Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I thought I'd start up a thread similar to last year. Of course members from surrounding American states are welcome to join in the discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I have a vested interest in the Algoma region. Heck anywhere within 500 miles of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Looks like a warm start to December for much of Canada, including southern Ontario. Anthony Farnell of Global TV released his winter forecast yesterday and he's calling for near-record or record warm December for all of Canada. He has below normal snowfall for western Canada stretching eastwards to southern Ontario. Above-normal snowfall along the US east coast into Atlantic Canada. Despite the warmth, he's forecasting a chilly February for central and eastern Canada. The overall temperature map for DJF looks like 2009-10. Warmest to the west and north and slightly above normal in southern Ontario with below normal reserved for the US east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Downtown Toronto is on the board with its first measurable snowfall of the season. 0.4 cm fell on the 23rd (early morning hours on the 24th). Pearson Airport also recorded 0.4 cm on the 23rd. Just noticed the East York station is no longer in operation (since the end of July). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 I have low expectations for this winter, to be honest. I'm not saying it's going to be a total bust, but I don't think it's going to be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Despite El Nino, it can be good. Patterns don't shift easily. If we can get a cold regime setup, it will lock in regardless of El nino. We just need to get it started. Keep an eye on the long range models and watch for a deep trough, it will come eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Downtown Toronto is on the board with its first measurable snowfall of the season. 0.4 cm fell on the 23rd (early morning hours on the 24th). Pearson Airport also recorded 0.4 cm on the 23rd. Just noticed the East York station is no longer in operation (since the end of July). That sucks. That's the problem with these volunteer obs locations. People die/move/lose interest. Same thing happened with the Burnhamthorpe station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tricky forecast for tomorrow. Regardless of the scenario we will turn to some light rain at some point. But how we get there is the question. EURO/NAM show several hours of PL before the transition. RGEM and especially the GFS would give us quite the front-end thumping of snow before we switch over. SREF mean has been ticking up lately...has YYZ at 2.5" of snow for the mean. Bottom line is we should get on the board for December tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tricky forecast for tomorrow. Regardless of the scenario we will turn to some light rain at some point. But how we get there is the question. EURO/NAM show several hours of PL before the transition. RGEM and especially the GFS would give us quite the front-end thumping of snow before we switch over. SREF mean has been ticking up lately...has YYZ at 2.5" of snow for the mean. Bottom line is we should get on the board for December tomorrow. I'm hoping for at least 2"/5cm before the changeover. Ottawa and Montreal look to cash in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm hoping for at least 2"/5cm before the changeover. Ottawa and Montreal look to cash in on this. NAM going to come in better for us this morning. Yeah, they're much deeper into the cold air. edit: I think even the warm NAM is going to start us as snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That sucks. That's the problem with these volunteer obs locations. People die/move/lose interest. Same thing happened with the Burnhamthorpe station. Welcome back, SSC! It's been a tough start to winter in the GTA, but I'm getting thru it. This winter is shaping up to be like 2006-07. Very warm Dec followed by a transition in Jan and cold in Feb. Hopefully we'll get a bit more snow than that winter, but with the track forecasted to be east of us come late Jan/Feb, it'll be a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That sucks. That's the problem with these volunteer obs locations. People die/move/lose interest. Same thing happened with the Burnhamthorpe station. The person who manned the East York station was a retired Environment Canada employee at his private residence, so I'm not surprised operation of the station ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The high positioning on the NAM is much further east and weaker than the REG. Even with that in mind, theres some +PL/SN although the duration of it is shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Welcome back, SSC! It's been a tough start to winter in the GTA, but I'm getting thru it. This winter is shaping up to be like 2006-07. Very warm Dec followed by a transition in Jan and cold in Feb. Hopefully we'll get a bit more snow than that winter, but with the track forecasted to be east of us come late Jan/Feb, it'll be a challenge. Thanks. If there's important weather occurring, I'll be around. Not much a forum jockey for the down-times anymore though. NAM still looks like it hangs onto a warm layer above 850mb. Mostly PL again this run although it's trending in the right direction. I'll check BUFKIT when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The high positioning on the NAM is much further east and weaker than the REG. Even with that in mind, theres some +PL/SN although the duration of it is shorter. Third run in a row it's trended colder. I'll take it. Wow, just a trace for the season? I seem to remember a coating back in November. I don't measure imby anymore but I'd have guessed it was around 1cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The person who manned the East York station was a retired Environment Canada employee at his private residence, so I'm not surprised operation of the station ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Third run in a row it's trended colder. I'll take it. Wow, just a trace for the season? I seem to remember a coating back in November. I don't measure imby anymore but I'd have guessed it was around 1cm. I was away for that event so I low-balled it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EC with a WSW for all of the south except Essex and Kent. Pretty surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 EC with a WSW for all of the south except Essex and Kent. Pretty surprising. Surprising because you expect next to nothing for Toronto or because EC is usually behind the proverbial 8 ball when it comes to things like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Surprising because you expect next to nothing for Toronto or because EC is usually behind the proverbial 8 ball when it comes to things like this? More the latter. I was expecting nothing more than a special weather statement with the 3:30 forecast. I think we're in line for several hours of +SN before we switch over to PL. Also, it's fairly far south but I guess the glaze potential in the Sarnia-London area is enough to warrant it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Watches 2:18 PM EST Sunday 27 December 2015 Winter storm watch in effect for: City of TorontoMajor winter storm Monday night into Tuesday morning. A low from Texas will spread snow, ice pellets, and blowing snow into the regions Monday evening. Snow and ice pellet amounts of 10 to 15 cms are expected before precipitation changes to freezing rain early Tuesday. Freezing rain will change to rain or drizzle during the day Tuesday. Furthermore, strong easterly winds gusting to 70 km/h are expected Monday evening and Monday night with gusts to 80 km/h possible near Lake Ontario. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate Monday evening as visibilities drop to near zero and roads become covered in snow and ice pellets. Significant disruption to travel may persist into Tuesday. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to [email protected] or tweet reports to #ONStorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Technically not even WSW criteria but considering it's really the first accumulating snow of the season, plus the wind, I think it's justifiable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 EC now calling for a high of only +1 celsius on Tuesday, as opposed to the +6 being called for by The Weather Network. If EC is right, it could get nasty with all the pellets and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 EC now calling for a high of only +1 celsius on Tuesday, as opposed to the +6 being called for by The Weather Network. If EC is right, it could get nasty with all the pellets and freezing rain. They changed kw to +1 too and 10-15cm of snow tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 They changed kw to +1 too and 10-15cm of snow tomorrow night Well, let's hope they're right! I hope we don't get too much freezing rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Don't think we'll get much ZR in Toronto as the sfc cold will get scoured before the mid-level warmth becomes deep enough to completely melt the snowflakes/pellets. If the front-end thump is mostly pellets, I think we'll walk away with 2-5cm worth. If we can manage to stay snow/mostly snow for the first 3-6 hours of the precip, I don't think half a foot of snow plus is unreasonable. Right now I'll cut the difference and go with 5-10cm of snow/pellets for Toronto before the slot moves in and we go over to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Don't think we'll get much ZR in Toronto as the sfc cold will get scoured before the mid-level warmth becomes deep enough to completely melt the snowflakes/pellets. If the front-end thump is mostly pellets, I think we'll walk away with 2-5cm worth. If we can manage to stay snow/mostly snow for the first 3-6 hours of the precip, I don't think half a foot of snow plus is unreasonable. Right now I'll cut the difference and go with 5-10cm of snow/pellets for Toronto before the slot moves in and we go over to light rain. Good call. I'll go with 10 cm of snow for Toronto, 20-25 cm for Ottawa and Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Good call. I'll go with 10 cm of snow for Toronto, 20-25 cm for Ottawa and Montreal. Best chances to go over 10cm will be across the northern and eastern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nice ZR signal on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Cannot shake that thin warm tongue on the NAM around 750mb. It's only like 10-20mb deep but it throws a wrench into what would have been a solid warning criteria snowfall. Hopefully it verifies too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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