michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I'd say if we're sitting here on January 20 without a transition to more consistent wintry weather or any signs of such on the horizon, then it's time to be concerned. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 December and January are the best winter months IMO. Lately February has been amazing. January has been great. December is hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 December and January are the best winter months IMO. My personal preference is for the bulk of winter to come in those months. I really start itching for spring by the time February comes along. Of course I am down for a big snow at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 My personal preference is for the bulk of winter to come in those months. I really start itching for spring by the time February comes along. Of course I am down for a big snow at any time. Yeah that's how I am as well. I just can't enjoy snowstorms in March as much as December to Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I just want a decent clipper to lay down 2-4" a few days before Christmas to set the holiday spirit. As epic as the winter of 2013-2014 was, it featured a brown Christmas. As Hoosier said, come middle of February, I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Another pre December freak out. Seems like every year some of us (including myself) panic prior to the start of met winter. Have to see what actually happens. Things can change fast. Not really seeing any panic. Personally I'm kind of enjoying the thought of some record highs possibly in December. I enjoy extremes on both sides. If it's gonna be mild, then TORCH, if it's gonna be cold then bring on the snow and ice. I despise seasonably cold and dreary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Not really seeing any panic. Personally I'm kind of enjoying the thought of some record highs possibly in December. I enjoy extremes on both sides. If it's gonna be mild, then TORCH, if it's gonna be cold then bring on the snow and ice. I despise seasonably cold and dreary. Agreed. As I said before, I won't turn down another big dog, but I also won't complain about a relatively warm / snowless winter either after 2 consecutives seasons with deep / extended periods of snowcover and extreme cold (not to mention 3 back-to-back Summers of lackluster heat and severe weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Not really seeing any panic. Personally I'm kind of enjoying the thought of some record highs possibly in December. I enjoy extremes on both sides. If it's gonna be mild, then TORCH, if it's gonna be cold then bring on the snow and ice. I despise seasonably cold and dreary. I've ALWAYS said that. Go big or stay at home either way. I'm all about anomalous events. I feel a lot of us are like that. Meanwhile, Alek be like... euro hinting at a look capable of smashing some local records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Long range looks like we will definitely break the record. Some of the ski country has picked up 10-20 inches but only a trace under 1k ft elevation in the rest of WNY. Amazing given last year at this time you had been up to your ears in snow - literally! Last year winter it took until the end of January to reach over 13". Yeah usually by mid-February I'm itching for spring too. Hopefully the week leading up to Christmas will flip to a winter pattern if not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 ...meanwhile the GFS shows a lack of snow east of Western Wisconsin that will make any snow weenie want to die inside, with "warmth" (enough to prevent snow) up the ying ying... and RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 ...meanwhile the GFS shows a lack of snow east of Western Wisconsin that will make any snow weenie want to die inside, with "warmth" (enough to prevent snow) up the ying ying... and RAINWhat's funny though is seasonal snowfall won't drop below normal to date until around mid-Dec here if we see no measurable snow, & late December for your area. Still, hoping the turnaround happens before christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 There is an under appreciation to how incredible the pattern setting in is. On top of that. Very little snow cover depth has been established in South Central Canada. This graphic is skewed a lot because of latitude. The actual area of below normal heights is much smaller than this graphic shows. This is way worse going into December compared to 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 the weenies are definitely starting to roast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Im not sure how the warm first half of December is underappreciated. Everyone expected it and knew it was coming. The 850 anamolies in canada will be insane, but 850s dont melt snow, surfave temps do. Warm pattern or not, the sensible weather has not been anything like 1997 nor will it be, as has been said multiple times. 1997-98 would actually not have been that bad a winter (here) if not for a record snowless torch Feb, which all indications this winter are that each winter month will get progressively colder, not warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Im not sure how the warm first half of December is underappreciated. Everyone expected it and knew it was coming. The 850 anamolies in canada will be insane, but 850s dont melt snow, surfave temps do. Warm pattern or not, the sensible weather has not been anything like 1997 nor will it be, as has been said multiple times. 1997-98 would actually not have been that bad a winter (here) if not for a record snowless torch Feb, which all indications this winter are that each winter month will get progressively colder, not warmer. Given that the high 850s are in-part due to Chinook winds, it most definitely will translate to the surface. The predictions for a cold Feb are reliant on the PV breaking down. There is still time for this to happen, but it is unusually large and at/near record strength for this time of year, so it's quite an assumption. If you're relying on needle-thread systems like the one we just got (shortwave energy rounding the base of a transient long-wave trough and not getting too sheared), you're on the bad side of the snow "dice", so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looks like a seasonably to slightly below normal shot of cold mid to late next week.... then the burners turn on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 signs that after a last hoorah, the PNA is getting ready to join the indice crap-fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Given that the high 850s are in-part due to Chinook winds, it most definitely will translate to the surface. The predictions for a cold Feb are reliant on the PV breaking down. There is still time for this to happen, but it is unusually large and at/near record strength for this time of year, so it's quite an assumption. If you're relying on needle-thread systems like the one we just got (shortwave energy rounding the base of a transient long-wave trough and not getting too sheared), you're on the bad side of the snow "dice", so to speak. I didn't necessarily mean Feb would be colder than average, rather each winter month would get colder is a good bet. I don't ever rely on anything really. Basically just saying a warm December, especially first half, is of no surprise. Also, 1998s near record February warmth (each winter month warmer than the last) is quite an unusual progression for el nino, regardless of how anomalous the winter was, one way or another. Though I can pretty much guarantee that at my latitude I do not need to rely on "thread the needle" systems all winter, I don't care how warm it is. I've experienced mild winters many times before and they've all had plenty of snow opportunities. Novembers storm was just a nice bonus way to get off and running on the snow season which has 4-5 months to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looks like a seasonably to slightly below normal shot of cold mid to late next week.... then the burners turn on. It definitely does. I don't think I see measurable snow until at least the new year. That would break the record by a month! It definitely coincides with a record strong El Nino which will be weakening but as everyone knows there is a lag time that we get affected by it weakening. This entire winter will be a primarily PAC dominated flow. https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/670601847837745152/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 It definitely does. I don't think I see measurable snow until at least the new year. That would break the record by a month! It definitely coincides with a record strong El Nino which will be weakening but as everyone knows there is a lag time that we get affected by it weakening. This entire winter will be a primarily PAC dominated flow. https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/670601847837745152/photo/1 When is Buffalo's latest? Warm or not it's an awfully bold prediction to say no snow in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 signs that after a last hoorah, the PNA is getting ready to join the indice crap-fest Are you talking about it going to a -PNA because that is more favorable for big storms for this sub forum anyways. That isn't a negative if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 When is Buffalo's latest? Warm or not it's an awfully bold prediction to say no snow in Dec Dec 3 1899 is Buffalos latest for measurable snow. The latest date for 1 inch is January 3rd 1923. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Whatever index stops driving storms into northern British Columbia is the only thing I want to see favorable. Is this the trademark of El Nino, because the same thing screwed 2011-2012 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Dec 3 1899 is Buffalos latest for measurable snow. The latest date for 1 inch is January 3rd 1923.Interesting. 1899-00 was a strong nino. And very backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 There is an under appreciation to how incredible the pattern setting in is. On top of that. Very little snow cover depth has been established in South Central Canada. This graphic is skewed a lot because of latitude. The actual area of below normal heights is much smaller than this graphic shows. This is way worse going into December compared to 1997 The odd thing about 1997-98 was that December was actually the coolest month out of DJF, relative to average (though still warmer than average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 The odd thing about 1997-98 was that December was actually the coolest month out of DJF, relative to average (though still warmer than average).That's what I was saying earlier. This is nothing like 1997. I'm more interested in the pattern towards the Solstice and beyond. Once we get past this ugly pattern. Potential for some very good snowstorms for the next several months. Record snowcover the last 2 years plus a strong nino this year...I went into this winter with a very un-josh like approach. I know not to expect that type of snowcover this year, so bring on the storms.Speaking of. Im headed north to Frankenmuth today. Crazy driving through areas that had 14-16" of snow less than a week ago and absolutely nothing outside some dirty parking lot piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Are you talking about it going to a -PNA because that is more favorable for big storms for this sub forum anyways. That isn't a negative if you ask me. Yeah, I don't see a reason to bet on suppression for the forseeable future. Can never say never with an individual storm but by and large, most storms should tend to run inland/cut. It should be reasonably active in the region even if it's a struggle to get cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Yeah, I don't see a reason to bet on suppression for the forseeable future. Can never say never with an individual storm but by and large, most storms should tend to run inland/cut. It should be reasonably active in the region even if it's a struggle to get cold enough for snow. Yeah give me thread the needle vs suppression. I'd rather have a shot at snow than 40 and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Interesting. 1899-00 was a strong nino. And very backloaded winter. Yeah, looks like we will blow that record out of the water by weeks according to BUF NWS. AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH 360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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