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December 2015 Discussion


Hoosier

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Just saw some snow flurries in the fog here in Athens. Very fine, very light, but maybe the second time in my life that I've seen that in person.

 

NWS ILN posted some pretty cool pics of hoar frost at their office Saturday morning on Facebook. My personal favorite is probably the spider web covered in the stuff. Apparently there was some very spotty light snow in parts of SW OH Friday night/Saturday morning in the fog too.

 

https://www.facebook.com/NWSWilmingtonOH/timeline/story?ut=43&wstart=0&wend=1451635199&hash=-7390641805794768704&pagefilter=3

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The 00z and 06z GFs both show what I think would be likeable scenarios for a fair amount of the subforum, as far as snowstorm potential mid-month.

 

It's been a LONG time since we've seen what the 00z GFS in particular has from 240hr to 276hr.

 

 

There has been no shortage of fantasy range gfs app runners and ohio cutters.   I don't think a day has gone by where one hasn't shown up on at least one of the 4 daily runs.   

 

But who knows, we always have that blind nut squirrel thing to hope for.

 

edit:   and today's 12z version is a 984 low over Chicago with widespread fantasy backlash snows.    

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Shaping up to be a banner December for the n. plains and extreme western/northern extents of the sub. Meanwhile we'll keep the bbq fired up down here in the southeast flanks in case anyone wants to stop by for a beer and a burger. :)

I'm game for a ice cold Budweiser, and a mushroom Swiss burger!

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There has been no shortage of fantasy range gfs app runners and ohio cutters.   I don't think a day has gone by where one hasn't shown up on at least one of the 4 daily runs.   

 

But who knows, we always have that blind nut squirrel thing to hope for.

 

edit:   and today's 12z version is a 984 low over Chicago with widespread fantasy backlash snows.    

 

I'd say the potential for that type of cutter to come to fruition this time is above average, given the strength of the ULJ and the fact that we have a formidable STJ to work with.

 

Another thing to consider is typically, these lead systems (the one some are tracking for severe weather potential) push the baroclinic zone far enough south to favor a further SE placement/track of subsequent system(s).

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I'd say the potential for that type of cutter to come to fruition this time is above average, given the strength of the ULJ and the fact that we have a formidable STJ to work with.

 

Another thing to consider is typically, these lead systems (the one some are tracking for severe weather potential) push the baroclinic zone far enough south to favor a further SE placement/track of subsequent system(s).

 

Always a possibility, it just seems these storms head nw, wind up, send thru the resulting front, and then we cool down and immediately recover to mild again.  There's no staying power to the cold...and it's not even that cold to begin with.  Would like to see the arctic hp factory set up in w./c. canada but not happening with the pac firehose.  

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130" annually would be a nice tally to have.

What's the story with that island of 80-100" to your ESE? Higher patch of terrain I'm guessing.

 

Noticing the fog reports coming in to my south and it seems to be making progress northwards.

Pretty cool image on Detroit's tallest buildings above^.

 

I am not sure about that spot, I don't see anything different about that location.

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Next week gets warmer and nicer each day. I haven't seen a true snowflake yet this year. ^_^
 
Monday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 46.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
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Next week gets warmer and nicer each day. I haven't seen a true snowflake yet this year. ^_^
 
Monday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 46.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

 

 

look on the bright side, that big ole kettle that makes LES is boiling and ready.

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Thanks to more of a downsloping wind, Detroit proper and the eastern suburbs managed to mix out the fog/stratus today (by late morning/midday), with temps getting into the low/mid 40s.

 

Meanwhile, temps are still stuck in the mid-30s in the tiny stratus of lingering fog/stratus around Ann Arbor. 

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130" annually would be a nice tally to have.

What's the story with that island of 80-100" to your ESE? Higher patch of terrain I'm guessing.

 

Noticing the fog reports coming in to my south and it seems to be making progress northwards.

Pretty cool image on Detroit's tallest buildings above^.

 

Based on the angle, it looks like that pic was taken from the top of the Renaissance Center (Marriot Hotel).

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I am not sure about that spot, I don't see anything different about that location.

 

Yeah it's not the elevation. Luck of the draw I guess.

 

 

Hopefully you get some snow for Christmas! Latest snowfall departure map - last 30 days.

 

post-7-0-99257500-1449434995.png

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Just to put the warm up coming this week into perspective.

 

Average temps for KBUF

 

Dec 11th

 

High: 37.3

Low: 25.4

 

Dec 12th

 

High: 37

Low: 25.1

 

Dec 13th

 

High: 36.6

Low: 24.8

 

The predicted temps for next weekend are near 60 with lows in the upper 40s. Average temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above normal for highs and overnight lows. Some crazy stuff.

 

WHILE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPS TOWARD 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE /IN
WHICH 06/12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLES BUILD TO NEAR +2SD/ WOULD MAKE 60S A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

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...Aaaand they finally hoisted a dense fog advisory after 3 straight hours of 1/16th of a mile visibility at DTW.

Yeah it should have been up a while ago, it was pretty obvious we were going to have more fog issues tonight. Hopefully tomorrow we get out of this fog pattern but it doesn't look too likely.

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Yeah it's not the elevation. Luck of the draw I guess.

new-york-state-map.gif

Hopefully you get some snow for Christmas! Latest snowfall departure map - last 30 days.

post-7-0-99257500-1449434995.png

Lol at the little jackpot over Detroit. Hopefully it lasts all winter haha. It's a bit odd though as while we all did well with the Nov 21st snowstorm, this area was the least hardest hit. A few other dusting since buy that's it. Areas to our NW got a ton of snow with that storm and do not average that much more.
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