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December 2015 Discussion


Hoosier

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ORD is +12.5F for December. Departure will take a hit in the next few days and then there's the potential big torch lurking in the extended. A finish over 10 degrees above average appears to be well within reach.

Not a huge hit at all, Thursday-Saturday look look average. It's also very likely, for the second straight December, we end the month with 0.00" of snow. Last year be broke our record of the least snowiest December at 0.01".

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True, accept with LES and no base at all and non frozen ground I give the trails about 5 passes with sleds before they turn to mud.

 

I have rode on 20 inches of fresh LES with an unfrozen ground before... Worked fine. Gotta go off trail though.

 

This is almost the same scenario. That's my cousin on the sled. 2012 Renegade Backcountry. Sold that 2 years ago.

 

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Not a huge hit at all, Thursday-Saturday look look average. It's also very likely, for the second straight December, we end the month with 0.00" of snow. Last year be broke our record of the least snowiest December at 0.01".

 

 

Agreed.  I'm figuring it could drop to +10 or so come this weekend.

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Looks like a decent bet there will be some flurries in the air tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening for WI and northern IL into northern IN. Strong but moisture starved upper wave diving southeast was producing light snow/flurries in the Canadian prairies and western ND this afternoon. If NAM is right on slightly better (but still shallow) moisture through the DGZ, could see the ground whiten in spots by late tomorrow if/where the snow showers are a bit more persistent and steadier. The way things are looking, that could conceivably be our last snowflakes of the month.

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It will be below freezing

Soil temperatures are in the mid 40s and the rate of snowfall isn't going to be that heavy unless you are under a snow squall. I don't think there will be that much accumulation unless we get some dominant bands that cross the state and don't fall apart.

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Soil temperatures are in the mid 40s and the rate of snowfall isn't going to be that heavy unless you are under a snow squall. I don't think there will be that much accumulation unless we get some dominant bands that cross the state and don't fall apart.

 

I'm not expecting anything other than a possible salt in case of a overnight refreeze on hard surfaces. Even this risk will more than likely be marginal.

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Geos, are you still contending with allergies? I've had general stuffiness and sneezing the last couple days. I hope it's short-term allergies rather than a cold for the second time in a month.

 

Up until today I was yeah. The cold and night below freezing really helps. That's exactly how I felt.

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Looks like a decent bet there will be some flurries in the air tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening for WI and northern IL into northern IN. Strong but moisture starved upper wave diving southeast was producing light snow/flurries in the Canadian prairies and western ND this afternoon. If NAM is right on slightly better (but still shallow) moisture through the DGZ, could see the ground whiten in spots by late tomorrow if/where the snow showers are a bit more persistent and steadier. The way things are looking, that could conceivably be our last snowflakes of the month.

 

Would be nice to see some snow again. :snowing:

 

NAM suite and the WRF models picking up on that.

 

nam4km_asnow_ncus_13.png

 

wrf-nmm_asnow_ncus_48.png

 

Kalamazoo and Battle Creek in for a surprise!?

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Lake effect snow warning for the Kewaunaw. 8-15"

Drop in the bucket for them.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
948 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

MIZ001-003-181100-
/O.CON.KMQT.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151219T1200Z/
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK
948 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* PLAN ON PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE MOST PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN TWIN
LAKES AND CALUMET. SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM TWIN LAKES TO CALUMET AND MOHAWK.

* WEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES WILL CAUSE PERIODS
OF WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

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