buckeye Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Yeah it is Torch in December, Begin the turn in January, freeze in February/March. I believe the opposite of that was your forecast around this time in 2013....to your credit, you never relented, no matter how cold it got and how deep the snow piled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The New England forum has a decidedly larger "looking for cold" crowd than most other subforums fwiw. We all like what we like, but I mean lets face it, the usual suspects anywhere will almost always go cold or warm. I always throw JB out, but LC & DT do not seem to have a bias. We will all get snow, some more than others. This area got an awesome snowstorm in a terrible pattern in Nov, and likewise a good pattern doesnt mean it will actually produce good results. The only guarantee is that it will not be a nonstop torch (looking for a DJF departure of +15F? not happening lol). For those north of I80, I say it all the time, "mild" does not necessarily mean crappy for snow, and "cold" does not necessarily mean snowy. oh, it'll snow, it'll get cold at times, but I think this winter will end up being somewhere between forgettable and historically warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 oh, it'll snow, it'll get cold at times, but I think this winter will end up being somewhere between forgettable and historically warm.I bet one month ends up with a negative departure. December will be +8 though.2011-2012 was pretty bad though, I could see grass in St Ignace, MI during the middle of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It's not going to be Feb 2015, but it will be closer to normal. I'll be snowmobiling within 4 hour drive within 2-3 weeks max. Torch (33F to 40F) all you want in Chicago... Won't affect the UP or Canada. Depends on where your going. 3 hours north from Toronto (Parry Sound-North Bay) which is normally covered in at least a foot of snow and lakes iced over currently looks like early November. Sadly this warm pattern is pretty close to ruining my annual christmas time ice hockey tournament. Also without sounding to pessimistic I highly doubt you will be snowmobiling anywhere in Northeastern Ontario in 2-3 weeks. Trails wont be open, and lakes won't have ice. Just saw that you mentioned SSM. You will have better chances from SSM-Wawa and westwards but Muskoka-North Bay- Sudbury won't have much. Have you ever been up to Timmins-Cochrane area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Made it up to 57 here and at ORD today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 So, are you all saying that my snowfall predictions are going to bust whether or not the torch continues? lol I am interested in seeing the December temperature departure map that Hoosier posted above come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Made it to 56° here today. Winds were really strong, especially between 2pm and sunset. Strong enough to bring down branches and limbs. Had to move a 4" diameter limb off a road I was traveling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Depends on where your going. 3 hours north from Toronto (Parry Sound-North Bay) which is normally covered in at least a foot of snow and lakes iced over currently looks like early November. Sadly this warm pattern is pretty close to ruining my annual christmas time ice hockey tournament. Also without sounding to pessimistic I highly doubt you will be snowmobiling anywhere in Northeastern Ontario in 2-3 weeks. Trails wont be open, and lakes won't have ice. Just saw that you mentioned SSM. You will have better chances from SSM-Wawa and westwards but Muskoka-North Bay- Sudbury won't have much. Have you ever been up to Timmins-Cochrane area? Yes & Yes. You must mean Wawa eastward. We will drive straight up to Timmins if we have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I bet one month ends up with a negative departure. December will be +8 though. 2011-2012 was pretty bad though, I could see grass in St Ignace, MI during the middle of January. If I had to guess Id guess February would be colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I am not sure about that spot, I don't see anything different about that location. Bufs hydrology map is more accurate. There are def 100in areas that extend through allegany county east. Aldred in southern allegany averages about 95 inches for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 12Z GFS has a strong clipper for Southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 12Z GFS has a strong clipper for Southern MI Yep at 360 hours... wouldn't take it to the bank just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 12Z GFS has a strong clipper for Southern MI lol the weenies are getting desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I don't focus on individual storms more than 7 days out... But patterns are another story. A pattern change 10 days out is believable. Then again, for my winter fun I just need a northwest wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It snowed twice already, it can and will snow again this winter. That's how I look at everything. Little cooler today, with upper 40s. Variably cloudy skies today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It snowed twice already, it can and will snow again this winter. That's how I look at everything. Little cooler today, with upper 40s. Variably cloudy skies today. Yeah. Winter is just starting lol. Here in the lakes, we will probably see at least 40-60 more days with flakes flying this season. So far we have had 7 days with snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Once in 20-30 year occurrence coming up. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Yeah. Winter is just starting lol. Here in the lakes, we will probably see at least 40-60 more days with flakes flying this season. So far we have had 7 days with snowflakes.flakes can fly all they want but unless they accumulate, they don't count for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Since we won't go below 44 before midnight, I'm calling it 57/44 which averages out to 50.5 or 19.5 above normal for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Since we won't go below 44 before midnight, I'm calling it 57/44 which averages out to 50.5 or 19.5 above normal for the date. Crazy, I'm at 41.1 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Have had 4 days of accumulating snowfall here. Several other days with a trace of snow. Yeah I'm with you on that one Bo. It's only 9 days since it snowed last, not all that one ago. Last year at this time we were all really deprived of snow. Wow, you were really warm in SEMI today! 48°/39° for today's high and low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 flakes can fly all they want but unless they accumulate, they don't count for me. Did your inch of snow/ice disappear yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Did your inch of snow/ice disappear yet?it almost did then more fell today the mega rain storm coming will cleanse away any last remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 It snowed twice already, it can and will snow again this winter. That's how I look at everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Here comes big bertha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 it almost did then more fell today the mega rain storm coming will cleanse away any last remnants. Even during a torch, you have an almost consistent snowpack. Sweet! I still can't talk my wife into moving to the UP...hmph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 flakes can fly all they want but unless they accumulate, they don't count for me. Thats a good point. I just basically meant you can bank on "mood flakes" here in the Lakes on so many days compared to almost any other region. Days with snow reported at DTW ..................T+.......0.1"+....1.0"+ 2014-15.....68........36........14 2013-14.....92........56........26 2012-13.....70........39........16 The least amount of measurable snow days in a season is in 1889-90 when only 15 days saw measurable snowfall. Unsure what the record for least amount of days with flakes is, but 1889-90 (31 days) is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Even during a torch, you have an almost consistent snowpack. Sweet! I still can't talk my wife into moving to the UP...hmph... How about NWL? Can their snow pack survive a torch? That might be a good middle ground to aim for! Had a few light showers here this evening. Surprised me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 63 in the point for Sunday. 1-2" rain potential with this incoming system. Other than that benign weather should rule through xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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