December 2015 temperature forecast contest, year end reports

[Roger Smith]

Bumping this thread with a new entry in the anomaly tracker, will edit this with 12, 14 day updates then start a daily countdown.

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_________ (5d) _________ +3.6__ +6.5__ +4.7 ___ +5.0__ +3.7__ --4.5 ___ +3.6__ --0.2__ +5.5

_________ (8d) _________ +3.7__ +6.3__ +5.7 ___ +5.8__ +4.9__ --2.9 ___ +7.0__ +2.3__ +7.4

________ (10d) _________ +4.3__ +7.5__ +6.4 ___ +8.4__ +6.0__ --0.7 ___ +9.8__ +3.1__ +7.5

________ (12d) _________ +6.4__ +9.5__ +8.1 __ +10.4__ +8.0__ +2.8 ___ +8.9__ +2.9__ +7.0

________ (14d) _________ +8.1_ +11.3__ +9.1 __ +12.5__ +9.1__ +3.3 ___ +7.5__ +1.8__ +6.3

________ (15d) _________ +8.7_ +12.1__ +9.8 __ +12.5__ +9.5__ +3.7 ___ +6.3__ +1.0__ +5.8

________ (16d) _________ +8.8_ +12.1__ +9.8 __ +12.8__ +9.8__ +3.8 ___ +5.3__ +0.4__ +5.5

________ (17d) _________ +8.9_ +12.4__ +9.9 __ +12.3__ +9.9__ +3.6 ___ +3.9__ --0.1__ +5.2

________ (18d) _________ +8.7_ +12.3_ +10.0 __ +11.7__ +9.2__ +3.1 ___ +3.7__ --0.1__ +5.2

________ (19d) _________ +8.2_ +11.7__ +9.6 __ +10.8__ +8.5__ +2.8 ___ +4.0__ --0.1__ +5.0

________ (20d) _________ +7.8_ +11.3__ +9.2 __ +10.8__ +8.1__ +2.8 ___ +4.2__ --0.1__ +4.9

________ (21d) _________ +7.9_ +11.3__ +9.3 __ +11.3__ +8.0__ +3.3 ___ +4.3__ --0.2__ +4.6

________ (22d) _________ +8.4_ +11.8__ +9.8 __ +11.3__ +8.3__ +3.6 ___ +4.5__ --0.3__ +4.5

 continued in new post (Dec 24th) _ see end of thread

________ (p29d) _______ +12.6_ +12.9_ +10.8 __ +11.3__+12.8__ +5.5 ___ +2.5__ --1.3__ +3.0

 

________ (p31d) _______ +12.0_ +12.0_ +10.0 __ +10.0__+12.0__ +4.5 ___ +3.0__ --1.5__ +2.8

 

Updated snowfall totals:

 

ORD _ 12.7" and DEN _ 20.3" (after 7.7" fell on 15th)

 

Latest guidance is uber-warm right to end of month in the east and tables will need a bit of an adjustment for the top scores mostly, anyone below +4.0 probably won't notice much change. The +12 projections require a scaling though, so everyone will lose incrementally. Tables should be updated by 2 p.m. (Monday). Unless the models go to a different solution, I will hold with these very high values to end of the month as the scoring table editing won't be worth the bother for small changes here. Western values are left unchanged for now and it looks like it could snow at SEA on 28th.

 

By my calculations, Isotherm will take the main contest as there is not enough point differential in the forecasts of closest rivals Damage in Tolland (103 behind), DonS (161 behind) or ksammut (186 adrift) to overcome Isotherm's lead even if reality hits right on one of those forecasts (at the moment it looks a bit warmer than Damage and DonS, this will bring into play the reduced point spread of >5 outcomes, but even without that, possible differentials are always less than current differences. Consensus cannot catch Isotherm now either, and it looks to me as though Damage will stay ahead, with DonS and ksammut moving ahead of consensus if current provisionals verify.

 

It's the same story in the west where Midlo Snow Maker trails by 108 points but can only make up 80 with a perfect set of forecasts. My provisionals are a bit closer to Isotherm's set than Midlo's at this point anyway. Nobody else had a mathematical chance of overtaking Isotherm once the forecasts were made and only two had a chance even before that (they would have needed to stay 4.5 deg clear of Isotherm but in both cases they are actually quite close and won't separate much in any outcome.

 

In the main contest,  I would have to look back to see if wxdude64 had any mathematical chance with his hail Mary forecasts, but in any case the end zone is full of defensive players it would appear.  Okay, I just looked, wxdude's forecast gave him a possible 408 point gain but he needed 504 so that would have fallen short (possibly could have had a second place finish), however in any case the outcome looks to be headed the other way. Good thinking though, game theory in play. Getting lapped by the trailing pack but it's go big or go home time.

 

More importantly, I have settled scores with Normal. Buh-bye, Normal.

[Maxim]

Can't see ORD finishing below +10 for the month IMO, East coast seems a bit conservative too.

[Roger Smith]

I based those on the 06z GFS run, will have a look at 12z and maybe revise the numbers. The seven-day intermediate values are more or less calculated from NWS forecasts and don't involve anything subjective from me, except where I estimate midnight lows or highs that don't show up in their numbers.

 

Okay so I had a look, raised the east coast and ORD-ATL slightly, ORD has a few rather cold days near end of the run and while I am not that confident this will actually happen, on the model run this would deflate a value near +9 by 28th fairly quickly. Every -5 that falls into that sort of anomaly brings it down about half a degree.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for December 2015

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ clas ___ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ exp ____ TOTALS

 

SnoSki14 ________________ 74 _  71 _ 81 ____ 226 ____ 42 _ 15 _ 20 ____ 077 _____ 303

Debeaches _______________ 56 _ 54 _ 83 ____ 193 ____ 48 _ 11 _ 00 ____ 059 _____ 252

Maxim ___________________ 39 _ 41 _ 57 ____ 137 ____ 61 _ 16 _ 00 ____ 077 _____ 214

Damage in Tolland _________ 45 _ 38 _ 42 ____ 125 ____ 48 _ 18 _ 16 ____ 082 _____ 207

ksammut _________________ 30 _ 35 _ 45 ____ 110 ____ 46 _ 22 _ 26 ____ 094 _____ 204

DonSutherland.1 ___________42 _ 38 _ 47 ____ 127 ____ 52 _ 25 _ 00 ____ 077 _____ 204

Mallow ___________________32 _ 29 _ 42 ____ 103 ____ 46 _ 27 _ 22 ____ 095 _____ 198

Isotherm __________________31 _ 31 _ 42 ____ 104 ____ 49 _ 22 _ 00 ____ 071 _____ 175

Roger Smith _______________32 _ 34 _ 40 ____ 106 ____ 48 _ 20 _ 00 ____ 068 _____ 174

Rjay _____________________35 _ 35 _ 44 ____ 114 ____ 41 _ 12 _ 00 ____ 053 _____ 167

wxallannj _________________ 28 _ 26 _ 39 ____ 093 ____ 27 _ 17 _ 24 ____ 068 _____ 161

dmillz25 __________________ 30 _ 30 _ 41 ____ 101 ____ 43 _ 16 _ 00 ____ 059 _____ 160

nzucker __________________ 25 _ 29 _ 38 ____ 092 ____ 50 _ 13 _ 00 ____ 063 _____ 155

RodneyS _________________ 25 _ 30 _ 42 ____ 097 ____ 37 _ 20 _ 00 ____ 057 _____ 154

..

Consensus ________________30 _ 29 _ 39 ____ 098 ____ 37 _ 15 _ 00 ____ 052 _____ 150

..

hudsonvalley21 ____________27 _ 26 _ 31 ____ 084 ____ 28 _ 22 _ 10 ____ 060 _____ 144

snow88 __________________ 13 _ 16 _ 26 ____ 055 ____ 26 _ 15 _ 40 ____ 081 _____ 136

OHweather _______________ 35 _ 34 _ 38 ____ 107 ____ 26 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 026 _____ 133

Midlo Snow Maker __________30 _ 29 _ 33 ____ 092 ____ 19 _ 15 _ 00 ____ 034 _____ 126

SD ______________________ 17 _ 15 _ 19 ____ 051 ____ 26 _ 08 _ 00 ____ 034 _____ 085

BKViking _________________ 22 _ 20 _ 26 ____ 068 ____ 16 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 016 _____ 084

blazess556 _______________ 21 _ 20 _ 27 ____ 068 ____ 14 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 014 _____ 082

Stebo ____________________18 _ 18 _ 25 ____ 061 ____ 12 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 012 _____ 073

Tom _____________________23 _ 14 _ 18 ____ 055 ____ 13 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 013 _____ 068

Tenman Johnson ___________04 _ 04 _ 05 ____ 013 ____ 04 _ 04 _ 10 ____ 018 _____ 031

wxdude64 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 16 ____ 016 _____ 016

..

Normal ___________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 _____ 000

..

 

 

Final scoring for western contest Dec 2015

 

FORECASTER _______________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ___________________98 _ 94 _ 88 _____ 280

Rjay _________________________ 88 _ 94 _ 92 _____ 274

dmillz25 ______________________ 78 _100_ 94 _____ 272

BKViking _____________________ 84 _ 86 _ 90 _____ 260

Tom _________________________ 66 _100_ 92 _____ 258

SD __________________________ 88 _ 96 _ 72 _____ 256

Stebo ________________________ 80 _ 96 _ 80 _____ 256

 

Consensus ____________________76 _ 96 _ 80 _____ 252

 

Isotherm ______________________68 _100_ 80 _____ 248

OHweather ___________________ 92 _ 84 _ 66 _____ 242

blazess556 ___________________ 78 _ 88 _ 74 _____ 240

Maxim _______________________ 58 _ 96 _ 72 _____ 226

hudsonvalley21 ________________74 _ 82 _ 68 _____ 224

RodneyS _____________________82 _ 48 _ 94 _____ 224

Debeaches ___________________ 44 _ 98 _ 78 _____ 220

..

Normal _______________________88 _ 76 _ 52 _____ 216

..

DonSutherland.1 _______________60 _ 72 _ 76 _____ 208

wxallannj _____________________ 58 _ 58_ 92 _____ 208

snow88 ______________________ 68 _ 68 _ 66 _____ 202

Mallow _______________________82 _ 94 _ 26 _____ 202

Damage in Tolland _____________ 58 _ 56 _ 86 _____ 200

nzucker ______________________ 72 _ 78 _ 44 _____ 194

SnoSki14 _____________________60 _ 64 _ 60 _____ 184

Midlo Snow Maker ______________72 _ 74 _ 30 _____ 176

ksammut ______________________86 _ 14 _ 68 _____ 168

wxdude64 _____________________70 _ 84 _ 00 _____ 154

[wxdude64]

Well, it WAS worth a shot........lol

Thanks for taking the time to figure that up.

[Roger Smith]

<<< Confirmed Annual Scoring Jan-Dec 2015 >>>

 

  

The December final scoring appears in post 34. Best scores for long-term (dmillz25 and above) forecasters are added for whatever months otherwise excluded by participation of occasional forecasters who get to keep their best scores. Applies to Jan (eastern division only), Feb in eastern three locations and division, March (IAH only), November (DCA only) and December (multiple cases). Added best scores are given asterisk(s), as an example, 4* would mean 3 best scores overall and one more that was among regular participants not the entire field. In some cases the alternate award was already given due to a tied score so not all of the best scores thus defined are additional to the previous list.

 

 

Rank/ FORECASTER__DCA_NYC_BOS__clas__ORD_ATL_IAH__exp__ TOTAL __ best scores (6 loc, 2 grps, mo)

 

01 Isotherm __________774 . 700 . 716 .. 2190 __ 837 . 714 . 828 .. 2379 __ 4569 _2**10000..1*0

02 Damage in Tolland__ 868 . 669 . 689 .. 2216 __ 780 . 798 . 704 .. 2282 __ 4498 _3*00102..1.3..OCT

03 DonSutherland.1 ___ 787 . 627 . 688 .. 2102 __ 845 . 682 . 808 .. 2335 __ 4437 _ 112002*.2.1..MAR,JUL,NOV

04 ksammut __________734 . 686 . 794 .. 2214 __ 759 . 603 . 836 .. 2198 __ 4412 _002403*..3.0..SEP,OCT

..

05 Consensus ________765 . 586 . 652 .. 2003 __ 817 , 768 . 822 .. 2407 __ 4410

..

05 Mallow ___________755 . 609 . 604 .. 1968 __ 684 . 772 . 792 .. 2248 __ 4216 _2*4*0031..2*.2..JAN

06 t RodneyS ________ 771 . 625 . 639 .. 2035 __ 645 . 802 . 730 .. 2177 __ 4212 _ 220130

06 t wxallannj ________ 762 . 599 . 634 .. 1995 __ 714 . 701 . 802 .. 2217 __ 4212 _ 101100

08 Midlo Snow Maker __788 . 588 . 578 .. 1954 __ 750 . 777 . 729 .. 2256 __ 4210 _ 300041..3.2..APR

09 BKViking _________ 677 . 536 . 646 .. 1859 __ 725 . 763 . 778 .. 2266 __ 4125 _ 010000

10 Rjay _____________735 . 538 . 605 .. 1878 __ 637 . 736 . 798 .. 2171 __ 4049 _ 121010..0.0..MAY

..

11 Tom _____________696 . 510 . 613 .. 1819 __ 769 . 698 . 760 .. 2227 __ 4046 _ 000100..0.1 _

12 blazess556 _______ 754 . 519 . 540 .. 1813 __ 762 . 706 . 759 .. 2227 __ 4040

13 Maxim* ___________708 . 549 . 544 .. 1801 __ 717 . 722 . 668 .. 2107 __ 3908 _ 11*1*210..1*.0..DEC*

14 Tenman Johnson ___679 . 531 . 506 .. 1716 __ 601 . 718 . 870 .. 2189 __ 3905 _ 211013..0.1..FEB
15 wxdude64 _________670 . 545 . 579 .. 1794 __ 593 . 688 . 827 .. 2108 __ 3902 _ 000000..0.1..JUN

16 Roger Smith _______557 . 512 . 674 .. 1743 __ 652 . 698 . 682 .. 2032 __ 3775 _ 002*210

17 Stebo ____________659 . 475 . 528 .. 1662 __ 720 . 650 . 739 .. 2109 __ 3771 _ 100000

18 hudsonvalley21* ___ 644 . 512 . 532 .. 1688 __ 661 . 624 . 746 .. 2031 __ 3719 _ 000102

19 SD ______________619 . 390 . 433 .. 1442 __ 664 . 718 . 724 .. 2106 __ 3548 _ 000020..0.0..AUG

 

20 Normal ___________ 522 . 386 . 468 .. 1376 __ 588 . 628 . 794 .. 2010 __ 3386

 

Absolute Humidity*****___470 . 380 . 448 .. 1298 __ 545 . 413 . 520 .. 1478 __ 2776_ 011000..1.0

dmillz25***** __________ 418 . 318 . 331 ...1067 __ 249 . 472 . 536 .. 1257 __ 2324 _000011
N. of Pike********_______ 218 . 148 . 159 .... 525 __ 196 . 126 . 140 .... 462 ___ 987

OHweather**********____ 133 ..104 ..122 .... 359 ___120 ...86 ... 80 .... 286 ___ 645 _100000
H2OTown__Wx ********** 135 ... 96 ... 95 .... 326 ___ 98 . 127 ... 81 .... 306 ___ 632
metalicwx366**********___ 70 ... 92 ... 96 .... 258 ____66 ... 96 ... 42 .... 204 ___ 462_ 001010..1.0
mikehobbyst**********___101 . 108 ... 71 .... 280 ____ 38 ... 48 ... 50 .... 136 ___ 416_ 111000..1.0

Quixotic1**********______ 76 ... 49 ... 60 .... 185 ____ 78 ... 50 ... 92 .... 220 ___ 405

UnionWeatherWx***********72 .. 32 ... 38 .... 142 ____ 78 ... 90 ... 82 .... 250 ___ 392

Carvers Gap*********_____63 .. 39 ... 38 ....140 ____104 ... 60 ... 80 .... 244 ___ 384

Weatherguy701 **********_ 54 .. 28 ... 29 ....111 ____ 82 ... 70 ... 98 .... 250 ___ 361_ 000001..0.1

IntenseBliz'rd2014***********82 . 06 ... 22 .... 110 ____74 ... 92 ... 84 .... 250 ___ 360

EPluribusUnum **********__58 .. 86 ... 72 .... 216 ____26 ... 66 ... 42 .... 134 ___ 350

SACRUS **********______ 78 ... 36 ... 40 .... 154 ____88 ... 68 ... 06 .... 162 ___ 316
snoski14***********_______74 ... 71 .. 81 .... 226 ____42 ... 15 ... 20 .... 077 ___ 303_110000..1.0_ DEC

debeaches***********_____ 56 .. 54 ... 83 .... 193 ____48 ... 11 ... 00 .... 059 ___ 252_ 001000

nzucker *********** ______ 25 ... 29 ... 38 .... 092 ____50 ... 13 ... 00 .... 063 ___ 155

snow88*********** _______13 ... 16 ... 26 .... 055 ____26 ... 15 ... 40 .... 081 ___ 136_ 000001

hockeyinc **********______00 ... 00 ... 00 .... 000 ____30 ... 26 ... 00 .... 056 ____ 56
Uncle W **********_______ 00 ... 00 ... 00 .... 000 ____00 ... 30 ... 10 .... 040 ____40

 

* missed months ... ranks not shown below 20 as numbers of entries was a large factor..

.

Following are some stats that will show some of our regulars where they stand when only compared against forecasts that they submitted, first of all there are two who missed one month ... this is the overall rank they would have had if they had scored the maximum score, consensus which in these active cases was around 10th highest, and minimum scores of only the regular participants. I have included Rjay's severely penalized February score but otherwise Rjay participated in all twelve forecasts. These scoring notes will be adjusted as scores change in December but the general theme is that Maxim has been scoring in a top 5 manner since joining, while hudsonvalley21 may have lost 4 to 8 ranking positions by missing generally high scoring April. Rjay didn't lose much with his big penalty because the absolute scores were low anyway in February. I have also given some comparisons for months where dmillz25 and Absolute Humidity played. Other comparisons would be too sparse to be very meaningful.

.

FORECASTER ______ Rank above _____ Rank if high score __ Rank if consensus __ Rank if low score

.

Maxim (missed JAN) ________ 13 ___________5 (38 pts < con) ___ 5 (40 pts > Mal) ____ 9 ____

hudsonvalley21 (msdAPR) ____18 __________ 5 (45 pts > Mal) ___ 9 (47 pts < Midlo) __ 13 ____

 

Rjay (80% off Feb) __________10 ____ would be 9th with full score of 96 (all scores were low in Feb)

also, dmillz25 (June-Dec) _____ xx ___________ 18 of 20 who played all those months

and Abs Hum (Jan-Aug) ______ xx __ (exc Feb) __ 4 of 20 who played all those months, near consensus

[Damage In Tolland]

I've got a shot

[Roger Smith]

Western (and all 9) contest annual total scores  Jan - Dec 2015

 

 Now shown with * are newly added best scores among regular long-term forecasters, when original high score was assigned to those with just one or two entries. This applies to Feb (DEN, PHX and high score), Mar (DEN and high score).

 

rank/ FORECASTER _______ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL __ (all 9 in brackets) = ranks __ best scores (west)

 

01 Isotherm _______________ 698_785_ 892____2375 ______ (6944) = 1 ________ 1 1 2 __ JUN, JUL

02 Midlo Snow Maker ________543_802_850____2195 ______ (6405) = 4 ________ 2 2 3 __ JAN

03 Damage in Tolland _______ 638_741_699____2078 ______ (6576) = 2 ________ 1 4 0 __ AUG

04 Donsutherland.1 _________ 576_734_752____2062 ______ (6499) = 3 ________ 0 0 0 __ FEB*

05 Roger Smith ____________ 582_625_792 ____1999 ______ (5774) =10________1 1 1 __ OCT,DEC

06 Mallow _________________552_756_676____1984 ______ (6200) = 5 ________ 1 1 0

..

07 Consensus ______________612_656_686____1954______ (6364) = 5 ________ 3 0 0

..

07 wxdude64 ______________ 635_625_566 ____1826 ______ (5728) =11 ________ 1 1 0

08 Tom ___________________538_681_591 ____1810 ______ (5856) = 9 _________ 0 1 0

09 SD ____________________ 558_646_585 ____1789 ______ (5337) =16________ 2 0 0 __ APR

10 wxallannj _______________ 553_562_655 ____1770 ______ (5982) = 6

11 RodneyS _______________ 616_455_679 ____1750 ______ (5962) = 7 ________ 2 0 4

12 Maxim*_________________ 432_639_666 ____1737 ______ (5645) =14t________ 0 1* 1

13 Rjay ___________________ 489_560_553 ____1602 ______ (5651) =12 ________ 1 0 0 __ SEP

..

14 Normal _________________594_582_438 ____1614 ______ (5000) =19 ________ 1 1 0

..

14 blazess556 ______________454_565_586 ____1605 ______ (5645) =14t________ 0 0 2

15 Stebo __________________ 444_532_559 ____1535 ______ (5306) =17 ________ 2*1 0 __ MAR*MAY

16 BKViking ________________406_546_569 ____1521 ______ (5646) =13

17 ksammut ________________434_404_638 ____1476 ______ (5888) = 8 _________0 1 0 __ NOV

18 hudsonvalley21*__________ 437_560_450 ____1447 ______ (5166) =18 ________ 1*0 1

19 dmillz25***** _____________ 276_458_384 ____1118 ______ (3442) =21_________ 0 1 1

20 Absolute Humidity ***** _____352_328_329 ____1009 ______ (3785) =20

N. of Pike ******** ____________ 217_191_200 ____ 608 ______ (1595) =22

OHweather ********** _________ 188 _164_130 ____ 482 ______ (1127) =23

mikehobbyst********** _________ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _______ (830) =25 _______ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR

H2OTown_Wx**********________145 _ 84_147 ____ 376 _______(1008) =24

debeaches *********** __________ 44 _ 98 _ 78 ____ 220 _______ (472) =32

UnionWeatherWx***********______90 _ 22 _ 96 ____ 208 _______ (600) =26

snow88 *********** _____________68 _ 68 _ 66 ____ 202 _______ (338) =37

nzucker *********** _____________72 _ 78 _ 44 ____ 194 _______ (349) =36

snoski14 *********** ____________60 _ 64 _ 62 ____ 186 _______ (487) =31

Quixotic.1*********** ___________ 52 _ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _______ (586) =28

Carvers Gap***********__________94 _ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _______ (556) =29 _________ 1 0 0

IntenseBlizzard2014***********____40 _ 28 _ 84 ____ 152 _______ (512) =30

metalicwx366 ***********_________00 _ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _______ (590) =27

EPluribusUnum*********** _______ 00 _ 70 _ 22 _____ 92 _______ (442) =33

Uncle W ***********_____________26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _______ (130) =38

SACRUS***********_____________04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _______ (392) =35

Weatherguy701***********_______ 00 _ 08 _ 30 _____ 38 _______ (399) =34

hockeyinc***********____________ 00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ________ (80) =39

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (3905) =19

 

=======================================================

 

* to *********** missed one to eleven months

 

..

FORECASTER ______ Rank above _____ Rank if high score __ Rank if consensus __ Rank if low score

.

Maxim (missed JAN) ________ 12 __________ 5 _______________ 8 _______________12 ____

hudsonvalley21 _ (msdAPR) __18 __________13 ______________ 13 ______________ 13 ____

 

Rjay (80% off Feb) _________ 13 __ would remain 13th with full score of 120

also, dmillz25 (June-Dec) ____ 19 __________ 17 of 19 who played all those months

and Abs Hum (Jan-Aug exc Feb) 20 _________ 9 of 19 who played all those months, above consensus

[Roger Smith]

I've got a shot

 

 Not quite, the scores are always going to change (if they do change) in such a way that you can't quite catch up. If your numbers were perfect you would still be a little behind Isotherm. But you have second locked up as your forecasts are very similar to third and fourth place runners DonS and ksammut. Great year anyway.

[PB GFI]

I've got a shot

Good work In here .

[Rjay]

Good work In here .

I'd be happy with 10th in my first year doing this.

[Tom]

11th for east and top 10 for west, feeling good, next year top 5

[Roger Smith]

Yes, don't forget that these ranks may change slightly as the numbers change. I just updated the countdown (post 31) and decided to hold with the estimates despite an appearance of colder solutions after 28th, at this point changes to the very high anomalies will have little effect on scoring in relative terms, outcomes below +6.0 might begin to shift a few scores around. The west could probably change more than the main contest.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Tracking Report (final for 2015)

 

Last month, our total for the year was 63 of 99 forecasts qualifying for an extreme forecast award. This happens when the most extreme forecast on the correct side of normal is either less than the actual value, or when there are one or two forecasts more extreme than the actual. The closest forecast (highest score) wins an extreme forecast "win" and if there is a forecast greater than the outcome that is not high score, that counts as a "loss" in the table (but a loss shows a close estimate in most cases and is often the second highest score for that station).

 

 

As the list gets quite long, you can look back to the November thread for the autumn cases, and to August for the first eight months.

 

This month, we are adding six more extreme forecasts. That makes the 2015 total 69 out of 108 cases.

 

As some of these have been won by new participants (well done) I have shown the outcomes in two separate tables with two separate win-loss tables. The second of these is for the interest of regular participants.

 

 

MONTH ____ LOC'n ___________________ ANOM ____________ Extreme ______ 2nd  ___ W-L decision

 

Dec 2015 ____ DCA ___________________ +11.5 _______________ +8.5 _______ +6.4 ___ W snoski14

Dec 2015 ____ NYC ___________________ +13.3 _______________ +9.5 _______ +7.2 ___ W snoski14

Dec 2015 ____ BOS ___________________ +10.6 _______________ +8.8 _______ +8.6 ___ W debeaches

Dec 2015 ____ ORD ____________________+11.3 ______________ +7.0 _______ +6.0 ___ W Maxim

Dec 2015 ____ ATL ____________________ +12.3 _______________+3.3 _______ +3.1 ___ W Mallow

Dec 2015 ____ IAH ______________________+5.0 ______________ +2.0 _______ +1.0 ___ W snow88

 

 

FINAL STANDINGS in Win-Loss Extreme Forecasts

 

Damage in Tolland ___11-0

Midlo Snow Maker ___ 11-4

Tenman Johnson _____ 8-0

ksammut ____________6-2

Mallow _____________ 5-0

Mikehobbyst _________5-2

Rjay _______________ 5-2

RodneyS ____________5-2

Roger Smith _________5-5

Isotherm ____________4-0

Maxim _____________ 3-0

SD _________________2-0

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

dmillz25 ____________ 2-0

Normal _____________ 2-0

snoski14 ____________ 2-0

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

BKViking ____________1-0

snow88 _____________1-0

wxallannj ___________ 1-0

debeaches __________ 1-0

Tom _______________ 1-1

Donsutherland.1 ______1-1

wxdude64 ___________1-2

..

..

(Changes made if only regulars are considered in December)

 

Damage in Tolland wins DCA, Maxim wins NYC, BOS ... ksammut wins IAH

..

FNAL STANDINGS in Win-Loss Extreme Forecasts (regular participants only for Dec)

 

Damage in Tolland ___12-0

Midlo Snow Maker ___ 11-4

Tenman Johnson _____ 8-0

ksammut ____________7-3

Maxim _____________ 5-0

Mallow _____________ 5-0

Mikehobbyst _________5-2

Rjay _______________ 5-2

RodneyS ____________5-2

Roger Smith _________5-5

Isotherm ____________4-0

SD _________________2-0

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

dmillz25 ____________ 2-0

Normal _____________ 2-0

 

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

BKViking ____________1-0

wxallannj ___________ 1-0

Tom _______________ 1-1

Donsutherland.1 ______1-1

wxdude64 ___________1-2

 

[Roger Smith]

The countdown will continue in this post, if you want to see earlier data, scroll back to post 31.

 

December scoring (now final) has been updated in post 34. 

Annual updates are in posts 36 and 38. These should be fully updated by 1100h EST Friday Jan 1st.

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

________ (21d) _________ +7.9_ +11.3__ +9.3 __ +11.3__ +8.0__ +3.3 ___ +4.3__ --0.2__ +4.6

________ (22d) _________ +8.4_ +11.8__ +9.8 __ +11.3__ +8.3__ +3.6 ___ +4.5__ --0.3__ +4.5

________ (23d) _________ +9.0_ +12.2__+10.2__ +11.9__ +8.8__ +4.2 ___ +4.3__ --0.1__ +4.3

________ (24d) _________ +9.8_ +13.1__+10.9 __+11.9__ +9.5__ +4.6 ___ +3.9__ +0.1__ +4.0

________ (25d) ________ +10.4_ +13.6__+11.4 __+11.9__+10.1__+5.4 ___ +3.3___ 0.0__ +3.8

________ (26d) ________ +10.7_ +13.8__+11.6 __+12.0__+10.7__+6.1 ___ +2.5__ --0.3__ +3.5

________ (27d) ________ +11.2_ +14.0__+11.6 __+12.0__+11.3__+6.2 ___ +1.8__ --0.6__ +3.3

________ (28d) ________ +11.3_ +13.8__+11.3 __+12.0__+11.8__+5.7 ___ +1.1__ --0.8__ +3.1

________ (29d) ________ +11.3_ +13.5__+10.9 __+11.9__+12.2__+5.3 ___ +0.5__ --1.0__ +3.0

________ (30d) ________ +11.4_ +13.3__+10.6 __+11.6__+12.4__+5.1 ____ 0.0__ --1.2__ +2.7

 

________ (31d) ________ +11.5_ +13.3__+10.6 __+11.3__+12.3__+5.0 ___ --0.6__ --1.2__ +2.4

 

 

Confirmed end of month anomalies are shown in bold type in the 31d line. As of 1500z, all of them are confirmed values. There was a logical inconsistency for PHX which I may check into later. The anomaly had been listed at -1.2 on 30th, then 31st registered at -6 but anomaly remained -1.2, should have been about -1.5 (rounding would give a range of -1.4 to -1.6). These things happen from time to time, perhaps some other day in the table was adjusted -- but I will check that one out on the 2nd or 3rd to make sure the value has remained -1.2.

 

Updated snowfall totals:

 

ORD _ 15.7"  DEN _ 22.6" and BOS _ 0.9" __ SEA and NYC have a trace, all others zero ...

 

[Roger Smith]

Rank You Very Much for 2015

 

Subject to tiny changes in the final outcomes for December, these are the current ranks of the 20 regular forecasters in all categories. The list is set using scores for all nine locations as the first criterion. As Tenman Johnson does not post forecasts in the western contest, his rank is better compared to only the main contest parameters. And as I've posted above, Maxim, hudsonvalley21 and Rjay are all doing a bit (or maybe a lot) better than the rankings alone would indicate because they missed one month or at least had a severe time penalty in one. I've listed fairly frequent visitor Absolute Humidity, and dmillz25 who started in June and has been a regular since then. Obviously their ranks are not a fair comparison and I've shown where they actually stand in previous posts.

 

Ranks of Consensus and Normal do not count when tabulating ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

 

Now in table format. It will probably be self-evident but legend to table is as follows:

 

A9 = all nine stations

R6 = six regular contest stations

W3 = three western stations

then first two letters of the nine sites, punctuated by CL for classic three and EX for expanded three

best scores then ranked (I have avoided BS) under Best (6,3) for the two groups, final column is the ranking of best scores for months. 

 

FORECASTER _____ A9_R6_W3_DC,NY,BO (cl) ___OR,AT,IAH(ex) ___ DE,PH,SE __ Best (6,3) __ Months

 

Isotherm ___________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 ___ 4 _ 1 _ 2 __ 3 ___ 2 _10_ 3 __ 1* ___ 1 _ 2 _ 1 ___ t11 _  4 ____ -- .. t1

 

Damage in Tolland ___ 2 _ 2 _ 3 ___ 1 _ 3 _ 3 __ 1 ___ 3 _ 2 _17 __ 3 ___ 2 _ 4 _ 5 ___ t 6__ 2 ____ t3 .. t5

 

Don Sutherland 1 ____ 3 _ 3 _ 4 ___ 3 _ 4 _ 4 __ 4 ___ 1 _16 _ 5 __ 2 ___ 6 _ 5 _ 4 ___ t 6_ t17th ___ 1 .. t5

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____4 _ 8 _ 2 ___ 2 _ 8 _13__ 8 ___ 7 _ 3 _15 __ 5 ___10 _ 1 _ 2 ___ t 3__ 1 ____ t3 .. t5

 

Consensus _________ 5 _ 5 _ 7 ___ 6 _ 9 _ 5 __ 6 ___ 3 _ 5 _ 5 __ 1 ___ 5 _ 7 _ 6 ___ --- __ t5 ____ -- .. --

 

Mallow _____________5 _ 5 _ 6 ___ 7 _ 6 _11__ 7 ___12 _ 4 _ 8 __ 6 ___ 9 _ 3 _ 7 ___ 1 __t8 ____ t3 ..--

 

wxallannj ___________ 6 _ t6_10 ___ 6_ 7 _ 8 __ 6 ___11 _12 _ 6 __ 9 ___ 8 _12_ 9 ___t11__ -- ____ -- .. --

 

RodneyS ___________ 7 _ t6_11 ___ 5_ 5 _ 7 __ 5 ___16 _ 1 _14__12 ___ 4 _18_ 6 ___t 3__ 3 ____ -- .. --

 

ksammut ___________ 8 _ 4 _17 ___10_ 2 _ 1 __ 2 ___ 6 _19_ 2 __10 ___ 16 _19_10___ 2 __t12____  2 .. t5

 

Tom _______________9 _11 _ 8 ___12_17 _ 9 __11 ___ 4 _t13_10 _t 7___11_ 6 _11___t19__t12____ -- .. --

 

Roger Smith ________10 _16 _ 5 ___19_t15_ 5 __15 ___15_t13_18__18___ 5 _t9_ 3 ___ t 9__ 5 ____ -- .. t1

 

wxdude64 __________11 _15 _ 7 ___15_10 _12__14 ___19 _15_ 4 __15___ 3 _t9_15 ___ -- __ t8____ t3 .. --

 

Rjay ______________ 12 _10 _13 ___ 9_11 _10__ 9 ___17 _ 6 _ 7 __13 __12_t13_17___ t 9__ t12 ____ t3 .. t5

 

BKViking ___________13 _ 9 _16 ___14_12 _ 6 __10 ___ 8 _ 5 _ 9 __ 4 ___18_15_14 ___t19__ -- ____ -- ..--

 

Maxim ____________ t14 _13 _12 ___11_ 9 _14__13 ___10 _ 7 _19 _16 ___17_ 8 _ 8 ___ t 6__t8____ t3 .. --

 

 

blazess556 _________t14 _12 _14 ___ 8_14 _15__12 ___ 5 _11_11 _t 7____13_ 11_12___ -- __t8 ____ -- .. --

 

SD ________________16 _19 _ 9 ___18_19 _20__19 ___13 _t 8_16 __17___ 7 _ 7 _13___t15__t8____ t3 .. t5

 

Stebo ______________17 _17 _15 ___16_18 _17 __18 ___ 9 _17_13_ 14___14_16_16 ___t19__t6____ -- .. t1

 

hudsonvalley21 ______18 _18 _18 ___17_t15_16 __17 ___14 _18_12_19___15_t13_18 ___t11__t8____ -- .. --

 

Normal _____________19 _20 _t13 __20_20 _19 __20 ___20 _18 _ 7 __20___ 5 _11_19 ___ -- __t8 ____  -- .. --

 

Tenman Johnson _____19 _14 _ -- ___13_13 _18 __16 ___18 _t 8_ 1 __11____-- _ --_ -- ___ t 3__ -- ____ t3 ..--

(not entered in western -- 14th in forecasts entered)

 

(from only seven forecasts, rank out of 21 for main contest and out of 20 for western) ... ... ...

 

Absolute Humidity ____ 20 _20 _20 ___20_20 _19 __20 ___20 _21_21 __20___19 _20_20___t15__ -- ____ -- .. --

 

dmillz25 ____________ 21 _21 _19 ___21_21 _21 __21 ___21 _20_20 __21___20 _17_19___ t15__ -- ____ -- .. --

 

(mikehobbyist ties 11th for best scores in regular contest, this pushes rankings down 15th and below).

(snoski14 ties 15th for best scores in regular contest, this pushes rankings down 19th and below).

(mikehobbyist ties 1st for best scores in western contest, this pushes rankings down tied 5th).

* rank 1st among entrants, but lower than Consensus in this case.

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats Isotherm..

 

Was a fun year of forecasting. In the end you are the best.

 

I hope you are as good with the winter forecast this year

[donsutherland1]

Congratulations Isotherm. Terrific job.

[Isotherm]

Thanks! Great job to you both as well.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Congrats isotherm and DIT and thanks roger for all the effort you put into this

[RodneyS]

Congrats isotherm and DIT and thanks roger for all the effort you put into this

I echo those sentiments.  Excellent forecasting by Isotherm and DIT, and Roger always does a terrific job of making the forecasts and results available blazingly fast.