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December 2015 Discussion


Hoosier

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Maybe a small western shore (Lake Michigan) LES event Sunday into Monday.  Parameters don't look too impressive at this point.

 

I see the CMC has it pretty good signature at 114 hours. Something to watch. Parameters little better a little farther north. Delta Ts would probably be at least 15°C. A large area of the lake would likely be above 40° still.

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I haven't taken a look, what is the progged wind direction for Chicago and Milwaukee on Sunday and Monday? NE winds are favored around here for LE.

 

15-25° I would say. So NNE.

CMC would have ΔT's up around 18-20°C.

 

gem_T850_ncus_20.png

 

Milwaukee GFS sounding

 

GFS_3_2015123012_F114_43.0000N_88.0000W.

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15-25° I would say. So NNE.

CMC would have ΔT's up around 18-20°C.

 

gem_T850_ncus_20.png

 

Milwaukee GFS sounding

 

GFS_3_2015123012_F114_43.0000N_88.0000W.

 

 

GGEM does seem colder than other models.  Would help a bit obviously.

 

Moisture depth doesn't look too good at this point as models really show things drying out above 850 mb.

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The warmth so far this winter has been ridiculous. I was poking around in the garden earlier and most stuff is still green and has new growth to it. If we don't go below +5F to 0F all winter everything is going to go crazy in the spring. I've noticed every year when we don't go lower than that, which is rare, everything has some extra pep in it's step. Likewise, when we have those crazy winters with multiple -10F to -15F or lower nights like recent years with frigid wind chills, some stuff just doesn't come back as well or is very slow to come up in the spring.

I noticed a Lenten Rose, which usually blooms in the late winter even in the north, has a few flower buds on it already. It still won't bloom until after there's been a long subfreezing period, but I had never seen it start the process so early. Obviously not a native plant, but even most of the native plants were blooming right up until we had that snowstorm in mid-November which was pretty insane in itself.

Looks like we'll be having a brief period of closer to normal temps, which should finally kill back most things for the winter.

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I heard that a geomagnetic storm is about to hit the earth. On the SWPC web site, the KP index is fairly low right now, but they are calling this a level-3 geomagnetic storm. I am thinking there may be some enhanced auroras visible in the Northeast and northern Midwest in the next couple of days.

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The grass is a bit greener, that's the main difference I see between this winter and last winter. Everything else is dead as usual.

The urban heat island really helps in these type of situations. A few degrees here and there is everything, especially on those radiational cooling nights. There's a two USDA Zone difference between downtown Detroit and northern Oakland and Livingston county. Lake St. Clair and Erie probably helps too, it's kinda crazy how the suburbs of Lansing, MI can get 10-15 degrees colder on the coldest nights than the communities around the Sleeping Bear Dunes because of the Lake MI influence.

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