snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Getting some unexplainable mood flakes/-SN the last hour or so. Blue skies straight above and a fire red sunset to the west. Kind of fitting as probably the last flakes of the winter. The next couple of weeks look warm, but I'd be shocked if this was it for the winter. Late March and April are ripe for at least flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Did some research on Mod-Strong Nina winters in London, On (YXU) since 1980. Thought this was appropriate as it looks like it is the most probable ENSO state for next winter given current data. All data is based on ERSSTv4 ONI numbers. Borderline Moderate(ONI Peak -0.8 to -0.9) 83-84: 234.5cm 00-01: 277.1cm 08-09: 265cm 11-12: 132.2cm Moderate years(ONI peak -1.0 to -1.5) 84-85: 255.1cm 95-96: 185.9cm 98-99: 175cm 07-08: 260cm 10-11: 306.5cm Strong Years(ON peak >-1.5) 88-89: 144.3cm 99-00: 176.3cm There were 3 more strong nina years since 1950. 55-56: 192.2cm 73-74: 171.8cm 75-76: 256.0cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Did some research on Mod-Strong Nina winters in London, On (YXU) since 1980. Thought this was appropriate as it looks like it is the most probable ENSO state for next winter given current data. All data is based on ERSSTv4 ONI numbers. Borderline Moderate(ONI Peak -0.8 to -0.9) 83-84: 234.5cm 00-01: 277.1cm 08-09: 265cm 11-12: 132.2cm Moderate years(ONI peak -1.0 to -1.5) 84-85: 255.1cm 95-96: 185.9cm 98-99: 175cm 07-08: 260cm 10-11: 306.5cm Strong Years(ON peak >-1.5) 88-89: 144.3cm 99-00: 176.3cm There were 3 more strong nina years since 1950. 55-56: 192.2cm 73-74: 171.8cm 75-76: 256.0cm Thanks for the research. I'll be captain obvious here an say I think we want to stay away from a strong Nina. Data also shows how aberrant 2011-12 was. I'm guessing other teleconnections overwhelmed the Nina that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Thanks for the research. I'll be captain obvious here an say I think we want to stay away from a strong Nina. Data also shows how aberrant 2011-12 was. I'm guessing other teleconnections overwhelmed the Nina that winter. Agree about not wanting a strong Nina in the MW/Lakes. The moderate and borderline moderate Ninas also had significant Arctic outbreaks, i.e. December 1983, January 1985, February 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2016 Author Share Posted March 5, 2016 Wasn't 1970-71 a moderate La Nina as well? It's interesting to note that summers where an El Nino transitions into a La Nina often turn out very hot. 1988, 1995 and 2005 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Downtown at 18.0" for the season. Only ~5" recorded for the March 1-2 snowstorm. North York came in with similar amounts. Those two are reliable stations so it looks like 2015-16 is still devoid of a true 6"+ snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Forecast accuracy continues to be dismal for MBY by EC and TWN. I mostly follow TWN so most examples are from the outputs of their engine. 2 and a quarter years now of bad forecasts by them. This week they forecast rain on Tuesday and Wednesday; barely got anything for the last 72 hours and yesterday morning when 5-10 mm of it was shown, there wasn't even a shower (just mist). Dense fog advisory more than 8 hours before any fog showed up. That's not really a big deal though because in the country it can be a lot worse. Temps wise was okay this week but countless times they have been 6ºC off or more. A few weeks ago TWN really had some flips. This was around the time of that non-storm Ontario had before last week's big one. In Feb on a Sunday they said it was going to be below freezing, snowing, and a heavy LES event right after that which didn't even prove a flake to come down!!! What the heck!? Then flipped to show +8ºC and cloudy with sunny breaks just 60 hours beforehand. I don't remember summer 2005 has being very hot, but it was pleasant. The last day of winter was last Sunday, then the overnight showers started and that signaled it. Thank heavens this winter went by fast. The snow is melting fast. This cycle is on track to be one of the earliest unveilings of the last 10 or 15 years. 2012 won't be beat but can't complain at all about this. I have nothing to compare the medium range to from memory because there aren't huge record spikes up here but instead its going to be a constant, well above normal period with 5ºC lows and sun/clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2016 Author Share Posted March 12, 2016 Forecast accuracy continues to be dismal for MBY by EC and TWN. I mostly follow TWN so most examples are from the outputs of their engine. 2 and a quarter years now of bad forecasts by them. This week they forecast rain on Tuesday and Wednesday; barely got anything for the last 72 hours and yesterday morning when 5-10 mm of it was shown, there wasn't even a shower (just mist). Dense fog advisory more than 8 hours before any fog showed up. That's not really a big deal though because in the country it can be a lot worse. Temps wise was okay this week but countless times they have been 6ºC off or more. A few weeks ago TWN really had some flips. This was around the time of that non-storm Ontario had before last week's big one. In Feb on a Sunday they said it was going to be below freezing, snowing, and a heavy LES event right after that which didn't even prove a flake to come down!!! What the heck!? Then flipped to show +8ºC and cloudy with sunny breaks just 60 hours beforehand. I don't remember summer 2005 has being very hot, but it was pleasant. The last day of winter was last Sunday, then the overnight showers started and that signaled it. Thank heavens this winter went by fast. The snow is melting fast. This cycle is on track to be one of the earliest unveilings of the last 10 or 15 years. 2012 won't be beat but can't complain at all about this. I have nothing to compare the medium range to from memory because there aren't huge record spikes up here but instead its going to be a constant, well above normal period with 5ºC lows and sun/clouds. June 2005 was very hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nice little early season event. In fact this was the earliest tornado in Ontario history (previous was March 27 1991). Also the first tornado in Canada this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Environment Canada cleaned/fixed up the data for the downtown Toronto U of T station from late December to early January. Snowfall for Dec 28th is the same at 4.4 cm, but the 3.2 cm figure for Dec 29th was adjusted to zero as it was an error (there was no snow that day, just rain). The data for Dec 30 was adjusted from zero a trace of rain and snow as I remember there was a mixture of rain showers/snow grains late that afternoon. For Dec. 31st, snowfall adjusted from 0.5 cm to 0.4 cm, but on Jan 1st, it went the other way (0.5 cm to 0.6 cm). The 0.2 mm of rain for Jan 2nd was removed and adjusted to a trace of snow (there was no rain that day, just flurries). So as of today, here's the monthly snowfall breakdown: Nov: 0.4 cm Dec: 4.8 cm (adjusted from previous reading of 8.1 cm) Jan: 8.8 cm (adjusted from previous reading of 8.7 cm) Feb: 14.9 cm Mar: 19.2 cm TOTAL: 48.1 cm (18.9") For Pearson Airport, Nov: 1.0 cm Dec: 3.2 cm Jan: 10.6 cm Feb: 17.8 cm Mar: 11.2 cm TOTAL: 43.8 cm (17.2") It looks like we could add to this next week as suggested by the latest model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 2, 2016 Author Share Posted April 2, 2016 The GEM is continuing to look good for southern, centra land southwestern Ontario on Sunday night. We could even see some moderate to heavy snow if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 June 2005 was very hot. I do remember something like that but I don't remember too much overall. I do know that it was an awesome month and I was very happy. June is my favorite month and when its linked to extreme heat I'm always in a good spot with that. Nice little early season event. In fact this was the earliest tornado in Ontario history (previous was March 27 1991). Also the first tornado in Canada this year. I think its really cool that the first tornado occurred essentially right in my backyard. It keeps happening like this. These brief, unwarned tornadoes keep happening all around me since 2005 and I'm the tornado connoisseur . I saw the skies and they did seem a tad unusual that afternoon and all that crossed my mind was that it could storm a bit - just a nice drive and a tornado would have been served to the one seeking it as a lifetime goal . The first round of snow came at 3:00 am today and I was taken aback by the heavy-ish nature of it. Moderate flake size. It covered most surfaces and then started covering the road before it melted sometime this morning. Round 2 started a little more than a hour ago and its a trace on the now-green grass. Its much lighter than the overnight round and is fine flake size wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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