Thanksgiving weekend heavy rainfall event

[janetjanet998]

heavy rains, then overrunning rains with a tropical connection

 

soils rather wet

 

This should put DFW in first place for the all time wettest year

 

[NTXYankee]

Impressive considering where we were the last several years and still have December to get through. May very well be a difficult record to beat again after this.

[Jebman]

I hope that area of heaviest rain gets nudged south southwest.

 

I love rain so much. I want more! C'mon Sandra, please do a Patricia redux!!

 

I also hope the panhandle areas of Texas get plenty of snow!

[OKwx2K4]

I don't want 7 inches of rain. :-(

[brettjrob]

I fully expect the OKC metro to hit freezing for keeps around mid-late morning Friday... absolutely no later than sundown, and forget about thawing on Saturday if there's any substantial precip. Significant icing events in the southern Plains are almost inevitably further south and colder than forecast, and this fits the bill in rather classic fashion. While recent forecasts have focused primarily on NW OK, I wouldn't be surprised to see damaging accretion in some swath near or SE of I-44 corridor. Depending upon how much precipitation can fall with the second batch overnight Friday into Saturday, it could get ugly.

[rockchalk83]

I fully expect the OKC metro to hit freezing for keeps around mid-late morning Friday... absolutely no later than sundown, and forget about thawing on Saturday if there's any substantial precip. Significant icing events in the southern Plains are almost inevitably further south and colder than forecast, and this fits the bill in rather classic fashion. While recent forecasts have focused primarily on NW OK, I wouldn't be surprised to see damaging accretion in some swath near or SE of I-44 corridor. Depending upon how much precipitation can fall with the second batch overnight Friday into Saturday, it could get ugly.

 

You're spot on with your analysis, Brett. In fact, the Norman forecast office alluded to an east and southward expansion of the watch/warning/advisory layout and mentioned the models are moving the surface front faster. Still looks like SC/SW KS into OK and TX stand to see a potentially significant icing event. 

[Roy]

Well, this is great. Went on up to Kansas for Thanksgiving since all the forecasts said ice would stay west of 35. It's getting worse and worse now...from driving through a few hours of ice to now much of OK...

[janetjanet998]

10+ inch bullseye on the red river now latest WPC 1-3 day outlook

[yoda]

Reading some of the ISW's... and it looks like bullseye may be in SW OK with up to half inch of ice possible

[NJ_Ken]

As others have pointed out, the push of cold air has been much stronger than depicted on the models. As of this morning, forecasts were saying the front would cross OKC between 6 pm and midnight. This afternoon, they updated it to say it would happen between 3 pm and 9 pm. The front ended up going through around 2:30 pm here on the north side of Oklahoma City and in the 1+ hours since, we've dropped from 65 F to 48 F. It is still going to be a long slog to get below freezing but I think it might happen early tomorrow rather than tomorrow night. That might be problem for the shopping yahoos who aren't paying close attention to the weather thanks to the holiday.

EDIT: As of the 4 pm update, Will Rogers airport (on the SW side of OKC) was at 49 F and Tinker Air Force base (on the SE side of OKC) was at 63 F. Yup, that is a pretty strong front and it is pushing east fast.

[janetjanet998]

first train now setting up..will move over the NW side of the metroplex

 

1.4 inches already in Decatur

[David Reimer]

Heads up - OUN advised that the radars are greatly underestimating rain accumulations - including the dual-pol data. They've switched over into tropical mode for precip totals but even that may be underestimating the actual totals. 

[Jebman]

Heads up - OUN advised that the radars are greatly underestimating rain accumulations - including the dual-pol data. They've switched over into tropical mode for precip totals but even that may be underestimating the actual totals. 

David, how much rain has fallen there so far? And how much has fallen in Dallas? Looks like KOUN and KFWD have been receiving fairly steady rain.

[David Reimer]

David, how much rain has fallen there so far? And how much has fallen in Dallas? Looks like KOUN and KFWD have been receiving fairly steady rain.

 

OUN Mesonet has received 0.76" as of 5:30 PM. Burneyville, Oklahoma (on the Red River just west of Interstate 35) is up to 1.77". I haven't seen any numbers come in from North Texas yet or heard of any issues with flooding. I'm sure that will change by tomorrow. 

[Jebman]

OUN Mesonet has received 0.76" as of 5:30 PM. Burneyville, Oklahoma (on the Red River just west of Interstate 35) is up to 1.77". I haven't seen any numbers come in from North Texas yet or heard of any issues with flooding. I'm sure that will change by tomorrow. 

Thanks, it is very much appreciated.

[janetjanet998]

as of 10pm

 

DFW 1.82

Denton 1.78

Decatur 2.87

 

another heavy batch moving in now

[janetjanet998]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
948 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015  
   
UPDATE  
 
THE RAIN EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN  
ALREADY ACROSS PARTS OF WISE COUNTY. IT APPEARS AS IF THE SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. WE  
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE  
A BREAK IN THE ACTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN A FEW HOURS.  
AS OF 9 PM...THE FRONT WAS ALREADY SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS AND  
FAST APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL BRING  
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS.  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST FRONT  
TIMING UP ABOUT AN HOUR AND ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS ACCORDINGLY.  
 
AS A SIDE NOTE...DFW IS NOW IN SECOND PLACE FOR YEARLY RAINFALL.  
AS OF 945 PM 1.84" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WHICH BRINGS THE  
YEARLY TOTAL TO 52.59 WHICH IS 0.95 INCHES AWAY FROM THE ALL TIME  
YEARLY RAINFALL RECORD.  

[NTXYankee]

as of 10pm

DFW 1.82

Denton 1.78

Decatur 2.87

another heavy batch moving in now

I was just thinking based on the rate it's coming down near dfw where I live by, that we have to at least be approaching 2 inches. It just pours in buckets, having a dog just makes it all the more fun especially since she loves water and the nature made ponds in the yards now.

[janetjanet998]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0661  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1055 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 270344Z - 270944Z  
 
SUMMARY...INITIAL ROUND OF MDT RAINS OF 1-3" WITH THE LIKELIHOOD  
OF ADDITIONAL REGENERATION NEAR OR UPSTREAM LEADING TO A PROLONGED  
TRAINING EVENT CAPABLE OF FLOODING POSSIBLY FLASHY OVER NEXT FEW  
HOURS.  
 
DISCUSSION...WV/IR LOOP INDICATE STRONG 110+ KT POLAR JET AND WELL  
DEFINED SUBTROPICAL JET ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF HURRICANE  
SANDRA CONVERGING OVER WEST TEXAS BUT BECOMING DIFFLUENT NEAR 100W  
SETTING UP AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT  
WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/REGENERATION  
OF CONVECTION TOWARD THE APEX OF THE DIFFLUENCE. SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING UPSTREAM IN THE POLAR CHANNEL AND NO REAL SHIFT IN THE  
SUBTROPICAL JET SUPPORTS THIS REGIME TO MAINTAIN LOCATION FOR THE  
DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT  
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OK INTO N CENTRAL TX WHICH WILL  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM 35-45 KT  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT THIS TIME... RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A  
SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH NEARLY UNCAPPED 750-1000 J/KG  
SBCAPE NEAR THE APEX OF THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. RECENT IR AND  
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS  
OCCURRING...WHICH APPEARED TO BE INITIALIZED BY AN ENHANCED SPEED  
MAX OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS CONVECTION IS  
NEARING -60C...WITHIN A MODERATELY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH TPWS  
AOA 1.5"... SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE RATES OF 1.5"/HR OR  
GREATER...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING 1-1.5" TOTALS AS IT  
TRACKS THROUGH AREAS FROM BWD TO FTW THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-3".  
 
DUE TO THE EARLIER RAINFALL...FFG VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1"  
FROM RUNNELS/COLEMAN COUNTIES TO LOVE/MARSHALL COUNTIES NORTH OF  
THE RED RIVER IN OK. WITH THESE CONVECTIVE RATES THERE IS A  
MODERATE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED THESE LOWER FFG FOR ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...PROLONGED  
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH RATES OF .5-1.0"/HR AFTER WEAK INSTABILITY  
IS EXHAUSTED WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LONGER DURATION INUNDATION  
FLOODING WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF REPEAT REDEVELOPMENT AND  
TRAINING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS...THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MANY HI-RES CAMS  
PARTICULARLY THE ARW (THOUGH THE AXIS MAY BE A COUNTY OR TWO TOO  
FAR NORTH).  
 

[janetjanet998]

Metroplex getting hammered now with 50+ dbz returns and at least 1 INCH per hour rates in spots

 

looks like a mini convective system with hints of a weak overall spin and inflow bands from the SSE

 

the lack of vegetation this time of year mean more runoff then last MAY

[janetjanet998]

2.5 -3 inches now common over much of the metroplex 

 

DFW radar really underestimating amounts

[Jebman]

congrats North Texas on one hell of a kick azz heavy rainfall event.

 

You'll set your new rainfall record. The AFD was fascinating reading. I am going to preserve it on notepad, lol.

 

I envy North Texas so much. You are the sweet spot for El Nino rains in 2015-2016 in this entire region. 2016 will get off to an excellent start for DFW with regard to tremendous rains as potent storm after potent storm after potent storm will wallop Dallas for the next four months at least. You might even end up keeping the eastern seaboard under strong upper ridging all winter long giving Washington DC one of the mildest winters it has seen in decades!

 

I'd give everything I own for a chance to spend the next four days in Dallas!

[janetjanet998]

1am

over 4 inches at Forth Worth Meacham

about 3.5 at DFW

[janetjanet998]

A little late but sounds like black friday shoppers not thinking

 

28 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 330 AM CST  
 
* AT 124 AM CST...THE DALLAS ALERT GAUGE NETWORK INDICATED FLASH  
FLOODING IS OCCURRING AROUND THE CITY AND COUNTY OF DALLAS. AT 125  
AM CST...19 ALERT GAUGES HAD BEEN ACTIVATED DUE TO WATER FLOWING  
OVER THE ROADS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ENDING ACROSS DALLAS COUNTY...  
HOWEVER FLOODED ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY NOT RECEDE UNTIL AFTER 3 AM.  
MANY LOW LYING AREAS ARE FLOODED ACROSS DALLAS...AND IT IS VERY  
DIFFICULT TO RECOGNIZE FLOODED ROADWAYS AT NIGHT. REPORTS OF WATER  
RESCUES ALL AROUND DALLAS WERE OBSERVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. 

[janetjanet998]

looks like a break now....but as of 7am

 

DFW 4.48

Fort worth Meacham 4.30

Denton 3.27

Mckinney 6.13

Arlington 4.36

[NJ_Ken]

Rainfall totals are a bit less impressive up here in Central OK (we are right around 2" in my backyard), but we have a lot more to go.... and it is fixing to start getting ugly. As of now, it is 32 F with a dewpoint of 30. I don't see any ice yet, but it would appear to only be a matter of time.

Edit: We had a band of sleet go through at around 10 am, but temps continue to bounce around between 32 and 33 F. I think the late November sun is doing just enough to keep us clear for now (though places just west of the OKC metro.... and I am talking just a few miles.... are seeing some fairly serious icing).

If anybody is driving on I-40 or I-35, expect to see icing starting in the OKC metro and rapidly worsening as you go north and/or west.

[Jebman]

The sun is out in central Texas. No ice here, and minimal drizzle.

 

I am very very glad I am NOT up north in that damn ice.

 

I think we are just about done here, variably cloudy, maybe some spotty drizzle tonight and tomorrow. Most of the rain is well north. It is moving rapidly northeast. Have fun Dallas as freezing conds drop south. Its nice to not have to worry about wintry nonsense in Austin, lol. We generally don't have to deal with winter here.

[Jebman]

Frontal passage in Buda at 240pm. Temp dropped 8 degrees in less than a minute. It was 70/69. Now it is  58/52 and falling with N winds gusting to 24 mph. Frontal passage was dry as a martini, sure its cloudy, but most of the forcing is way up north in Oklahoma and over the OK/TX border.

 

Sure it'll be colder but with likely isolated to scattered light drizzles.

 

Hey NWS - the cold front did NOT bring best chances of rain down here hundreds of miles south of the best forcing - please adjust your AFD wording to reflect this latest trend, lol.

 

 

EDIT: So we got some light drizzle. We sure did not get "all that heavy rain associated with the cold front".

NWS, you need to have appropriate wording in forecasts for different portions of Texas. Austin is a DRY climate. Dallas tends to get convergence nine out of ten storms. Please dont indicate "heavy rain" over two days for Austin when the best forcing is way up near the OK/TX state line. Most of Sandra's moisture went to the Dallas region. Last night your well-worded AFD for Ft Worth  indicated as much.  A 50 percent chance of scattered showers would have been better wording. We DID have scattered showers, but most of the time it was breezy and cloudy with no rain at all.

 

EDIT 2: Area of rain to our south has been approaching for an hour. It is hitting a solid wall south of Buda. We have some sporadic drizzle. Meanwhile a firehose of moisture from Sandra is aiming directly at Oklahoma which should stack up impressive beneficial rainfall accumulations there overnight.

Austin and Buda should get only drizzle and extremely brief spritzes of light rain overnight.

I sure wish we could have ten percent of what North Texas and Oklahoma are getting --- But, beggars can't be choosers.

[janetjanet998]

here we go again

 

moderate to heavy rain over the NW 1/2 of the metroplex 

 

trinity river at dallas in major flood

 

4 deaths reported

[jm1220]

Frontal passage in Buda at 240pm. Temp dropped 8 degrees in less than a minute. It was 70/69. Now it is  58/52 and falling with N winds gusting to 24 mph. Frontal passage was dry as a martini, sure its cloudy, but most of the forcing is way up north in Oklahoma and over the OK/TX border.

 

Sure it'll be colder but with likely isolated to scattered light drizzles.

 

Hey NWS - the cold front did NOT bring best chances of rain down here hundreds of miles south of the best forcing - please adjust your AFD wording to reflect this latest trend, lol.

 

 

EDIT: So we got some light drizzle. We sure did not get "all that heavy rain associated with the cold front".

NWS, you need to have appropriate wording in forecasts for different portions of Texas. Austin is a DRY climate. Dallas tends to get convergence nine out of ten storms. Please dont indicate "heavy rain" over two days for Austin when the best forcing is way up near the OK/TX state line. Most of Sandra's moisture went to the Dallas region. Last night your well-worded AFD for Ft Worth  indicated as much.  A 50 percent chance of scattered showers would have been better wording. We DID have scattered showers, but most of the time it was breezy and cloudy with no rain at all.

 

EDIT 2: Area of rain to our south has been approaching for an hour. It is hitting a solid wall south of Buda. We have some sporadic drizzle. Meanwhile a firehose of moisture from Sandra is aiming directly at Oklahoma which should stack up impressive beneficial rainfall accumulations there overnight.

Austin and Buda should get only drizzle and extremely brief spritzes of light rain overnight.

I sure wish we could have ten percent of what North Texas and Oklahoma are getting --- But, beggars can't be choosers.

 

Please stop with this. Seriously. It's beyond annoying at this point. The two feet of rain you had in 10 days late last month is indicative of a "DRY climate"? 

 

Also, Austin's had more than "light drizzle". Parts of the city have close to 2".