Jonger Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 A little OT but here's a loop of that 12/24/97 storm that was mentioned yesterday. I remember the flakes being huge for a while...like mini snow bombs...which radar seems to back up. 1997.gif I believe that was snow to rain on Xmas eve. I remember something around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 My bad, Sally. Already know you're down for a DAB for Wednesday morning NAM continues to be bullish with 1-2" somewhere across northern IL and the Euro has around an inch. Could be a decent little burst of SHSN moving across the area. I think I went up to an inch in spots in grids - favored NAM/RGEM for smaller scale details (though not as bullish) but Euro came in pretty similar. Will probably be mainly grassy surfaces because it won't get all that cold tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 A little OT but here's a loop of that 12/24/97 storm that was mentioned yesterday. I remember the flakes being huge for a while...like mini snow bombs...which radar seems to back up. 1997.gif 2/26/13 was similar to that storm, but it set up shop a little further SE. I recall non-stop, straight-up cottonballs with 2/26/13 for a couple hours after transitioning from rain/sleet (but the snow only added up to about 2-4"). It was the best plaster job we had in a long time until this recent November snowstorm. I would love to have another one of these storms soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 End of the 18Z GFS hints at the coldest temps so far this winter and snow. HOPEFUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 End of the 18Z GFS hints at the coldest temps so far this winter and snow. HOPEFUL. you might want to copy and paste the above on your clipboard. It will save a lot of additional typing in the next couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 No. Maybe for more sustained winter...but absolutely a decent storm can happen in an overall warm december. I agree. Though the immediate shoreline communities of the Buffalo-Toronto corridor will not be seeing a significant snowstorm in December, that I can pretty much guarantee. The lakes are way to warm and the way both cities are situated (especially Toronto) any storm that forms south enough to put us in the snow zone will also throw east to northeast winds right off the lake eating into totals substantially or just giving us plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I agree. Though the immediate shoreline communities of the Buffalo-Toronto corridor will not be seeing a significant snowstorm in December, that I can pretty much guarantee. The lakes are way to warm and the way both cities are situated (especially Toronto) any storm that forms south enough to put us in the snow zone will also throw east to northeast winds right off the lake eating into totals substantially or just giving us plain rain. I didn't think I had a shot at double digit totals with the snowstorm on the 20-21st because of a lake that was running between 47-50°, but it happened! Anything is possible. But a system coming out of the west or northwest would keep that marine influence off shore more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 I didn't think I had a shot at double digit totals with the snowstorm on the 20-21st because of a lake that was running between 47-50°, but it happened! Anything is possible. But a system coming out of the west or northwest would keep that marine influence off shore more than likely. You are several miles inland though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 You are several miles inland though, right? 4.25-4.5 miles inland. But even downtown Waukegan got 11.5". The heavy rates did help no doubt - and the fact the wind wasn't ripping off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I didn't think I had a shot at double digit totals with the snowstorm on the 20-21st because of a lake that was running between 47-50°, but it happened! Anything is possible. But a system coming out of the west or northwest would keep that marine influence off shore more than likely. We had a 25" snowstorm in early/mid October with a 62 degree lake. You can get snow with any lake temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z GFS really drops in the artic air by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z GFS really drops in the artic air by mid month. lol 5% chance at verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 lol 5% chance at verifying. Not to really dissect an hr 384 prog, but those 850 mb temps, except up by INL, are really not all that cold for December for most of the subforum.Ultimately you're right though, little chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Not to really dissect an hr 384 prog, but those 850 mb temps, except up by INL, are really not all that cold for December for most of the subforum. Ultimately you're right though, little chance of verifying. Well I mean it has to get cold eventually right? This set-up would just be different than a PAC dominated El Nino flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Well I mean it has to get cold eventually right? This set-up would just be different than a PAC dominated El Nino flow.Yeah I'd be surprised if we go the rest of the month after the brief shot here tomorrow night and Wednesday without any typical December cold. The lakes will stay quite warm so if you get a nice mid and upper pattern to set up for a few days, the LES belts could cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Sheesh that is a monster bomb the GFS has there for entertainment purposes. Problem with this kind of stuff in a Nino like this is you often have southern stream waves that wipe the Gulf clean of moisture before anything of that kind of magnitude can eject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 5% verifying on the date. Will eventually get an Arctic blast though - that's guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z Euro has the looks of colder air spilling in as well as a big storm developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Yes, but I have serious storm thread cred, especially among the northern IL folks. By the way, I got dibs on Dec 20-25. If angry is right, Hoosier is going to nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z Euro has the looks of colder air spilling in as well as a big storm developing. would rather have an arctic high in place of that 992 low over MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 would rather have an arctic high in place of that 992 low over MN GFS says what low? Lol at snapshot 240 hr ops runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Heading into December I see no real difference in the pattern we are in now. Storms and rain are about, with some portions flirting with freezing creating a brief snow with decent rates. Depending on the path of the low some cash in nice, others get rain. Followed by another warm up and repeat.... Near the end of the month @ Hoosier's mark of change, I agree with the pattern breaking down and more sustained cold mixing into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z Euro has the looks of colder air spilling in as well as a big storm developing. The GFS starts to have a more trough-like look to it near the end of the run. If it stays that way, that's the real question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Grab the shades fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Exact temps aside, the 2nd half of December does look to become very active either way. Impressive amount of jet energy crashing into the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Interesting write up for the week of 8-12 from GRR: .WEEK TWO FORECAST...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUETHROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS OF A BIG CHANGEIN OUR WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND (SAT THE 12TH OFDECEMBER). A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SIBERIA HEADSEAST AND BRINGS ONE OF THOSE EAST ASIAN JET FEATURES OVER KOREATHURSDAY (THIS WEEK) WITH WINDS A JET STREAM LEVELS IN THE 170 KNOTTO 190 KNOT RANGE. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOTHERE IS MODEL CONSISTENCE FOR THIS FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TOMOVE EAST BUT REACHES THE DATELINE BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS OF 170 TO190 KNOTS AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL. AS THIS JET CORE REACHES THE WESTCOAST IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME IT PUMPS UP A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HEADIF IT (KEEPS IT WARM AND DRY HERE). WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING TOSOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IS AFTER IT COMES ON SHORE IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME A LARGE UPPER RIDGE (SEEN ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS) BUILDOVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL FORCE A CONSOLIDATION OF THENORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. WHICH MEANS A LARGE SCALE DEEP TROUGHOVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE ASTORMY PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN (BUT STILL WARM BUT RATHERWET). JUST BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WEWILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF COLD AIR AND SNOWY WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Euro continues to put a monster trough in lala land. Although, it's been pretty consistent. My bad if this is considered pointless and/or "hype". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The latest run of the GFS has 938mb near Alaska, 937mb near Iceland, on different days this week. All the warm weather lovers in the East will like this. These kinds of extratropical pressures are unusual for all areas but the Southern Hemisphere/open ocean near Antarctica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We had a 25" snowstorm in early/mid October with a 62 degree lake. You Buffalo can get snow with any lake temperature. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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