December warm NOT White

[Rittenhouse]

What was the total last year?

 

The overall pattern was completely different last year. NYC already had multiple 20-degree days and measurable snow by now (albeit not much). This year, there has been one night in Central Park that (briefly) fell to 32.  I can't remember the last time there haven't been at least a few flakes by this point. Temperature-wise, this is the latest start to winter since 2001, which ended up being the least snowiest winter ever recorded in NYC (3.5" total).

 

There are no signs we are in for a winter like last year and most long range models are hinting that mild weather will continue. It is increasingly looking likely that we will have mild winter with below-average snowfall. That said, anything can happen. Snowstorms can happen in January and early February with even marginal cold air, especially inland. One or two storms could bump us up to 20-25".

[Drz1111]

The overall pattern was completely different last year. NYC already had multiple 20-degree days and measurable snow by now (albeit not much). This year, there has been one night in Central Park that (briefly) fell to 32.  I can't remember the last time there haven't been at least a few flakes by this point. Temperature-wise, this is the latest start to winter since 2001, which ended up being the least snowiest winter ever recorded in NYC (3.5" total).

 

There are no signs we are in for a winter like last year and most long range models are hinting that mild weather will continue. It is increasingly looking likely that we will have mild winter with below-average snowfall. That said, anything can happen. Snowstorms can happen in January and early February with even marginal cold air, especially inland. One or two storms could bump us up to 20-25".

You understand that December is playing out pretty much exactly as you'd expect if the snowy forecasts prove correct, right?  That this was actually well-forecast in advance, insofar as a 2SD AN month can be forecast in advance?

 

I knew that the back-loaded Nino winter would induce some window-jumpers, but I never imagined it would start 7 goddamned days into winter.  This sets a new record for stupidity.

[donsutherland1]

The overall pattern was completely different last year. NYC already had multiple 20-degree days and measurable snow by now (albeit not much). This year, there has been one night in Central Park that (briefly) fell to 32.  I can't remember the last time there haven't been at least a few flakes by this point. Temperature-wise, this is the latest start to winter since 2001, which ended up being the least snowiest winter ever recorded in NYC (3.5" total).

 

There are no signs we are in for a winter like last year and most long range models are hinting that mild weather will continue. It is increasingly looking likely that we will have mild winter with below-average snowfall. That said, anything can happen. Snowstorms can happen in January and early February with even marginal cold air, especially inland. One or two storms could bump us up to 20-25".

Two quick things:

 

1. 1972-73 is the least snowy winter on record for NYC: 2.8"

 

2. Several El Niño winters started with 3.0" or less snow in December, AO+ regimes for the first seven days of December, and then had 20" or more snow for the January-March period. Those winters were: 1982-83 (December: 3.0"; January-March: 23.4"), 1986-87 (December: 0.6"; January-March: 22.5"), and 2004-05 (December: 3.0"; January-March: 38.0").

 

IMO, if one takes into consideration the strong El Niño and possibility of later winter blocking (January and/or February), something along the lines of 1965-66 (December: Trace; January-March: 21.4") and 1994-95 (December: Trace; January-March: 11.8") is still on the table. A lot will depend on how quickly the El Niño fades and changes in anomalies in each of the ENSO Regions. Neither outcome would provide the snowiest winter, but neither would rival some of the least snowy ones (1918-19, 1931-32, 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02, etc.). Other scenarios still exist, as well.

 

It will be interesting to see how things evolve.

[Brian5671]

That 1918-1919 winter in interesting in that it followed 2 very cold and snowy ones in the 2 years prior.   So if we got that, it would be a similar 3 years 13-14 cold/snowy, 14-15, cold/snowy 15-16 warm/dry????

[nzucker]

That 1918-1919 winter in interesting in that it followed 2 very cold and snowy ones in the 2 years prior. So if we got that, it would be a similar 3 years 13-14 cold/snowy, 14-15, cold/snowy 15-16 warm/dry????

17-18 was the coldest winter in NYC history. I think Winter 18-19 was a strong El Nino.

[MJO812]

12z Euro has a weak -AO and -NAO at day 8. I can see a storm around the time but it would favor the interior .

[uncle W]

17-18 was the coldest winter in NYC history. I think Winter 18-19 was a strong La Nina.

the winter of 1918-19 was a strong el nino...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

2006-07  holds the record for the latest trace of snow and 1972-73 for the latest measurable snow...1877 could hold the record for the latest measurable snow but I don't have snowfall records for 1878...only the 1999-2000 was la nina...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

[nzucker]

the winter of 1918-19 was a strong el nino...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

2006-07 holds the record for the latest trace of snow and 1972-73 for the latest measurable snow...1877 could hold the record for the latest measurable snow but I don't have snowfall records for 1878...only the 1999-2000 was la nina...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

Yes, I knew it was El Nino but wrote wrong. Even the older strong Ninos were not very snowy like 1877-78 with 8.1"..Same story with 1918-19.

NYC missed a couple major events in 72-73 to have its least snowy winter. Feb 73 had a big southern slider.

[uncle W]

You could strain your eyes reading newspapers back then.

I've been straining them lately looking for stories about past storms...I found many storms documented in the newspaper the next day...

[bluewave]

First time since 2001 that NYC reached 50 or greater on the first 7 days of December.

[donsutherland1]

First time since 2001 that NYC reached 50 or greater on the first 7 days of December.

Since 1950, there have been 7 prior winters that saw December record 7 or more consecutive 50° or warmer high temperatures in NYC. Those with heart issues or other health problems, as well as those near ledges or other high places, should read no further.

 

That sorry list of years produced the following December-February temperature anomalies:

 

December snowfall for NYC was as follows:

 

1951-52: 3.3"

1953-54: Trace

1982-83: 3.0"

1991-92: 0.7"

1998-99: 2.0"

1999-00: Trace

2001-02: Trace

 

Mean: 1.3"

Median: 0.7"

 

Seasonal snowfall for NYC was as follows:

 

1951-52: 19.7"

1953-54: 15.8"

1982-83: 27.2"

1991-92: 12.6"

1998-99: 12.7"

1999-00: 16.3"

2001-02: 3.5"

 

Mean: 15.4"

Median: 15.8"

[easternsnowman]

Since 1950, there have been 7 prior winters that saw December record 7 or more consecutive 50° or warmer high temperatures in NYC. Those with heart issues or other health problems, as well as those near ledges or other high places, should read no further.

 

That sorry list of years produced the following December-February temperature anomalies:

 

December snowfall for NYC was as follows:

 

1951-52: 3.3"

1953-54: Trace

1982-83: 3.0"

1991-92: 0.7"

1998-99: 2.0"

1999-00: Trace

2001-02: Trace

 

Mean: 1.3"

Median: 0.7"

 

Seasonal snowfall for NYC was as follows:

 

1951-52: 19.7"

1953-54: 15.8"

1982-83: 27.2"

1991-92: 12.6"

1998-99: 12.7"

1999-00: 16.3"

2001-02: 3.5"

 

Mean: 15.4"

Median: 15.8"

1982-83 was the only strong nino year

[nzucker]

91-92 was also a strong Nino.

[Brian5671]

Last year was one of the few in NYC where there was close to zero snow in December and then the following 2-3 months delivered an above normal result.

[donsutherland1]

1982-83 was the only strong nino year

The following were the El Niño cases among that set:

 

Peak Tri-Monthly ONI Anomaly:

1951-52: +0.86°C

1953-54: +0.77°C

1982-83: +2.12°C

1991-92: +1.58°C

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Last year was one of the few in NYC where there was close to zero snow in December and then the following 2-3 months delivered an above normal result.

Except this winter. Eventually that southern jet powerhouse is going to come through for us. I expect at least one nor'easter that's a one in ten year storm.

[Brian5671]

Except this winter. Eventually that southern jet powerhouse is going to come through for us. I expect at least one nor'easter that's a one in ten year storm.

if it does, we're in business.   I'm a bit concerns it remains dry though.  

[bluewave]

Since 1950, there have been 7 prior winters that saw December record 7 or more consecutive 50° or warmer high temperatures in NYC. Those with heart issues or other health problems, as well as those near ledges or other high places, should read no further.

 

 

I  guess the one good thing about that collection of analogs is that the Ninos did better than the Ninas.

[donsutherland1]

I  guess the one good thing about that collection of analogs is that the Ninos did better than the Ninas.

I agree. Hopefully, once December has passed, a better pattern will develop and then lock into place.

[Allsnow]

Fwiw last December NYC was +3 with a total snowfall of 1 inch

[SnoSki14]

Fwiw last December NYC was +3 with a total snowfall of 1 inch

This December is going to make last year's feel like the ice age.

[donsutherland1]

Two photos from this morning.

 

 

[easternsnowman]

91-92 was also a strong Nino.

I was thinking 82-83 was the best match.

[CIK62]

The CFS still does not indicate a below normal day in the next 30.   Just some normal days, such as the 18,19,20 and last days of the year.   This is to be expected at the end of the month, because we may be about to break the all time Dec. record by that time and the atmosphere just wants to make it interesting.   The first week of Jan. looks to be above normal again.

[CIK62]

I was thinking 82-83 was the best match.

I agree on the 82-83 analog.   I called that one when it was over  'The 10 Day Winter'.    I am not sure of the dates, but it was  something like Feb. 05-15, including the blizzard.

[SnowGoose69]

I'll be amazed if DT's forecast verifies. I guess something like 06/07 is possible with a massive reversal later on but the overall base state globally is much warmer this year.

The Nino is aiding to scorch the planet this year and likely next.

Our weather pattern has also been locked in since spring (warm & dry) as Bluewave showed with no signs of change yet.

I bet a ton of people bust next winter too. These strong Niños have a tendency to lag causing the ensuing La Niña to behave El Niño like. Even 98-99 was fairly active winter storm track wise for a La Niña and the Pacific wasn't as favorable SST wise as it probably will be next winter. I'm not saying it'll be a 10-11 repeat but it'll be snowier and colder in the east than many forecasts will have

[Allsnow]

Any type of La Niña will give us a mild winter and dry winter....I think next winter favors a mild snowless winter

[uncle W]

there are not any good strong la nina winters....without a negative ao/nao we have no chance during a strong el nino...we are dealing with one of the strongest el ninos on record so we need a negative ao/nao in February...I still feel there is time for a major change and February and or March will have the bulk of the snow...March 1998 got their bulk March 22nd...1906 had three late season storms...1995 had one good storm in February...1925-26 had two great storms in one week...1969 was all February and early March...2006-07 did have a cold February and two major sleet storms Feb&Mar...

[Stormlover74]

there are not any good strong la nina winters....without a negative ao/nao we have no chance during a strong el nino...we are dealing with one of the strongest el ninos on record so we need a negative ao/nao in February...I still feel there is time for a major change and February and or March will have the bulk of the snow...March 1998 got their bulk March 22nd...1906 had three late season storms...1995 had one good storm in February...1925-26 had two great storms in one week...1969 was all February and early March...2006-07 did have a cold February and two major sleet storms Feb&Mar...

2010-11 wasn't a strong la Nina?

[gravitylover]

there are not any good strong la nina winters....without a negative ao/nao we have no chance during a strong el nino...we are dealing with one of the strongest el ninos on record so we need a negative ao/nao in February...I still feel there is time for a major change and February and or March will have the bulk of the snow...March 1998 got their bulk March 22nd...1906 had three late season storms...1995 had one good storm in February...1925-26 had two great storms in one week...1969 was all February and early March...2006-07 did have a cold February and two major sleet storms Feb&Mar...

 

Those two sleet storms were awesome.  I had over 6" both times.  That was some of the toughest shoveling I've ever done in my life, like trying to lift ball bearings     The forst storm of the next season was also all sleet and piled up several inches.