Roger Smith Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm posting the thread a bit early to get out in front of what may be a quiet week on the forum, hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving and remember to enter next Sunday or Monday, can't extend the deadline with the contest this close ... and it's the usual nine forecasts using F deg temperature anomalies from 1981-2010 normals. A good month for new entrants as we run seasonal as well as the annual contest but the annual format here is calendar year not four season, so this is the end of our 2015 contest. Predict the December anomalies for DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Late penalties begin after 06z December 1st, and will run 1% every 2h for 36h then 1% per hour through to expiry on the 5th. Good luck and thanks for beating the crap out of me and Normal all year. At least I got my revenge on Normal in November, I think. November provisional scores are posted, they are all pretty high with one or two exceptions. Consensus leads the pack. Normal brings up the rear. Western contest a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA +2.1 NYC +2.4 BOS +2.7 ORD +1.4 ATL -1,3IAH -2.1 DEN +0.4 PHX -1.0 SEA +1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA: +4.5 NYC: +5.5 BOS: +6.0 ORD: +7.0 ATL: +2.0IAH :-1.5 DEN: +1.5 PHX: -1.0 SEA :+1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DCA +4.0 NYC +4.7 BOS +4.7 ORD +4.7 ATL +1.5 IAH -1.7 DEN 0.0 PHX -1.5 SEA +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DCA +3.5 NYC +4.0 BOS +4.3 ORD +5.0 ATL +2.0 IAH -1.0 DEN +0.5 PHX -1.2 SEA +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 DCA +5.2 NYC +5.0 BOS +4.5 ORD +5.5 ATL +2.2 IAH +0.8 DEN +1.5 PHX +1.0 SEA +1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 DCA +2.6 NYC +1.9 BOS +1.9 ORD +1.5 ATL -0.5IAH -0.9 DEN +1.1 PHX -1.2 SEA +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 DCA +6.4 NYC +7.2 BOS +8.8 ORD +5.5 IAH -2.4 DEN +2.2 PHX -1.3 SEA +1.3 ATL+1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 debeaches you are missing ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 DCA +8.5 NYC +9.5 BOS +8.6 ORD +4.8 ATL +1.9IAH +1.0 DEN +1.4 PHX +0.6 SEA +0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 debeaches you are missing ATL Fixed- thanks for the heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 DCA +2.5 NYC +2.7 BOS +2.8 ORD +1.8 ATL -1.1 IAH -1.1 DEN +0.2 PHX -0.5 SEA +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.8 _ +5.1 _ +5.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.1 _ -0.3 ___ +1.4 _ +0.2 _ +1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksammut Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +3.4____+4.7__+4.8_______+5.3___+2.7___+1.3____+0.1___+3.1____+4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA +1.5 NYC +2.1 BOS +2.8 ORD +3.0 ATL +1.9IAH +2.0 DEN +1.0 PHX +0.4 SEA +0.7 DCA +8.5 NYC +9.5 BOS +8.6 ORD +4.8 ATL +1.9IAH +1.0 DEN +1.4 PHX +0.6 SEA +0.4 Wow really warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +3.2__+3.5__ +4.1_____+3.1___+2.1___+1.2____+1.5___+0.9____+2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA +2.9 NYC +3.8 BOS +4.0 ORD +5.7 ATL +1.6 IAH -1.9 DEN -2.0 PHX -2.3 SEA -0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.3 ___ +3.2 _ +2.7 _ +0.5 ___ +0.7 _ -0.3 _ +0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.9 _ +4.0 _ +4.5 ___ +4.3 _ +2.5 _ +0.0 ___ +0.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 +3.7 _ +4.5 _ +4.2 ____ +5.5 __ +2.5 __ --1.0 ___ --0.5 __ --1.5 __ +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA +2.4 NYC +2.7 BOS +2.9 ORD +1.6 ATL -1,1IAH -1.5 DEN +0.5 PHX -0.6 SEA +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.6 _ +4.1 _ +4.5 ___ +5.6 _ +2.7 _ -0.2 __+1.0 -1.2 +1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA +3.4 NYC +3.9 BOS +3.5 ORD +2.2 ATL +1.8 IAH -1.3 DEN +0.8 PHX -2.5 SEA -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +3.7 _ +3.9 __ +4.5 _____ +5.3 __ +3.3 _ +1.1 ______ -1.5 __ -0.9 __ -1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Might as well go down swinging, as Tom Petty says- DCA: 0.0 NYC: 0.0 BOS: 0.0 ORD: -0.7 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.8 DEN: -2.1 PHX: -2.0 SEA: -3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA +4.0 NYC +4.5 BOS +4.0 ORD +3.0 ATL -1.0IAH -1.5 DEN -1.0 PHX -2.0 SEA +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 +0.5 all stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Table of Forecasts -- December 2015 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SnoSki14 ________________ +8.5 _ +9.5 _ +8.6 ___ +4.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.0 _____ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 Debeaches _______________+6.4 _ +7.2 _ +8.8 ___ +5.5 _ +1.3 _ --2.4 _____ +2.2 _ --1.3 _ +1.3 Damage in Tolland _________+5.2 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ +5.5 _ +2.2 _ +0.8 _____ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 DonSutherland.1 __________ +4.8 _ +5.1 _ +5.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.1 _ --0.3 _____ +1.4 _ +0.2 _ +1.2 Maxim ___________________+4.5 _ +5.5 _ +6.0 ___ +7.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.5 _____ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 Rjay ____________________ +4.0 _ +4.7 _ +4.7 ___ +4.7 _ +1.5 _ --1.7 ______ 0.0 _ --1.5 _ +2.0 OHweather _______________+4.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 ___ +3.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 _____ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 Roger Smith ______________+3.7 _ +4.5 _ +4.2 ___ +5.5 _ +2.5 _ --1.0 _____ --0.5 _ --1.5 _ +1.8 Mallow __________________ +3.7 _ +3.9 _ +4.5 ___ +5.3 _ +3.3 _ +1.1 _____ --1.5 _ --0.9 _ --1.3 Isotherm _________________ +3.6 _ +4.1 _ +4.5 ___ +5.6 _ +2.7 _ --0.2 _____ +1.0 _ --1.2 _ +1.4 dmillz25 _________________ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.3 ___ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 _____ +0.5 _ --1.2 _ +2.7 ksammut _________________+3.4 _ +4.7 _ +4.8 ___ +5.3 _ +2.7 _ +1.3 _____ +0.1 _ +3.1 _ +4.0 Midlo Snow Maker _________ +3.4 _ +3.9 _ +3.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.8 _ --1.3 _____ +0.8 _ --2.5 _ --1.1 Consensus _______________+3.4 _ +3.9 _ +4.1 ___ +4.3 _ +1.8 _ --0.3 _____ +0.6 _ --1.0 _ +1.4 wxallannj ________________ +3.2 _ +3.5 _ +4.1 ___ +3.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.2 _____ +1.5 _ +0.9 _ +2.8 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.3 ___ +3.2 _ +2.7 _ +0.5 _____ +0.7 _ --0.3 _ +0.8 RodneyS ________________ +2.9 _ +4.0 _ +4.5 ___ +4.3 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _____ +0.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.7 nzucker _________________ +2.9 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +5.7 _ +1.6 _ --1.9 _____--2,0 _ --2,3 _ --0.4 Tom ____________________ +2.6 _ +1.9 _ +1.9 ___ +1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.9 _____ +1.1 _ --1.2 _ +2.0 BKViking ________________ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.8 ___ +1.8 _ --1.1 _ --1.1 _____ +0.2 _ --0.5 _ +1.9 blazess556 ______________ +2.4 _ +2.7 _ +2.9 ___ +1.6 _ --1.1 _ --1.5 _____ +0.5 _ --0.6 _ +1.1 Stebo ___________________+2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +1.4 _ --1.3 _ --2.1 _____ +0.4 _ --1.0 _ +1.4 SD _____________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 snow88 __________________+1.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 ___ +3.0 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 _____ +1.0 _ +0.4 _ +0.7 Tenman Johnson __________+0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 .. Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 .. wxdude64 ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --0.7 _ --0.5 _ +0.8 _____ --2.1 _ --2.0 _ --3.0 _________________________________________________________________ 25 entries (24 western) and Consensus is 13th ranked for first six, mean of 12th and 13th for western. Welcome to four new entrants and OHweather who rejoined us last month. Will adjust consensus if we get more entries, I think all the regulars from 2015 are here, all on time ... have a look tomorrow at the November thread for updated final scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 First look ahead from day five (and day eight) anomalies .... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _________ (5d) _________ +3.6__ +6.5__ +4.7 ___ +5.0__ +3.7__ --4.5 ___ +3.6__ --0.2__ +5.5 _________ (8d) _________ +3.7__ +6.3__ +5.7 ___ +5.8__ +4.9__ --2.9 ___ +7.0__ +2.3__ +7.4 ________ (p15d) ________ +8.5__ +9.5__ +9.0 ___ +9.9__ +9.5__ +5.5 ___ +4.5__ +2.0__ +5.5 ________ (p27d) ________ +6.1__ +6.7__ +6.3 ___ +5.0__ +5.2__ +2.5 ___ +1.5__ +0.5__ +2.2 Updated snowfall totals: ORD _ 12.5 and DEN _ 11.3 (9th) _ Went a couple of days beyond the end of the GFS run as it was pretty obvious that a warm spell was developing for the east on day 16 which happens to be Christmas Day. End of month anomalies look set to be in the +5 to +7 range despite a few colder days before Christmas, at some point the day 15 figures may increase above +10 then fall back, recover some. The west looks considerably colder than it has been so far but not so cold that it would lose all of the positive anomalies built up. Very wet at SEA with over 3" of rain past two days and severe local flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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