uncle W Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 3:55 PM, KEITH L.I said: I include Christmas day and night.and any snow, or flurries even Christmas eve.hey if it snows on Christmas, it's white lol..so I include 1962,1969,1975,1976,,1993,2002,and 2013(dusting on Christmas eve) yeah I left out any without snow on the ground Christmas morning...1962 did have a trace in spots on the ground Christmas morning before light snow developed and accumulated a half inch in spots...It snowed for about four hours before it changed to light sleet and freezing drizzle late in the day...1975 was another year with a trace on the ground and light snow in the afternoon...a half inch before changing to heavy rain late in the day...The Christmas night storm in 1969 hurts still...The worst part was I had to work the day after Christmas and walking to the train in 5" of slush with heavy rain falling was a low point in weather watching for me...1976 with a surprise snowfall Christmas night had a lot of wasted cold before that...1993 had light snow late Christmas eve and again Christmas night...a dusting for both events...1959 to 1963 had some snow on the ground and 1964's snow cover melted Christmas eve in heavy fog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Anyone want to bother putting up the GFS MOS for the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 7:24 PM, uncle W said: yeah I left out any without snow on the ground Christmas morning...1962 did have a trace in spots on the ground Christmas morning before light snow developed and accumulated a half inch in spots...It snowed for about four hours before it changed to light sleet and freezing drizzle late in the day...1975 was another year with a trace on the ground and light snow in the afternoon...a half inch before changing to heavy rain late in the day...The Christmas night storm in 1969 hurts still...The worst part was I had to work the day after Christmas and walking to the train in 5" of slush with heavy rain falling was a low point in weather watching for me...1976 with a surprise snowfall Christmas night had a lot of wasted cold before that...1993 had light snow late Christmas eve and again Christmas night...a dusting for both events...1959 to 1963 had some snow on the ground and 1964's snow cover melted Christmas eve in heavy fog... I seen to remember it snowing an inch or two Christmas Eve 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Only twice in recorded history has Central Park recorded 0" of snow through December: - 2006-7 (12.4" for the rest of the season) - 1877-8 (8.1" for the rest of the season) This year has a good chance to be the third time ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 1:41 PM, Rittenhouse said: Only twice in recorded history has Central Park recorded 0" of snow through December: - 2006-7 (12.4" for the rest of the season) - 1877-8 (8.1" for the rest of the season) This year has a good chance to be the third time ever. Its December 7th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 1:41 PM, Rittenhouse said: Only twice in recorded history has Central Park recorded 0" of snow through December: - 2006-7 (12.4" for the rest of the season) - 1877-8 (8.1" for the rest of the season) This year has a good chance to be the third time ever. It does, but even last year which was mild and rainy, there was measureable snow. A fluke .5 on 12/31 could do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 1:41 PM, Rittenhouse said: Only twice in recorded history has Central Park recorded 0" of snow through December: - 2006-7 (12.4" for the rest of the season) - 1877-8 (8.1" for the rest of the season) This year has a good chance to be the third time ever. What was the total last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 1:41 PM, Rittenhouse said: Only twice in recorded history has Central Park recorded 0" of snow through December: - 2006-7 (12.4" for the rest of the season) - 1877-8 (8.1" for the rest of the season) This year has a good chance to be the third time ever. It's crazy in that late 1800s ice age they pulled off a December and winter like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 2:33 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It's crazy in that late 1800s ice age they pulled off a December and winter like that there was a major el nino in 1878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 2:33 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It's crazy in that late 1800s ice age they pulled off a December and winter like that it looks like the 8.1" of snow that fell in 1878 came on Jan. 31st to February 1st..If you look at the dailies for that year it only has a few days that could have a trace or dusting of snow besides the 8" fall....that was a big storm on the coast... 1878 storm from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 2:38 PM, forkyfork said: there was a major el nino in 1878 How is this known? Never understood that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:22 PM, psv88 said: How is this known? Never understood that. There are lots of proxies that can be used to infer when a strong Nino happened. You just calibrate against modern direct measurement. It's straightforward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 So I work with a great, unimpeded 20-30 mile view out over the Upper N Harbor. So I have a good sense of visibilities. And today is the worst visibility I've seen on a non-fog, clear sky day in the 5 years I've had this view. What gives? I see that the NWS issued an air quality alert so it's not just me. Its not wildfire season upstream. Are we under an inversion? Seems odd given that the clear sky / breeze should mix things up at the coast. EDIT: Based on the JFK obs, we should be mixed out but vis's still look to be in the 7-8 mile range, which is VERY low for this time of year. Unheard of, even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 What looked like a rainy and potentially stormy week a few days ago now appears to be nothing more than a cold frontal passage late this coming weekend or early next week. The 00z ECMWF had less than a half inch of QPF for our area for the next ten days. That's pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: What looked like a rainy and potentially stormy week a few days ago now appears to be nothing more than a cold frontal passage late this coming weekend or early next week. The 00z ECMWF had less than a half inch of QPF for our area for the next ten days. That's pretty astounding. same ol pattern. We often see a "turn to cold and stormy" in the longer term models only to verify as warm/dry and if there is an event, it underperforms. We have a shot around here to finish 10-12 inches below normal rainfall for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:22 PM, psv88 said: How is this known? Never understood that. Here's a paper that provides some insight: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Luc_Ortlieb/publication/273203998_The_Documented_Historical_Record_of_El_Nino_Events_in_Peru_An_Update_of_the_Quinn_Record_%28Sixteenth_through_Nineteenth_Centuries%29/links/54fb78e60cf20700c5e70d1c.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:47 PM, donsutherland1 said: Here's a paper that provides some insight: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Luc_Ortlieb/publication/273203998_The_Documented_Historical_Record_of_El_Nino_Events_in_Peru_An_Update_of_the_Quinn_Record_%28Sixteenth_through_Nineteenth_Centuries%29/links/54fb78e60cf20700c5e70d1c.pdf I believe that paper is a bit dated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:53 PM, Drz1111 said: I believe that paper is a bit dated now. It's dated, but it describes how early El Niño events were identified. The methodology has since been refined and reconstructions improved. Regional data from Asia and Africa, use of ensembles, etc. all have contributed to the enhanced understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:33 PM, Drz1111 said: So I work with a great, unimpeded 20-30 mile view out over the Upper N Harbor. So I have a good sense of visibilities. And today is the worst visibility I've seen on a non-fog, clear sky day in the 5 years I've had this view. What gives? I see that the NWS issued an air quality alert so it's not just me. Its not wildfire season upstream. Are we under an inversion? Seems odd given that the clear sky / breeze should mix things up at the coast. EDIT: Based on the JFK obs, we should be mixed out but vis's still look to be in the 7-8 mile range, which is VERY low for this time of year. Unheard of, even. Inversion was pretty impressive this morning, heavy freezing fog and thick frost down at about 125', but only needed to go to 500' to get clearer skies and warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 The best part of the 12z GFS run today was the +12C to +16C 850's at hr 384. Surface temps pushing 70 degrees on 12/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Not exactly the best source regions for December air masses: 12/12/2015: 12/13/2015: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 5:15 PM, IsentropicLift said: The best part of the 12z GFS run today was the +12C to +16C 850's at hr 384. Surface temps pushing 70 degrees on 12/23. Amazing. Last year we had 60+ on 12/24 but it was part of a cutter so cheap warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 5:15 PM, IsentropicLift said: The best part of the 12z GFS run today was the +12C to +16C 850's at hr 384. Surface temps pushing 70 degrees on 12/23. The good news is, everything that happens in fantasy land on the GFS turns out verifying the opposite! So we're in for a deep cold shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 This says it all...rain to Hudson's Bay! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 2:41 PM, uncle W said: it looks like the 8.1" of snow that fell in 1878 came on Jan. 31st to February 1st..If you look at the dailies for that year it only has a few days that could have a trace or dusting of snow besides the 8" fall....that was a big storm on the coast... 1878 storm from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/ You could strain your eyes reading newspapers back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I'll be amazed if DT's forecast verifies. I guess something like 06/07 is possible with a massive reversal later on but the overall base state globally is much warmer this year. The Nino is aiding to scorch the planet this year and likely next. Our weather pattern has also been locked in since spring (warm & dry) as Bluewave showed with no signs of change yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 GFSx +13degs. for the next 7 days:?! http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 5:15 PM, IsentropicLift said: The best part of the 12z GFS run today was the +12C to +16C 850's at hr 384. Surface temps pushing 70 degrees on 12/23.And yet it is 7:00am, Dew Points in the low 60s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 4:30 PM, Drz1111 said: There are lots of proxies that can be used to infer when a strong Nino happened. You just calibrate against modern direct measurement. It's straightforward. On 12/7/2015 at 4:47 PM, donsutherland1 said: Here's a paper that provides some insight: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Luc_Ortlieb/publication/273203998_The_Documented_Historical_Record_of_El_Nino_Events_in_Peru_An_Update_of_the_Quinn_Record_%28Sixteenth_through_Nineteenth_Centuries%29/links/54fb78e60cf20700c5e70d1c.pdf Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 5:55 PM, CIK62 said: GFSx +13degs. for the next 7 days:?! http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Not a single low in the 30's, or high in the 40's at the park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.