RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 ...and then right back to torching after thatBingo. I don't buy what the operational GFS is showing toward Christmas eve for a second. GEFS says torch on, +6 to +8 Celsius average 2m anomalies from 12/19 to 12/24 and +8 to +10 anomalies from 12/24 to 12/29. Canadian ensembles are not quite as warm, but still well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 If we get lucky with timing there might be a (probably brief) cooldown to something closer to seasonal or not crazy warm around Christmas day, but I wouldn't bet on it and it could end up being delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 If we get lucky with timing there might be a (probably brief) cooldown to something closer to seasonal or not crazy warm around Christmas day, but I wouldn't bet on it and it could end up being delayed. I will go with after, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 So far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Good lord, the Lake of the Woods area is an inferno! High of 57° today - early. Got some breaks of sun today, especially between 3-4pm. Christmas day is looking chilly right now on the GFS with even some snow in the western part of the subforum - wouldn't that be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Here you go Bo, the top 15 analogs for this weekend. The top analog for here is last Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Beat our record by 7 degrees here. 71!! Select daily record high temperatures for December 14, 2015: Allentown: 68° (old record: 60°, 2001) Atlantic City: 65° (tied record: 65°, 1929) Baltimore: 71° (tied record: 71°, 1929) Bridgeport: 58° (tied record: 58°, 1991) Buffalo: 71° (old record: 64°, 1901) Islip: 58° (tied record: 58°, 1991) Newark: 64° (old record: 63°, 2001) Philadelphia: 70° (old record: 69°, 1881) Raleigh: 75° (old record: 74°, 1918) Rochester: 69° (old record: 62°, 1901) Washington, DC: 69° (old record: 67°, 2001) Watertown: 67° (old record: 65°, 1901) Wilmington, DE: 69° (old record: 63°, 2001) .CLIMATE...DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SMASHED TODAY AS UNSEASONABLEWARMTH REACHED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.BUFFALO...HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SETBACK IN 1901. THIS IS ALSO THE 2ND WARMEST DECEMBER TEMPERATUREEVER RECORDED. THE WARMEST DECEMBER TEMP WAS 74 IN 1982.ROCHESTER...HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 69 SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD OF 62SET BACK IN 1901. THERE HAVE BEEN 3 TIMES IN HISTORY THETEMPERATURE REACHED 70 IN DECEMBER AND SEVERAL YEARS WITH 69...MAKING TODAY A TIE FOR THE FOURTH WARMEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURE ONRECORD. THE WARMEST DECEMBER TEMP WAS 72 IN 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I look at the NOHRSC snow depth map every couple days just to see how the snow pack is doing. I know this map is always overdone, but why is it showing a stripe of moderate snow depth through Minneapolis? How is this map even generated and can it be considered reliable anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I look at the NOHRSC snow depth map every couple days just to see how the snow pack is doing. I know this map is always overdone, but why is it showing a stripe of moderate snow depth through Minneapolis? How is this map even generated and can it be considered reliable anymore? image.jpeg Overdone is an understatement. There is exactly 0" on the ground in the Twin Cities. There was a very minor accumulation yesterday of about an inch in extreme SE MN into W WI, but nothing like this map is showing. I'd be giddy if that map was reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Overdone is an understatement. There is exactly 0" on the ground in the Twin Cities. There was a very minor accumulation yesterday of about an inch in extreme SE MN into W WI, but nothing like this map is showing. I'd be giddy if that map was reality... I don't think there's anything around Omaha either. Whatever makes that snow depth map must use a NAM forecast clown map as its data source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I look at the NOHRSC snow depth map every couple days just to see how the snow pack is doing. I know this map is always overdone, but why is it showing a stripe of moderate snow depth through Minneapolis? How is this map even generated and can it be considered reliable anymore?image.jpeg Yeah this system is almost all automated and based off of "logical guesses" by a computer. There is no snow cover in eastern Nebraska this morning. Snow cover in western KS may be correct still. I found that this experimental site isn't that great at snowfall after a marginal event. Anyways, feels more like December today - cloudy and chilly, near 40°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Good lord, the Lake of the Woods area is an inferno! I have been lurking here for a while...but since you mention my backyard figured I would just confirm it has been an inferno here. The high temps have been warm, but its the ludicrously mild low temps that are causing it. Mn side of Lake of the Woods and Rainy River still open water this late in the year is getting surreal. My wife is originally from Chicago suburbs and she is loving the Illinois like winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I had to look up Lake of the Woods on the map. Wasn't sure where that was. Welcome to the board XfireLOW. Open water in December is getting a little surreal here, I can only imagine what it's like up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I have been lurking here for a while...but since you mention my backyard figured I would just confirm it has been an inferno here. The high temps have been warm, but its the ludicrously mild low temps that are causing it. Mn side of Lake of the Woods and Rainy River still open water this late in the year is getting surreal. My wife is originally from Chicago suburbs and she is loving the Illinois like winter weather. Welcome to the forum first of all. That's pretty incredible that Lake of the Woods is open still. Most Decembers lakes and most rivers are frozen over or mostly frozen over here. Now today is more winter like, only made it to 42°. Of course that would be still really mild 500 miles further north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The last few days of December (as in Christmas and immediately afterwards) do look somewhat interesting, as far as significant storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Picked up about an inch of snow overnight. With temps surging into the mid to upper 30s, the snow is almost gone already. Most people probably won't even know it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It snowed a few hours ago, now a band of convection moving in from the south. Lightning strikes are increasing. Wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Keweenaw is going to get pounded with w flow lake effect. Lake is primed. Can't wait until it's my turn! not a bad looking forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Getting thunder snow/sleet here in Bloomington Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Getting thunder snow/sleet here in Bloomington ImageUploadedByTapatalk1450277229.333520.jpg Sent from my iPhone Awesome. Looks like a mid summer t-storm moving in. Dark as night right now.Edit: Heavy snow and plenty of vivid CG strikes within the last 20 minutes. Pure rippage. Half dollar monster flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Awesome. Looks like a mid summer t-storm moving in. Dark as night right now. Edit: Heavy snow and plenty of vivid CG strikes within the last 20 minutes. Pure rippage. Half dollar monster flakes. Video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Keweenaw is going to get pounded with w flow lake effect. Lake is primed. Can't wait until it's my turn! MQT_Snow.png not a bad looking forecast Untitled.png Northern shores east of you towards paradise may do okay as well. Not much for NWL really need a NW or WNW flow for my area. To bad as lakes are pretty warm still for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 What a depressing graphic as well, last year at this point we were about +70" over normal, this year -30" that's about a 100" difference in one year from November - December for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Video? Unfortunately no video. Was a wild 20 minutes though. I work on the east side of Mpls. Did it not T-snow where you are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Keweenaw is going to get pounded with w flow lake effect. Lake is primed. Can't wait until it's my turn! MQT_Snow.png not a bad looking forecast Untitled.png It's going to be a traffic jam of sledders in the Keweenaw for a couple days, then it melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's going to be a traffic jam of sledders in the Keweenaw for a couple days, then it melts. Lol. I was just thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Unfortunately no video. Was a wild 20 minutes though. I work on the east side of Mpls. Did it not T-snow where you are? Actually, I relocated to the Cleveland snowbelt for the time being. I want to measure snow by the yardstick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Lol. I was just thinking the same thing. True, accept with LES and no base at all and non frozen ground I give the trails about 5 passes with sleds before they turn to mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Torching at 57 degrees, already 4 degrees above the forecasted high of 53 today. Next 3 days look seasonal, and then torch city again. Going to be some impressive numbers put up at the end of this month. Heck, this month alone will probably seal a warmer than average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 ORD is +12.5F for December. Departure will take a hit in the next few days and then there's the potential big torch lurking in the extended. A finish over 10 degrees above average appears to be well within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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