OSUmetstud Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 On 12/28/2015 at 11:40 PM, snowstormcanuck said: So you think 9-12 then a change over basically to rain (brief zr/ip interlude)? That's definitely going against the models, which are showing IP being a dominant p-type form. Mad props if you're right. take a look at the gfs bufkit sounding for toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 On 12/28/2015 at 11:45 PM, OSUmetstud said: take a look at the gfs bufkit sounding for toronto. Yeah, I saw them. GFS is definitely on the colder side of the guidance initially. HRRR also is supportive but to a lesser extent. NAM/RGEM/SREFs/RAP all much warmer. Those latter models are already busting in that they were indicating PL right from the get-go so maybe the GFS will come out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/28/2015 at 11:52 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, I saw them. GFS is definitely on the colder side of the guidance initially. HRRR also is supportive but to a lesser extent. NAM/RGEM/SREFs/RAP all much warmer. Those latter models are already busting in that they were indicating PL right from the get-go so maybe the GFS will come out on top. This why sounding analysis is always best. Thicknesses would definitely look pl at the onset but these set ups always higher than normal thicknesses for snow given they are nearly isothermal to 0c aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Snow starting falling at my place around 6:15 pm. Has been snowing lightly ever since. I'm thinking 5-10 cm for my area, rain by the morning rush hour. Hoping I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 12:32 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Snow starting falling at my place around 6:15 pm. Has been snowing lightly ever since. I'm thinking 5-10 cm for my area, rain by the morning rush hour. Hoping I'm wrong though. I'm guessing 3 to maybe 4 cm so far here, although it's been snowing about half an hour longer here. Grass is mostly covered. Assuming we don't get PL contamination within the next couple of hours, I think the higher end should be attainable. Would be helpful if we got some genuine moderate to heavy snow. Rates have been decent but still in the light category i'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 12:55 AM, snowstormcanuck said: I'm guessing 3 to maybe 4 cm so far here, although it's been snowing about half an hour longer here. Grass is mostly covered. Assuming we don't get PL contamination within the next couple of hours, I think the higher end should be attainable. Would be helpful if we got some genuine moderate to heavy snow. Rates have been decent but still in the light category i'd say. still snow in buffalo and hamilton...looks like the cold end of guidance is good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:04 AM, OSUmetstud said: still snow in buffalo and hamilton...looks like the cold end of guidance is good so far. Hamilton switched to -ZR at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 ahh hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:04 AM, OSUmetstud said: still snow in buffalo and hamilton...looks like the cold end of guidance is good so far. On 12/29/2015 at 1:08 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Hamilton switched to -ZR at 8pm. the change is making its way along the lakeshore. I have just turned from mostly snow to a snow-ice pellet mix. Im hoping thats because I just went thru lighter radar returns so Ill wait and see if the heavier stuff can switch my area back to mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:09 AM, mississaugasnow said: the change is making its way along the lakeshore. I have just turned from mostly snow to a snow-ice pellet mix. Im hoping thats because I just went thru lighter radar returns so Ill wait and see if the heavier stuff can switch my area back to mostly snow Yeah, I'm noticing that lull on King City Radar. Hopefully the heavier returns about to move in "re-cool" the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:04 AM, OSUmetstud said: still snow in buffalo and hamilton...looks like the cold end of guidance is good so far. It'll be interesting to see if buffalo receives enough snow to avoid having the least snowiest December on record. Still snowing quite steadily here, albeit lightly. Very windy. I may have heard one or two pings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 All or nearly all ice pellets here now. edit: actually, YYZ now reporting -FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:38 AM, snowstormcanuck said: All or nearly all ice pellets here now. edit: actually, YYZ now reporting -FZRA. lol i saw that. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:44 AM, OSUmetstud said: lol i saw that. ugh. Oh well. I'm going to go outside and push some wintry garbage around with my shovel for the first time in 2015-16. That's a win as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 1:51 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Oh well. I'm going to go outside and push some wintry garbage around with my shovel for the first time in 2015-16. That's a win as far as I'm concerned. Yes, and it's only December 28. Hopefully there will be a few more chances for a big dog in January, February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Look at that....back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 2:09 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Look at that....back to snow Just as you said that I went from almost all ice pellets to a 50/50 mix and it looks like more snow mixing in by the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 2:17 AM, mississaugasnow said: Just as you said that I went from almost all ice pellets to a 50/50 mix and it looks like more snow mixing in by the minute. Same here in downtown Toronto. Hopefully the heavier returns on King City radar to our SW will be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yeah, it's a mixture...but I'd say snow has been winning the battle the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Mark Robinson form TWN just said on Twitter that the low ius further south than expected. implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 2:47 AM, dan123 said: Mark Robinson form TWN just said on Twitter that the low ius further south than expected. implications? Doesn't look like a huge deviation. I'd guess next to no change to the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Blowing snow at my place. Some pingers mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just went all ice pellets here. Was out shovelling and it went from mostly snow, to mostly ice pellets in about 2 minutes Just figured out why. The heaviest returns have left my area again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Heaviest snow of the evening so far occurring now, but per Mississaugasnow's report, it shant be lasting too much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 3:25 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Heaviest snow of the evening so far occurring now, but per Mississaugasnow's report, it shant be lasting too much longer. That thin line on the radar is the full changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 On 12/29/2015 at 3:28 AM, OSUmetstud said: That thin line on the radar is the full changeover. are you still anticipating a quick changeover from Ice pellets to rain? I wouldn't mind a bit of a sleet storm on top of this snow. Especially since people in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan said it was one of the best sleet storms they have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Mostly PL now but still some flakes mixed in. I wonder if the next burst will transition us back? We're losing the battle with time but I'll stay up just to check it out. I'm guessing 6-7cm at my place. Just eyeballing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 After a brief period of heavy snow, precip is now in the form of moderate sleet. Lots of pinging against my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Been ice pellets here for hours and hours after initial push of snow and blowing snow. Saw a report of 10cm of ice pellets in Elmira. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Environment Canada just ended the Special Weather Statement and issued a Freezing Rain Warning for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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