that I grew up with.

 

In the 20 years records have been kept, Detroit has seen as much as 7.4" MORE than White Lake (2010-11) & as much as 38.5" LESS than White Lake (2003-04).

 

In the 9 years from 2000-01 thru 2008-09, DTW averaged 47.3", while White Lake averaged 71.1".

 

In the past 6 years (2009-10 thru 2014-15), DTW averaged 54.8", while White Lake averaged 54.2"

 

White Lake still does better with snowcover days overall, but the frequency of snowstorms/snowfalls jackpotting/targeting the southern areas of SE MI has noticably increased, as well as LES making it further east.

From the NWS White Lake's media page: "Average seasonal snowfall at Detroit Metropolitan Airport equals 41 inches. However, average annual snowfall near the office location is 60 - 70 inches."  I remember reading a few years back that they average around 70" of snow per season at the White Lake office. Like power ball says, that matches up well with what dmc76 and others say they get per season that are north and west of Detroit in the "hills". The White Lake office sits at approximately 1050' elevation which is around 400' higher then Detroit. I always felt that the area north east of White Lake is prone to getting even more snow than that on average. In extreme northern Oakland and extreme southern Lapeer county is where you get into the 1200' to even pushing 1300' (on top of Mt Christie) elevation ground. I would bet money that this area sees 75" - 80" per season. It's amazing what a few hundred feet in elevation can do to temps and snowfall. Our old house in Metamora (southern Lapeer county) sat on top of a hill at 1175' of elevetion. It was crazy sometimes to see the difference in snowfall between my house and place of work down in the southern Oakland county area.

[weatherbo]

From the NWS White Lake's media page: "Average seasonal snowfall at Detroit Metropolitan Airport equals 41 inches. However, average annual snowfall near the office location is 60 - 70 inches."  I remember reading a few years back that they average around 70" of snow per season at the White Lake office. Like power ball says, that matches up well with what dmc76 and others say they get per season that are north and west of Detroit in the "hills". The White Lake office sits at approximately 1050' elevation which is around 400' higher then Detroit. I always felt that the area north east of White Lake is prone to getting even more snow than that on average. In extreme northern Oakland and extreme southern Lapeer county is where you get into the 1200' to even pushing 1300' (on top of Mt Christie) elevation ground. I would bet money that this area sees 75" - 80" per season. It's amazing what a few hundred feet in elevation can do to temps and snowfall. Our old house in Metamora (southern Lapeer county) sat on top of a hill at 1175' of elevetion. It was crazy sometimes to see the difference in snowfall between my house and place of work down in the southern Oakland county area.

I remember chatting with a met at APX when I lived in northern lower, and iirc he said you can add 8" per season for every 100' climb in elevation from the coast, inland to Gaylord. Using that math does support your estimation.

[Geos]

Pea soup fog here. Visibility about 500 feet right now.

[hm8]

saw a very healthy adult coyote this morning right on Foster in the city.

by the time i got my phone out of my coat and snapped the pic, he was lost in the fog

Spooky

[A-L-E-K]

Spooky

 

i thought it was someone walking a German Shepard and did a double take.

 

dude was totally unfazed by my presence and just vanished into the park.

 

a little research reveals urban coyotes are super common and feast on all the rats and whatnot.

[A-L-E-K]

exciting times

 

http://national.suntimes.com/national-world-news/7/72/542740/hybrid-wolves-chicago-coywolf

[RogueWaves]

I would say around 130" or so. Yeah the last two years have been some of the best in quite awhile for Southern Erie county with one lake snow event after the other. I have a board I use in the back for measuring snow and measure whenever I am at home every 6 hours, if I'm not at home my wife works from home and does the measuring. If I moved just 10-15 minutes southeast my yearly average would go up near 200", 30 minutes south/southwest it goes up to 200-250"+ annually. I choose this area because it can receive some of the highest rates of snowfall anywhere in the country. 10" per hour was received last year in one of the bands just north of my location. It's also a really convenient location for getting to most places in Buffalo in 15-20 minutes and the Town of Hamburg has loads of shops/restaurants/etc...It was voted the best place to live in WNY last year.

 

 

Wow! I knew that area could get a ton of snow at once but never realized that there were areas that AVERAGED that much. Maybe Tug Hill, but south of BUF is a bit surprising. Well, you're bound to get some more good stuff when a colder pattern finally hits. Good Luck!

[josh_4184]

Wow! I knew that area could get a ton of snow at once but never realized that there were areas that AVERAGED that much. Maybe Tug Hill, but south of BUF is a bit surprising. Well, you're bound to get some more good stuff when a colder pattern finally hits. Good Luck!

I agree am a little surprised that those areas off Erie get that kind of annual snowfall every year that’s impressive and considerably more than my area. I knew Ontario areas do well especially with higher elevation and Ontario really never freezes like Erie. Amazing how the great lakes impact areas around them.

[Geos]

exciting times

 

http://national.suntimes.com/national-world-news/7/72/542740/hybrid-wolves-chicago-coywolf

 

Wow, I didn't even know there was an animal called a Coywolf.

 

See Coyotes a couple times a week around here. Sometimes in the yard.

Fog is lifting, but the cloud deck isn't.

[Stebo]

Another foggy day today here. Down to 1/4SM at DET and 1SM at DTW.